Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I'll start digging more tonight but i think there's maybe a 3 to 6 hour window depending on how exactly this evolves where that might be the better opportunity out of this. i could see lighter echoes from the storm scraping the Cape with -sn but some better N to S oriented bands embedded in there with some good snow growth given how cold the 850s are. Seems that window exists when this is south of your Lat, damn this is close at 5h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Surprised to see some of the thoughts on this. If 18z runs bang NW again I expect we'll see changes of tunes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Surprised to see some of the thoughts on this. If 18z runs bang NW again I expect we'll see changes of tunes Yeah we said that...but you have to look at all the players right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Yeah we said that...but you have to look at all the players right now.Oh yeah I know. But it means the difference of Phil getting 3-6 or a foot of powder. It's not Far off from option 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 That's what it showed more or less. In the back of my mind...these southern vorts are notorious for throwing curve balls....but I think the nrn stream is too much. Sux it's 48hrs out. Stranger things have happened before so we'll see. agree about the southern vorts - and this one is pretty strong. but that northern stream is like vince wilfork. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 agree about the southern vorts - and this one is pretty strong. but that northern stream is like vince wilfork. double teamed epic battle? DCA is in your shoes, living on the edge, lets see how they do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 If the northern stream was remotely receptive to any phasing, then we would have a legit powerhouse threat on our hands...but its just so suppressive right now. Phil's area shoudl watch it...there will almost certainly be some non-synoptic enhancement there too from Cape Cod bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 There are members skewing the mean too. It just looks aggressive, but I've been wrong before. I like Phil's idea. There are a few members tossing over 10" for GYX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toller65 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 There are a few members tossing over 10" for GYX. For Friday? Seems uber optimistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 I'm not going to waste any more time until a little later just based on what I was looking at. (not because I think we're toast, because I think it's a waste of time, so many moving pieces it's impossible to correlate them all right now). I mean I can't remember when there were so many issues in so many areas. There's just no clear winner and what I think may be critical may not be, so...punting until later. My take on it is at 18z, no model did all that well with all the little nuisances. It's a nightmare even amongst model ensemble members because there are so many features and in the northern stream they are ripping along, any placement errors at init are going to cause problems in that model later. Most glaring is the NAM/GFS inability to properly place the feature in northeastern ND at 6h. Euro wasn't perfect either but closer to the mark. There's a little feature spinning out over the SW US..GFS is faster with it...and helps to boot the main closed low NE faster. Normally the GFS is TOO fast with pushing these systems along but it may have a reason to do so this time. Hard to discount it's normal bias, and without that it won't get everything together in time. The GFS is often off in these placements and it doesn't seem to effect the outcome much like it does the NAM. I thought WHDH probably had the right idea with 3-6" on the Cape pre Euro. Looking at it, the current water vapor and analysis, the only safe bet is a compromise until after the 18z runs. The Euro has flopped around pretty good in the northern stream since 12z yesterday as have most of the other models. It's had some serious issues putting this all together and I'm not sold it's figured it out right now. But, given it vs every other model, I'd almost always take the Euro. Waiting patiently for the 18z. If the NCEP models don't back down....I think that's the way to go. I think we may see compromise coming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 For Friday? Seems uber optimistic From what I can see it's just two members, with the vast majority spitting out zero or a fluffy inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 nice height falls in the southland, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 0.1" came back to BOS on the Euro Ensm. mean. So they gave BOS 1-3 last night. I'd bet that gets to ORH/ PVD on today's meanIt was 0.05" to BOS. With 50 or so members all you need is 1 or 2 weenie members to get that much liquid that far NW in the mean. I wouldn't expect much NW of the Canal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Triple, possibly even quadruple bunner post, but the good old JMA is a sight at 48 hours.....this would be the KURO solution.... http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_48HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Triple, possibly even quadruple bunner post, but the good old JMA is a sight at 48 hours.....this would be the KURO solution.... http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_48HR.gif Just remember the Earl Barker color contours look, but aren't, the same as NCEP's values. I would expect a KURO solution to be weenier than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Triple, possibly even quadruple bunner post, but the good old JMA is a sight at 48 hours.....this would be the KURO solution.... http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_48HR.gif Yup I think that's a very real possible final outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Just remember the Earl Barker color contours look, but aren't, the same as NCEP's values. I would expect a KURO solution to be weenier than that. Lol, good point. It's actually .25"-.50" area wide on the other sites..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Yup I think that's a very real possible final outcome. You will have earned an honorary red tag for the remainder of this winter if you score this coup sir.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I can't wait to see what the 15z SREF pulls out for entertainment. The 9z had one member with 25" for BOS though, so it will be tough to beat for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Yup I think that's a very real possible final outcome. Every now and again I forget to look at who wrote the post and get excited at its contents. This was one of those times. At least you do not waiver! Chive on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Just remember the Earl Barker color contours look, but aren't, the same as NCEP's values. I would expect a KURO solution to be weenier than that. LOl I would take my half and run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I can't wait to see what the 15z SREF pulls out for entertainment. The 9z had one member with 25" for BOS though, so it will be tough to beat for sure.Holds steady for the Cape, but it cut back on the NW fringe. That weenie member is likely gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 If the Euro is right I'll feel bad for snow lovers from NVA to SNJ. The difference between the GFS and the Euro right now is a significant snowstorm vs. flurries or cirrus. And this is only 24 hours out for them. The spread of the GEFS members has increased since yesterday, which is a little weird. The two NW outliers are the most extreme solutions I've seen since Monday. My gut says they are clearly too far NW, but with all guidance grudgingly moving in that direction, they cannot be completely ignored. SREF, GFS, NAM, and even RGEM look pretty healthy for the Cape with measurable to at least BOS. Euro and GGEM not so much. I would hedge towards the GFS camp for the mid-Atl and split the camps for SNE. I wish we had circa 1996 models right now. Then this might feel like a legit threat. Everyone always trashes the state of modeling, but they do a great job these days. I kind of enjoyed the last second suprises, well at least the positive surprises, back in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Holds steady for the Cape, but it cut back on the NW fringe. That weenie member is likely gone. Too bad lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 anyone else having problems with wunderground? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 NAM beginning to cave it seems. I can't get wunderground to load the right maps, but it looks like the NAM drops the X right on the Euro spots from 12z in terms of 500mb placement with the southern system. I cannot get wunder to load, trying to compare across different products. I don't think it looks all that far off from the old GFS, probably somewhere between it and the Euro through 24 Can clearly see there's less amplification on the east coast even at 24. Not exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 15z SREF Snow probs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 winter storm warnings just flew for dca and bwi! good for them:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 meh on the nam not looking good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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