tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2013 Author Share Posted January 15, 2013 12z rgem looks a little warmer than the nam. Still all frozen/freezing in lehigh valley on north and a good amount of frozen by ukt and northeastern part of bucks county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Delco zilch. Lol it's ok. Just keeps my yard swampy. You'll probably get some sleet or frz rn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I'll take a cold rain over freezing rain, sleet is fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 You'll probably get some sleet or frz rn wouldn't count on it. UNless its front end, but we'll "torch" pretty quickly here in extreme SEPA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Just getting up and looking at the morning NAM and GFS progged soundings... looks sleety and rainy around TTN. Could be a light coating of sleet there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Have fun with the sloppy wintry mix south of the 2-4" line. I'll be enjoying a nice cold rain IMBY http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/blog/16/entry-27-mid-atlantic-snow-forecast-for-january-15-16-onlyfinal/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2013 Author Share Posted January 15, 2013 Have fun with the sloppy wintry mix south of the 2-4" line. I'll be enjoying a nice cold rain IMBY 20130115-16_MAsnowFinal.png http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/blog/16/entry-27-mid-atlantic-snow-forecast-for-january-15-16-onlyfinal/ i think thats a pretty solid map. I'm not expecting much here besides a little sleet and i could see the mid levels hurting the lehigh valley on snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Have fun with the sloppy wintry mix south of the 2-4" line. I'll be enjoying a nice cold rain IMBY 20130115-16_MAsnowFinal.png http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/blog/16/entry-27-mid-atlantic-snow-forecast-for-january-15-16-onlyfinal/ Agree... solid. Nice call. Will be interesting to see if prolonged ice in northern MontCo, northern Bucks areas will necessitate a WWA also. I-78 looks like the battle zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2013 Author Share Posted January 15, 2013 Big thing to watch tonight is the dew pts. Places with dew points in the mid 20s should see a good amount of frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B Dawk 20 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Agree... solid. Nice call. Will be interesting to see if prolonged ice in northern MontCo, northern Bucks areas will necessitate a WWA also. I-78 looks like the battle zone. This is my concern as well. I have a straight shot up either 476 or 309 to get to work in Allentown. I may work from home tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Latest RPM has snow/mix from Quakertown/Pennsburg northward and 1-2" and looks realistic. To be honest, matches Ellinwood's map pretty well. 2-4" range is just north of Allentown... south of I-80, but north of I-78. Call it Lehighton to Nazareth line and points north. Lollipop totals above 4" are in the eastern Poconos - Monroe/Pike counties into Sussex NJ with 4-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Need to watch the underforecasted low level cold. Places like UNV and AVP running 5-10 degrees colder than progged this afternoon on the NAM. Does it have an effect on things downstream here.....maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 12z ECM came in warmer - and not sure if it is credible at this range (mixed feelings about that among mets and hobbyists) and screams PL/ZR at ABE, 546 thickness to Hazleton, PA. Scranton/Wilkes-Barre does well. It looks like it is significantly off at initialization being wayyyyyyyy too warm. Hour 6 is now and has 32 degree line in upstate NY. Not sure how much of a downstream effect it has on this run, or even if the ECM should be considered short range. It is about +3C too warm at SFC initialization and off with that line by a good 150 miles. Could be the weenie in me reaching though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Zero celcius- 850s and surface temps. on the 12z Euro run between ABE and PTW between 00z-12z Wednesday. Could be quite a nasty area of Sleet/Freezing rain across the Lehigh valley into those extreme northwestern Philly burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Thanks for update walt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 We can still chat here, but OBS go here now: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/38850-snowsleetfreezing-rain-mess-obs-tuesday-nightwednesday-115-162013/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 We can still chat here, but OBS go here now: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/38850-snowsleetfreezing-rain-mess-obs-tuesday-nightwednesday-115-162013/ Thanks Ray. Any opinions on the ECM in response to what I wrote above with regard to initialization and do we consider it at this range? Any merit to that or just a reach? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Ice storm warnings down in the deep south right now. I still think the freezing rain is being underplayed for the NW PHL burbs as is generally the case until < 3 hours before the event starts. I'd say freezing rain advisories might be issued to the NW of PHL given cooler surface temps. Soundings indicate a stubborn CAD signal with NELY low level winds and sfc temps around freezing through 10am tomorrow for those 10+ miles to the W/N of PHL. Philly itself will probably be 33 or 34 and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Ice storm warnings down in the deep south right now. I still think the freezing rain is being underplayed for the NW PHL burbs as is generally the case until < 3 hours before the event starts. I'd say freezing rain advisories might be issued to the NW of PHL given cooler surface temps. Soundings indicate a stubborn CAD signal with NELY low level winds and sfc temps around freezing through 10am tomorrow for those 10+ miles to the W/N of PHL. Philly itself will probably be 33 or 34 and rain. Models busting with the low level cold in KY now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Thanks Ray. Any opinions on the ECM in response to what I wrote above with regard to initialization and do we consider it at this range? Any merit to that or just a reach? EC has a tendency to be a bit warm at the surface. Not a big bias, but 1-3F is not uncommon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Models busting with the low level cold in KY now. I been watching kentucky and that had my suspicions up imagining if a similar scenario plays out in pa overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Dew points are steady to falling. Mid to upper 20s in LV+ far suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Models busting with the low level cold in KY now. Interesting. From my recollection, most of our ice events tend to be "sneaky" in that the extent/strength of the cold air damming isn't detected until we're on top of the event or nowcasting. I'm not saying we're looking at an all out ice storm as I don't think there's sufficient sfc high pressure up north. But I do think we'll see more ZR than expected for the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2013 Author Share Posted January 15, 2013 nam is holding firm on a decent ice shot for the ptw-ukt corridor and i would bet paul gets into also with his elev. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 18z NAM has yet again trended more pronounced with the boundary layer cold. Opposite situation to what we've been accustomed to thus far this winter. Maybe even some ZR to start in PHL but the ZR signal is quite apparent and strong for the NW burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 WWA advisory now pushed south into the new zones of western Chester, Mont. and upper Bucks There is your 422 corridor at 12z...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Wxsim still not enthused - keeps temps above freezing all night - that said temps and DPs continue to fall here. Below is the current Wxsim local PTW sounding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I think the advisory layout is appropriate. Wouldn't surprise if the rest of the N/W counties (Bucks, Mont, Ches) were added but I think they're good where they are at now. Probably a situ where the immediate suburbs hang at 32 while UKT and PTW get to 31. Key to note that the NAM shows most of the precip falling with temps at/above 32 at PTW. A little bit while below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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