N. OF PIKE Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I think the nam is overly supressed for the m.a. Funny if u look back at tim kellys tweets he mentioned a blizzard for new england sat wtf was he tweetin about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 There's warnings and watches out for areas that won't see a flake if the NAM is right. Epic fail for the beloved SREFs if the 18z NAM comes to fruition. Even with the Euro being far from perfect this winter and GFS doing better than we usually expect, the Euro's 30 day verification scores on QPF are still #1 at all lead times from 72h inward. Its hard to go against it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Euro Ensm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Even with the Euro being far from perfect this winter and GFS doing better than we usually expect, the Euro's 30 day verification scores on QPF are still #1 at all lead times from 72h inward. Its hard to go against it. When they are that far apart at 48hrs out and the more bullish model is the one making you scratch your head...that's a red flag too. It comes down to the pattern.....the euro may be too suppressed, but also may have the right idea. I'll be careful on my wording because lord knows weird things have happened....but just how it looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Tim Kelley NECN @SurfSkiWxMan Not bad for storm progged out to Sea 3 days ago. Same thing happens Friday. Blizzard option remains on the tablepic.twitter.com/ZeBkYZ6z I think the nam is overly supressed for the m.a. Funny if u look back at tim kellys tweets he mentioned a blizzard for new england sat wtf was he tweetin about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Euro Ensm? A bunch of perturbations from an initial set of conditions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 dca bwi.......winter storm warnings in effect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Oh Timmy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Is Tim a good met? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 usually but thats a crazy thing to say Is Tim a good met? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Is Tim a good met? Yes, loves snow and surf, friends with Mr Windsexy, first time I have seen him get radical but hey at least he has the balls, in reality not that far off when models had nada, nothing, zilch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 Euro ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Euro ensembles? In regards to placement, they have the low further north but still too far offshore for any excitement when compared to 00Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Removing the top and low Radical members for me show a 1 total, think the Arctic front shoots out some high ratio fluff. That would be cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Yes he's a very solid met. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Euro ensembles?QPF wise...a little NW of the op, but similar to the 00z ens. 0.05" runs from about IJD to BOS. 0.10" is just NW of the Canal. 0.25" is a tick SE of ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 QPF wise...a little NW of the op, but similar to the 00z ens. 0.05" runs from about IJD to BOS. 0.10" is just NW of the Canal. 0.25" is a tick SE of ACK. Have to think that Arctic front squirts out some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 So now the ens get an inch back to IJD. Def tickle west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 So now the ens get an inch back to IJD. Def tickle westIt was actually a tickle and a frolic SE along the NW fringe. A little wetter on the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 So now the ens get an inch back to IJD. Def tickle west you are too much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 It was actually a tickle and a frolic SE along the NW fringe. A little wetter on the Cape. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 Nothing in the RAP runs to say that the NAM was off on the wild side....at least that's obvious anyway but here comes the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 It'll be interesting to see what the Euro does with the upper level trough and whether it makes it dig/deepen like the GFS has it compared to keeping the scenario it already has but to a lesser magnitude. Precip amounts would be interesting to see if that does happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Removing the top and low Radical members for me show a 1 total, think the Arctic front shoots out some high ratio fluff. That would be cool Canadian radar looks promising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 Having an awful time with model pages today. GFS is fine for down south, it's slower in the south - typical speed bias being adjusted. That's probably going to put it in line for a smoosh later, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 GFS is decent. not amazing but .2 to .3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 nice snow on the cape, gotta believe some enhancement off CC bay too some decent ratios, really hope the gfs has the right idea out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 GFS is decent. not amazing but .2 to .3 Yeah, not bad, in line with the Euro ens We'll see tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 GFS is decent. not amazing but .2 to .3 Different 5 h look for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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