CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 It did shove the precip NW....just saying it has work to do in order to match the SREFs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 What do you think the ceiling is on this, and how far west can it get?I think the Cape can get 6-12 in a best case and 3-6 worse case. I think we see 1-3 inch amounts well inland at least to I91 and probably west of there. If you recall the Boxing Day storm a few yrs back euro was last to bring it NW. It struggles most on these types of systems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 rare to see the euro ensemble mean wetter than the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 WSW's just posted for DC, BWI and up into south Jersey Good for them its been a brutal winter down there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 It did shove the precip NW....just saying it has work to do in order to match the SREFs. The SE ridge versus PV war is very interesting to see today, just a conduit of moisture between them. Modeling seems to be playing catch-up Today's secondary band which is bisecting CT was progged 6 hours ago to be south of LI. Something to watch and will make a ton of difference for our CC peeps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 you can be a real wad bro Honesly, Steve, your are a bit of drama hound - there's nothing personal about this, dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 The SE ridge versus PV war is very interesting to see today, just a conduit of moisture between them. Modeling seems to be playing catch-up Today's secondary band which is bisecting CT was progged 6 hours ago to be south of LI. Something to watch and will make a ton of difference for our CC peeps. Yeah CC needs to be on the look out, but I think I would temper hopes NW of there. This is a tough battle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I think the Cape can get 6-12 in a best case and 3-6 worse case. I think we see 1-3 inch amounts well inland at least to I91 and probably west of there. If you recall the Boxing Day storm a few yrs back euro was last to bring it NW. It struggles most on these types of systems this is nothing like boxing day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 euro is not even going to be close It's probably 100-125 miles NW with the precip vs the 0z run which was several hundred miles further north from the run a day ago. The interval of change is closing though. I have a hard time accepting the Euro, only because it's been among the slowest to bring the shield NW. maybe it's right, but I'm not sold on that yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 it's like .1" .1" at 50/1 ratios. There's your 5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 rare to see the euro ensemble mean wetter than the op Yes, red flag maybe. I don't know, it's a little too early to really start nitpicking the current situation. WSW's just posted for DC, BWI and up into south Jersey Per the Euro, they almost all get whiffed. So obviously NOAA isn't going with the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 The Cape could get a weenie 1-3", but this is a non-event for 90% of the region. Maybe some weenie flakes northwest of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 The Cape could get a weenie 1-3", but this is a non-event for 90% of the region. Maybe some weenie flakes northwest of that. You think the beloved SREFs are that wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 This has a real chance of another 100 mile jog nw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 there is a short window in there when the flow becomes OK for some ocean enhancement or maybe even some ocean effect snows to get involved. given the incoming arctic air and very warm SSTs, that might favor a bit more than what the euro is offering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 You think the beloved SREFs are that wrong? Yes. They have a 30% chance of 8"+ from your area across the Cape...not buying those probs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 You think the beloved SREFs are that wrong? There are members skewing the mean too. It just looks aggressive, but I've been wrong before. I like Phil's idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 The Cape could get a weenie 1-3", but this is a non-event for 90% of the region. Maybe some weenie flakes northwest of that. just based on the euro right? I mean even its Ens did better than that last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 just based on the euro right? I mean even its Ens did better than that last night. You are going to have a vicious band on radar SE of the Cape...I think a few maybe several inches outer Cape is possible..but it's more NW of the Canal where the issue is. If the 18z runs still get further NW....well then reevaluate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 just based on the euro right? I mean even its Ens did better than that last night. They did? Can you explain? I thought the one area the euro nailed was qpf over all other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 What did the euro ens do last nite? Didn't they have qpf well west? I'd bet you they come another 50-75 miles west with measurable today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Honesly, Steve, your are a bit of drama hound - there's nothing personal about this, dude. I am not alone tip. There is absolutely nothing wrong with this being pinned, a metaphorically use of the the term bomb or discussion of model trends, uber close call. One that yesterday was not on anyones save a few radar. I am not going to toot my own horn nor will Saki . Just seemed very odd for you to make those comments , carry on . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 They did? Can you explain? I thought the one area the euro nailed was qpf over all other models. No on this system, mean is wetter than OP west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 What did the euro ens do last nite? Didn't they have qpf well west? I'd bet you they come another 50-75 miles west with measurable today 0.1" came back to BOS on the Euro Ensm. mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 The coveted RPM has a nice OES signal for PYM county and CC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 0.1" came back to BOS on the Euro Ensm. mean.So they gave BOS 1-3 last night. I'd bet that gets to ORH/ PVD on today's mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 You are going to have a vicious band on radar SE of the Cape...I think a few maybe several inches outer Cape is possible..but it's more NW of the Canal where the issue is. If the 18z runs still get further NW....well then reevaluate. I remember watching from the shore BID get nailed while I sniffed Cirrus in one storm in 87. That is a bout 8-10 miles from Misquamicut. Sharp cutoffs are sharp.Like you said this needs to be watched in CC. Watching radar and Sat's will be interesting for the next 40 hours or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 So they gave BOS 1-3 last night. I'd bet that gets to ORH/ PVD on today's mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 The coveted RPM has a nice OES signal for PYM county and CC. I'll start digging more tonight but i think there's maybe a 3 to 6 hour window depending on how exactly this evolves where that might be the better opportunity out of this. i could see lighter echoes from the storm scraping the Cape with -sn but some better N to S oriented bands embedded in there with some good snow growth given how cold the 850s are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I'll start digging more tonight but i think there's maybe a 3 to 6 hour window depending on how exactly this evolves where that might be the better opportunity out of this. i could see lighter echoes from the storm scraping the Cape with -sn but some better N to S oriented bands embedded in there with some good snow growth given how cold the 850s are. That's what it showed more or less. In the back of my mind...these southern vorts are notorious for throwing curve balls....but I think the nrn stream is too much. Sux it's 48hrs out. Stranger things have happened before so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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