N. OF PIKE Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 http://www.mattnoyes.net/new_england_weather/2013/01/snow-returns-to-the-forecast-for-some-thursday-nightpredictability-is-low.html saki matt noyes laid it out pretty well. very low predictability is a GOOD thing to hear IMO when ur forecast to be getting brush'd on the cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 AWT..looks like many of us will be shovelling Friday morning http://t.co/fySTRBH0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I now fully expect this to bring accumulating snows back to the NY border..meaning at least 1 inch. I think 00z and esp 6z really crank this NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 AWT..looks like many of us will be shovelling Friday morning http://t.co/fySTRBH0 Matty seems to think we have an outside shot...but you and I prob don't get much out of thisStill, a little tug helps a weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I now fully expect this to bring accumulating snows back to the NY border..meaning at least 1 inch. I think 00z and esp 6z really crank this NW Still going with 4-8 on the cape lollies to 12? Anybody post the 18z gefs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 it will be fun to track this VM later tonite and tommorrow am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 LL i can't get them off my usual site, can't even get the 12z gefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Still going with 4-8 on the cape lollies to 12? Anybody post the 18z gefs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 LL i can't get them off my usual site, can't even get the 12z gefs I was shocked nobody posted them good or bad. Radar hallucinations will be in full force starting tomorrow afternoon should be lighting up just offshore, lets bring this west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Still going with 4-8 on the cape lollies to 12? Anybody post the 18z gefs? That was never my forecast. I think all of the Cape sees 3-6 ..more if it keeps coming NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 17, 2013 Author Share Posted January 17, 2013 Still going with 4-8 on the cape lollies to 12? Anybody post the 18z gefs? GEFS are slightly NW with the .5" line and .75" line, slightly SE with the .25" line and .1" line . Taken literally the Cape is a 2-4/3-6 deal from west to east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 PV vs SE ridge wars. When does clearing come in tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Still going with 4-8 on the cape lollies to 12? Anybody post the 18z gefs? Looks like things ticked east compared to earlier today, pretty substantially? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 That was never my forecast. I think all of the Cape sees 3-6 ..more if it keeps coming NW Oh you said 4-8 easily, ceiling 6-12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Looks like things ticked east compared to earlier today, pretty substantially? http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/18zgfsensemblep24048.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 PV vs SE ridge wars. When does clearing come in tonight? BDR up to 36/34 on sw winds, why do I have the feeling when I wake up in the morning the year long trend of n and w will have come to pass. Enough to shovel river east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/18zgfsensemblep24048.gif compared to 12z here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I would not want to be in DC , man living on the Edge. At least we know it would be a miracle to get warning snows, they are under a warning and they have the potential to smoke cirrus. I am really pulling for them though. I hope the famous NW deform band appears' the MPM special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 17, 2013 Author Share Posted January 17, 2013 Just looking at the GFS, it's the circled energy that it has diving through the Lakes in 30 hours. The Euro has no interaction at all, it rounds the base and shoots across the lakes eastward. The GFS dives down towards the southern low. GFS is almost always too fast with these southern systems aloft. If it is slowed to consensus the timing blows and it's what the Euro and others have. I don't know if it's the setup north of the Dakotas being different tonight that drives the speed differences/timing differences later on the east coast, or if it's meaningless because if the GFS is adjusted for normal speed bias slower, the timing is off anyway. I think it resolves in this run tonight regardless. Adjust the GFS a few hours slower in the south and you don't see the same interaction, you end up with the scrape ensemble members being the way to go. Adjust down for the few bigger hits on the ensembles and 1-3" is the way to go west to east (in terms of QPF .1 to .3 west to east for now. Something has got to give at 0z I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 compared to 12z here? East, means little but I am waiting until this shows it's face. Let's see how powerful that confluence is, as you well know everything has been delayed this year Northern Stream wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 4-8" outer cape 2-4" near bridge 1-2" se of brockton preliminary calls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Potent OES down there do not underestimate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 East, means little but I am waiting until this shows it's face. Let's see how powerful that confluence is, as you well know everything has been delayed this year Northern Stream wise. This will happen at 0z end of story, cape is nowcast but if its coming west it happens at 0z end of story,pinkies crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 17, 2013 Author Share Posted January 17, 2013 4-8" outer cape 2-4" near bridge 1-2" se of brockton preliminary calls. If I had to make a call right now it wouldn't be more than 1-3" on the Cape, coating to an inch NW of the Rte 25/3 area. Probability of that happening at about 60%. There's still a chance for quite a bit more on the Cape but I cannot begin to make heads or tails of the implications of minor impulses in the flow. The GFS speed bias is probably the biggest thing in my mind for being so cautious, without it, it's mainly a whiff...Euro ENS type deal where .1" is pushing the envelope. The NAM at 18z was a demonstration how very minor changes can take this from 4" of snow to nothing, or 2" to 6". We shall see, most of these systems this year end up a little further north in the end. Doesn't mean this one will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Weenies remain flacid past the canal. Sorry kev. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 This does suck as Forky pointed out last night, another 30 hours later of that ejection of the southern stream vort max and we would be surmising dryslots. The Gulf is wide open, nice STJ and instead we are facing suppression and looking for Arctic squalls. Could have been a contendah. Next serious shot seems to be Miller B . Late next week although in this pattern things have a way of popping out of the blue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 This does suck as Forky pointed out last night, another 30 hours later of that ejection of the southern stream vort max and we would be surmising dryslots. The Gulf is wide open, nice STJ and instead we are facing suppression and looking for Arctic squalls. Could have been a contendah. Next serious shot seems to be Miller B . Late next week although in this pattern things have a way of popping out of the blue. bummer how 22 is going by the way side. We need a big one during these next three weeks to validate this potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I have no memory of events or anything but we've seen pure oes drop several inches by itself before. I don't see any reason why that can't happen here? It looks to be a good setup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Weenies remain flacid past the canal. Sorry kev.Ill take Noyes for now no offense. He's been deadly this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Ill take Noyes for now no offense. He's been deadly this winter What are you actually thinking? We'll be very fortunate to get a fluffy inch.....that is even a stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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