It's Always Sunny Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 If the Euro can shift that southern stream of energy NE then it might align with GFS QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 GFS actually looks like almost 1/2 inch to CHH area actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Tickle tickle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 She almost grabs it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Tickle tickle You'll be very fortunate to see some snow showers out of this. Its a non-event away from the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Well the only thing keepin me from havin too much hope of less second miracles is will's post. I don't ever remember him putting the kibbosh on a sysytem for most of the area then it doing much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 GFS actually looks like almost 1/2 inch to CHH area actually. it didn't move the .5" line much either way at all, it just shrunk the NW extent. The naysayers were dancing in the endzone an hour ago...we'll have to wait and see if every TV and NOAA met from here to DC was wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Will is there any last second things that could make this more of an event toward bos, I mean anything!? To shift confluence north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I was thinking the same thing close She almost grabs it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Will is there any last second things that could make this more of an event toward bos, I mean anything!? To shift confluence north There's not a whole lot...if we can somehow slow down the PV slowly moving ESE then we could bring it a tick NW. Or if the energy diving in from the plains is much sharper than guidance has, then it would try and phase with the southern stream...but its just not potent enough and the northern stream acts to suppress it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Thanks. 4 inches new in wakefield,ma today. Nice event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I really don't see potential for this moving too far nw theres no time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 it didn't move the .5" line much either way at all, it just shrunk the NW extent. The naysayers were dancing in the endzone an hour ago...we'll have to wait and see if every TV and NOAA met from here to DC was wrong. I don't think anyone was talking about the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I really don't see potential for this moving too far nw theres no time Only way it could happen is like Will said. It'd have to happen soon though because it's getting to within that window where offshore activity is more favored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 UK sped up, and is probably at least as close as it was before...can't see the critical map but can see RH fields. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 RGEM actually came in a smidge wetter...I mean barely. Also stronger. So...we'll see. Building towards consensus of 1-3" of synoptic snows on the Cape, maybe some enhancement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 HPC 4+ is 10-40% over SE MA, they still have low 10% probs for 8+ over parts of the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Close: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Close: ImageUploadedByTapatalk1358376094.619518.jpg Whats that Phil rh from Ukie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Yeah Phil, good 850-500 RH gets to the 95 corridor. Certainly a potentially fun few inches at least down that way. It's about time you guys aren't on the outside looking in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 Close: ImageUploadedByTapatalk1358376094.619518.jpg Phil what is that, looks nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Euro RH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 There's not a whole lot...if we can somehow slow down the PV slowly moving ESE then we could bring it a tick NW. Or if the energy diving in from the plains is much sharper than guidance has, then it would try and phase with the southern stream...but its just not potent enough and the northern stream acts to suppress it. very helpful for a weenie to know what to pray for. seems like a couple members of various ensembles that went "off the deep end" were probably doing the latter. i remember the 12/29 event had energy diving in the plains much flatter than what played out 2 1/2 days later, but the guidance caught on within 1.5 days i believe (even thou) it still probably understimated that vort max about 24 hrs out (when i recall some Ohio valley obs of planes flying in greater instability than forecast was occuring that morning) i wonder if the SPV can slow down slightly AND if we can get the trough a bit sharper. Obviously we'd need to see a trend tonite on the 0z euro and latest 12z tommorrow for this hail mary. But i'd settle for either one of those two above mentioned things occuring and giving us a 1-3 from NE mass SW to NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 wonder what role wave 4 plays out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Never bet against a se ridge bucking the flow just enough, hope it plays a role. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 well from M.A thread Ian was mentioning how the trend in this time frame is north, but that relates more to the DC crowd. Lets see what the northern stream can do to help us. slow down the SPV or amplify and phase. i don't think the second is happening, i think iwe can bring confluence zone further north maybe we can get BVY-PVD into a .25 band but that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Euro RH? Gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 where is ginxolog? 12/12/82 is second analog on list. gave blizzard conditions on cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 where is ginxolog? 12/12/82 is second analog on list. gave blizzard conditions on cape That was a great year, my favorite snow of all time later in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 17, 2013 Author Share Posted January 17, 2013 well from M.A thread Ian was mentioning how the trend in this time frame is north, but that relates more to the DC crowd. Lets see what the northern stream can do to help us. slow down the SPV or amplify and phase. i don't think the second is happening, i think iwe can bring confluence zone further north maybe we can get BVY-PVD into a .25 band but that's about it. Subtract the NAM and what we had was models moving to consensus. ARE animations working now, I'd like to post one that illustrates this point below. So as Kev would say balls out: I think at 0z we will find the Euro was going to be too flat on the east coast vs actual, the 18z NAM agreed with it almost perfectly. The RAP and GFS are somewhat amplified. SPC analysis at 23z agrees pretty well with the RAP at that time. Slightly more ridging over the SE I think is the case vs the Euro/NAM, slightly less than the GFS. Upstream north of ND, and this is the area that the GFS dives into the southern Lakes...the water vapor/RAP support the GFS having very good positioning on that lead feature. The Euro has bounced around a bit on this and is in concert with the 18z NAM in diving almost straight SSE an impulse tonight, the NAM trajectory is the same but doesn't really even distinguish it from the overall flow on the 18z. I think that's the key difference between the yea and nay camp. The GFS comes in flatter on the LEAD impulse, making room for the 2nd one to dive straight down into the southern lakes later. SPC analysis, the RAP and water vapor imagery show a little impulse right on the ND border along with the more important tandem impulses coming down - ie, flatter. The Euro idea of a single entity seems to be in error here, the 18z NAM idea also seems OTL. The GFS positioning was not bad, however it does seem to have not really grasped the kicking s/w behind the lead north of MT right now. I don't know what to make of it but pretty clearly to me anyway, the Euro and NAM leave something to be desired. The second feature being stronger, well I'm not sure what that would do later, could be a bigger boot depending on the angle, we'll have to wait and see. I'll admit it's a little muddy north of the Dakotas, there's 2-3 features embedded in the flow. IMO, we'll see shortly but I feel much more confident the NAM at 18z was total BS based on this, and that the OP Euro wasn't amped enough. The models have gotten a pretty good grip on the big upper low in the south, it's north of the Dakotas where most of the problem/differences are IMO. It's been awhile, and I'm having to shuffle around on different platforms today. Will look again at 0z, but I'm somewhat optimistic still. To me the key will be a stronger system digging down, and I think that's possible based on the water vapor and RAP. EDIT: I'm having a tough editing day. Bottom line no real glaring errors, it'll be key to see how the models handled the energy north of the Dakotas coming into MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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