Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I think the NAM is probably onto the same idea that other models have tickled over the last few days/week. There's likely to be a coastal system of one character or another Friday-Saturday, probably at least brushing SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 sorry, but it doesnt snow on my birthday...best to move on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cja1987 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 should be good, starts off as a fish storm off SC for the 15/00Z runs so maybe it will be rain just to the pike this time around. lol Not feeling this one, but I'd love to be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 15, 2013 Author Share Posted January 15, 2013 should be good, starts off as a fish storm off SC for the 15/00Z runs so maybe it will be rain just to the pike this time around. lol Not feeling this one, but I'd love to be wrong. Outside shot now, but we probably needed a place for what I think will be a decent storm south of DC regardless. I think we're going to have something bigger to watch, but most all guidance says it's close, but not there yet. It wouldn't take too many changes like we saw tonight though to bring it north and as we saw with the systems tonight and Wednesday....they did move north quite a bit inside of 96 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Tim Kelley NECN @SurfSkiWxMan blizzard this weekend in New England #skitheeast Tim Kelley NECN @SurfSkiWxMan Before weekend Blizzard.. Weather.us MOS of 5 MOS says 4 inches of snow @bhobservatory Wednesday http://twitpic.com/bvc8ti Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Strong signal for OES snows at least on the 18th, on that Friday before the moderation of temperatures this weekend. -10C 850mb temps encompass the waters north of Cape Cod, MA for around a delta t of 14-15C. Some extreme differentials could bring a band of snow over the Outer Cape Cod, MA region, east opf HYA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 second wave coming threw or more amped with weekend system? http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20130115&RT=03&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=CEF&INC=&NNC=NMM&max=&min=&mZOOM=8&mLAT=41.984674099176885&mLON=-71.78395562630271&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Tim Kelley NECN @SurfSkiWxMan blizzard this weekend in New England #skitheeast Tim Kelley NECN @SurfSkiWxMan Before weekend Blizzard.. Weather.us MOS of 5 MOS says 4 inches of snow @bhobservatory Wednesday http://twitpic.com/bvc8ti Ummm what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 just looked its the weekend system that bumps it up heres one for hyannis http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20130115&RT=03&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=HYA&INC=&NNC=NMM&max=&min=&mZOOM=8&mLAT=41.984674099176885&mLON=-71.78395562630271&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 That weekend storm has some work to do. It's possible though..But it could easily escape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yukon Cornelius Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Nice, at least there are things to track now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Ummm what? LOL my reaction exactly. Thought I'd post here and see what others had to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Pats game blizzard? Acceptable. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Might be a tad breezy for the game Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 The SREF must have some members really north because it actually shows really good probs for 1" and even some 4" probs on Thursday night/Friday. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 A foot of snow for HYA! lol NCEP SREF Plume Viewer.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 This weekend looks good up in ski country, Nice s/w traverses the region on Sat/Sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 15, 2013 Author Share Posted January 15, 2013 I haven't given up on this yet only because I think we're a day away from the models resolving the big northern impulse. Time will tell.....probably nothing. I don't think this one would be the step approach though like Wednesdays event. I think this one is either going to just slam north on a model run, or continue into the abyss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 15, 2013 Author Share Posted January 15, 2013 18z NAM more amped, it's going to be close for the Cape with that last one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 18z NAM more amped, it's going to be close for the Cape with that last one.EC ens mean has light QPF making it NW to the Cape and Islands. 00z was dry all the way to the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 15, 2013 Author Share Posted January 15, 2013 EC ens mean has light QPF making it NW to the Cape and Islands. 00z was dry all the way to the benchmark. Cool to be honest not looking that closely...kind of feel like the models will need to resolve this first wave tonight (and finishing moving the energy in the tail east) before they lock in. I think it's a cape scraper as of now. (Plus it only snows at home when I'm not here now)...we have family friends from London staying at the house over the holiday weekend...time to go skiing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Cool to be honest not looking that closely...kind of feel like the models will need to resolve this first wave tonight (and finishing moving the energy in the tail east) before they lock in. I think it's a cape scraper as of now. (Plus it only snows at home when I'm not here now)...we have family friends from London staying at the house over the holiday weekend...time to go skiing Big bump north on the GFS for you SE MA guys. Still a whiff, just a closer whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 Big bump north on the GFS for you SE MA guys. Still a whiff, just a closer whiff. Tonights the RUN of runs. It'll either be a hit tonight or we're going to see it stays as is on the whiffage. But man it's close to something nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 SREFS still trending NW, .1 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 Almost guaranteed the 0z NAM is going to be more impressive with this trailing system at least in the deep south....the northern system isn't digging as much. Just based on the first 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 SREFs actually have 55% probs of an 1" and 15-20% probs of 4" for the cape Thursday night. For 2.5 days away that would be a really strong signal...but it has no support. If this storm comes back north the SREF deserves some credit, the last few runs have really flagged the potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 SREFs actually have 55% probs of an 1" and 15-20% probs of 4" for the cape Thursday night. For 2.5 days away that would be a really strong signal...but it has no support. If this storm comes back north the SREF deserves some credit, the last few runs have really flagged the potential. Heh...at 36 hrs...heh. It may go wrong after 36, but it's pretty friggin' sweet in terms of potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I thought this thread was a joke at first. Come on guys...you aren't Atlanta...act like you've been there lol. I just can't see it. The NAM has lower skill than any of the globals outside 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I thought this thread was a joke at first. Come on guys...you aren't Atlanta...act like you've been there lol. I just can't see it. The NAM has lower skill than any of the globals outside 24 hours. The SREFs have it too...lol. But seriously, it might have a 5% chance, but its silly to completely rule it out 2.5-3 days away. Even on the gfs it isn't THAT far from something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 I thought this thread was a joke at first. Come on guys...you aren't Atlanta...act like you've been there lol. I just can't see it. The NAM has lower skill than any of the globals outside 24 hours. This is a potential bomb on the NAM OSU. At various times over the last week just about every operational model developed this low. It's coming out of Mexico and the deep SW, two areas that over the years are poorly modeled. I suspect we see this trend continue in the other models tonight. This is very close to a major east coast storm (On the NAM) And I might add 48 or so hours ago this event that now will extend into NH and ME was a total miss even in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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