Parsley Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 definitely will be interesting to see what the euro does. At the very least i expect it to be wetter. Yeah, probably. As for temp. profiles, etc. that will probably come down to "crunch time" like 12/29, 12/24 and early November all marginally cold events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 wave 1 has some lgt sleet for city north and west. Going off 850s some lgt snow from ukt-lns on north. Not much precip generally .1 or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 0z euro for wave 2, again going off 850s from dyl to ptw to mdt north is snow. general precip about .5-.75 from abe south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 0z euro for wave 2, again going off 850s from dyl to ptw to mdt north is snow. general precip about .5-.75 from abe south. At least the euro is wetter, I just hope temps cool a little more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 At least the euro is wetter, I just hope temps cool a little more. Yea, it would be nice. But wetter means warmer, stronger storm is going to flex that se ridge. Good thing is we still got 2 days plus to see what happens. Could go either way. This looks to be a latitude storm, more latitude better shot at frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Yea, it would be nice. But wetter means warmer, stronger storm is going to flex that se ridge. Good thing is we still got 2 days plus to see what happens. Could go either way. This looks to be a latitude storm, more latitude better shot at frozen. Yea, at least it something to track. The fog and drizzle is getting old fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Man just a slight shift south in euro temps with how much QPF has and it gets interesting for the city. Defiantly going to be interesting to see where this one ends up in the end result. That strong jet on the Models sure making things interesting in the QPF department. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 Man just a slight shift south in euro temps with how much QPF has and it gets interesting for the city. Defiantly going to be interesting to see where this one ends up in the end result. That strong jet on the Models sure making things interesting in the QPF department. one thing that worries me is that se ridge is going to fight and you are seeing this with the bump north with the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 hard to trust any model right now given their general lack of consistency (from suppression one run to amping another...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 6z nam and GFS continues keeping the 2nd wave a bit more juiced. However, also warmer. I believe even chesco, montgo, bucks SE is rain on the 6z GFS... Just saw the 0z euro snowfall map for 2nd wave, brings 1-3" for i-95 verbatim. Not sure if that algorithm is correct. Thicknesses looks fairly high for SE PA on that run. ON closer inspection, 850's barely reach Northern montgo /bucks county. So maybe some low level cold hanging in there(below 850) doubt it though, with the high thickness. We can dream. Not expecting much for Delco/Philly immediate burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Gotta go with the N trend until it reverses, Best shot LV+Poconos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Wxsim has nothing but wet for the NW Philly burbs....as a matter of fact it does not show the temp getting below 36 all week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 9z SREFS are out.. toasty for us SE PA folks... juicy, but warm....(issues all the way up to allentown)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 12z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 12z a smidge warmer than 6z, which was a bump northward from the colder 00z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 12z a smidge warmer than 6z, which was a bump northward from the colder 00z NAM. sounding wise, once to the ukt-ptw line its frozen. Here is the skew t for ptw at hr 48. I don't really trust the nam honestly. I could see this trending both ways. As phlwx said, you can't really trust the models right now every run a solution is different. For the record though, which is probably the usual outcome on a scenario like it, but all the 6z gefs were colder than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 sounding wise, once to the ukt-ptw line its frozen. Here is the skew t for ptw at hr 84 Thanks for the sounding. Some nice UVV's cross the area too (42-48 hr). Marginal may just be good enough to get snow to fall in the Philly burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 sounding wise, once to the ukt-ptw line its frozen. Here is the skew t for ptw at hr 48 I don't really trust the nam honestly. I could see this trending both ways. As phlwx said, you can't really trust the models right now every run a solution is different. For the record tough, which is probably the usual outcome on a scenario like it but all the 6z gefs were colder than the op. I learned living in the southern US that whenever you see W-SW flow in the mid-levels the models severely underdo the estimated WAA...this is an event I think will be frozen for alot of areas but more likely be PL or FZRA, its very unlikely at 48-72 hours if you see that marginal of a setup at 700-850 with SW flow that the temps do not verifiy 1-2C warmer in the end. The low-level cold air as usual is probably being underestimated a bit by the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 this is gonna be frustrating to watch... antedecent airmass is, well, yucky.... The 12z NAM does inhibit the punch of warm air to the immediate delco/philly burbs, whereas the 6z GFS punches it back towards reading. It's something to watch, and see who wins. SOmeone could get the sleet jackpot!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 I learned living in the southern US that whenever you see W-SW flow in the mid-levels the models severely underdo the estimated WAA...this is an event I think will be frozen for alot of areas but more likely be PL or FZRA, its very unlikely at 48-72 hours if you see that marginal of a setup at 700-850 with SW flow that the temps do not verifiy 1-2C warmer in the end. The low-level cold air as usual is probably being underestimated a bit by the models. yea well we learned that lesson to on the event before christmas. Where all the models had a decent front end thump before over to ice and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 rgem looks about the same as the nam, maybe a little colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 this is gonna be frustrating to watch... Can't get cold with the polar jet northwest of us. Weaker wave 1 does not bode well either, doesn't push the baroclinic zone farther south. Here is the outcome south and east of the fall line: SREF ptype pops for ABE by Wednesday morning are about 1/3rd everything across the board. Snow average around an inch. Two members have 4-5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 Can't get cold with the polar jet northwest of us. Weaker wave 1 does not bode well either, doesn't push the baroclinic zone farther south. Here is the outcome south and east of the fall line: trainwreck.jpg SREF ptype pops for ABE by Wednesday morning are about 1/3rd everything across the board. Snow average around an inch. Two members have 4-5 inches. hahaha i would even go to the point saying its that from south of the mdt to smq line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Can we get a event where we don't worry about mid levels. December 29th all over again. Ugh lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 hahaha i would even go to the point saying its that from south of the mdt to smq line May very well be... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 Can we get a event where we don't worry about mid levels. December 29th all over again. Ugh lol Honestly, this was a thread the needle to begin with. It had a very narrow frozen zone of precip which at the time was over us. Like most swfe it trended north. The 12z gfs track isn't really that great of a track for i95 or nw of there especially with a stagnant airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Honestly, this was a thread the needle to begin with. It had a very narrow frozen zone of precip which at the time was over us. Like most swfe it trended north. The 12z gfs track isn't really that great of a track for i95 or nw of there especially with a stagnant airmass. Gfs says all rain. Oh well. Hopefully going forward our luck changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I'd be excited in the Lehigh Valley. (sorry kiss of death via Parsley) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Here is the outcome south and east of the fall line: trainwreck.jpg I think that's the outcome AT the fall line too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 the bigger question after this rain is whether the cold is ever going to get here in the coastal plain or is this all just long-range fantasy PV stuff? Ray? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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