Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 NAM says we're Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 nam looks much further south upstairs as well as surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 a couple of the sref members are ridiculous...if you remove those...there seems to be good agreement on something like .15 to .25 across the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 The SREFs still look pretty damn good. The NAM looks the same, or slightly south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Insert fork. on to next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 winter storm warnings just flew for dca and bwi! good for them:) I'm surprised they went aggressive but I guess they had no choice. If the NAM is right forecasts from VA to Cape Cod are about to bust. The NAM sucks. I'm not going to worry about it until the 18z GFS/RGEM, only reason I'm bummed is it pretty well supports the EC positioning tonight and when that happens it's usually the kiss of death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I'm surprised they went aggressive but I guess they had no choice. If the NAM is right forecasts from VA to Cape Cod are about to bust. The NAM sucks. I'm not going to worry about it until the 18z GFS/RGEM, only reason I'm bummed is it pretty well supports the EC positioning tonight and when that happens it's usually the kiss of death. I hope not, they just issued those warnings down there for those guys at the same time this run was coming out, we all know that feeling too well, I hope everything works out down there and out on the cape for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Keep expectations reasonable and you won't be surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Stand by my 1-2" across SE MA with more on the Cape and Islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 Keep expectations reasonable and you won't be surprised. NOAA had 1-3" here, TV 2-4/3-6 WSW out for DC and that area, if the NAM is right none of that is going to happen. It's one run, not worried about it. We'll see what the others show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Keep expectations reasonable and you won't be surprised. Maybe a scraper for the Cape...non-event for rest of us. Way too much confluence for this to ever have a realistic chance for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 So disgustingly suppressed on the NAM. Not too surprising I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Maybe a scraper for the Cape...non-event for rest of us. Way too much confluence for this to ever have a realistic chance for most of us. Yeah exactly. This just isn't for many outside the canal..maybe ern PYM county picks up some OES..but probably about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 still think i like the general idea of some light synoptic snows grazing the area with some embedded bands of OES in there...favoring the Outer Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Jay is going to cry if he misses a crush job in MD while he's smoking cirrus in Beantown. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I can revel in the fact I am in the gray for 12 for the first time in 2 years. LOL. When you use the SREF plumes, remove the highest and lowest 2. Looks like they are picking up on the Arctic front producing a squall and OES on the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Thats a bitter pill to the south, from a warning criteria storm to nothing its the nam, hopefully its wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 Maybe a scraper for the Cape...non-event for rest of us. Way too much confluence for this to ever have a realistic chance for most of us. NCEP and NOAA both thought the confluence had lifted enough to allow for the precip to get further north based on some of their own guidance, but that may have been a mistake. SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY TROUGHING MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATE THURSDAY PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THE GUIDANCE SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY HAS TRENDED STRONGER (INCLUDING THE NAM) AND MORE SEPARATED BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND THE TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST (SHIFTING THE CONFLUENT ZONE ALOFT MORE NORTHWARD), <--maybe not WHICH LED TO A MORE NORTHERLY SURFACE LOW REMINISCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z NAM SOLUTION (THOUGH SEVERAL HOURS SLOWER). THIS TREND EXTENDS TO THE 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. LIKE MOST DAYS, THE 12Z NAM IS THE STRONGEST OF THE GUIDANCE ALOFT AND MOST NORTHERLY AT THE SURFACE, LYING AT OR BEYOND THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. CONSIDERING MODEL TRENDS, IT IS HARD TO DISCOUNT THE 12Z NAM. THEREFORE, THE PREFERENCE IS FOR A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE (WHICH INCLUDES NON-NCEP GUIDANCE) WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH ONLY AVERAGE CONFIDENCE AS WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL (PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS) WILL BE HIGHLY SENSITIVE TO THE SURFACE LOW TRACK AND STRENGTH OF ITS UPPER LEVEL LOW. SEE THE PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW/ICING DISCUSSION (QPFHSD) FOR MORE INFORMATION REGARDING THIS SYSTEM'S WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Jay is going to cry if he misses a crush job in MD while he's smoking cirrus in Beantown. Lol Well.... to the credit of my own sanity their snowfall map looks to be 1-2" at my campus with no WSW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 still think i like the general idea of some light synoptic snows grazing the area with some embedded bands of OES in there...favoring the Outer Cape. The snow growth should be pretty good in those OES bands...very cold not too far aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Thats a bitter pill to the south, from a warning criteria storm to nothing its the nam, hopefully its wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 The snow growth should be pretty good in those OES bands...very cold not too far aloft. yeah the caveat to this is sometimes the bands have a hard time organizing when there's good lift offshore. also the flow isn't terrific. but having the low level cold will help offset that a little bit i think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Barely flurries past the canal on this run. Will OES be primarily confined to the Cape? Or can eastern mass get involved as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Barely flurries past the canal on this run. Will OES be primarily confined to the Cape? Or can eastern mass get involved as well? Let's get OES to here lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 In DC/MD/N VA/S NJ where there are WSW's up he meant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Fn confluence cmon will? Is it def gonna be heavy confluence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 It's not the best setup in the world but if you want to see some light at the end of the tunnel, we shall know by 12z runs tomorrow as that northern stream shortwave critical for any amplification along the east coast will be firmly in the lower 48 by then. But I am still fully expecting thick cirrus action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Barely flurries past the canal on this run. Will OES be primarily confined to the Cape? Or can eastern mass get involved as well? Mostly Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 There's warnings and watches out for areas that won't see a flake if the NAM is right. Epic fail for the beloved SREFs if the 18z NAM comes to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 There's warnings and watches out for areas that won't see a flake if the NAM is right. Epic fail for the beloved SREFs if the 18z NAM comes to fruition. i assumed he was talking about SNE given our location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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