tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Models have had it, backed off and the last 6 hours have brought it back. This is not a lock yet but their are some trends saying parts of the region may seem some frozen precip. As it looks now best shot would be from i295 on north and west, with sleet being the main issue around the city. Once out by paul to ptw-ukt on north west snow starts to get worked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2013 Author Share Posted January 13, 2013 18z nam, granted its the nam has precip and its colder than the 12z euro run but not as moist. Looks like some sleet over to maybe some snow at the end for the city. Nw burbs to lehigh valley looks like sleet to snow. Below is the 15z sref Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2013 Author Share Posted January 13, 2013 18z gfs is pretty much all sleet for the fall line on west and north outside lehigh valley and pocs which are sleet to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2013 Author Share Posted January 13, 2013 here is the skew t for abe, notice the cold low level temps and warmer mid levels, sleet profile here is phl, which looks more rain sleet mix with surface temp warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Right now I'm not enthusiastic about anything more than a coating of snow/sleet/slop for TTN. Though I suppose this month that would be considered epic back there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2013 Author Share Posted January 13, 2013 Right now I'm not enthusiastic about anything more than a coating of snow/sleet/slop for TTN. Though I suppose this month that would be considered epic back there. yea right i think majority of the wintry weather is going to be from the fall line on north and west, as is most events this season. Thjough i think some sleet will ping in the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 The 39hr 18z NAM sounding for Villanova/Wayne area suggests the possibility of a few hours of some sleet to snow with favorable low level temperatures. For this time frame, the H8 level is very borderline, but it looks like that level is in the process of cooling throughout the late overnight. So if the 18z NAM were to verify (which it probably won't) we'd probably see a coating to maybe half inch of snow for the hillier terrain from Wayne-Wings Field (KLOM) corridor. We'll see if 00z continues or changes the idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I have a potentially dumb question. What is the "fall line"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I have a potentially dumb question. What is the "fall line"? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_Seaboard_fall_line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mklojay Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I have a potentially dumb question. What is the "fall line"? The boundary between the coastal plain and the peidmont or at least that is my understanding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 0z nam has some very lgt sleet mainly from fall line north and west. City looks like cold rain maybe going to mixture of rain and sleet. The 21z srefs were a little wetter for both waves. Gets .5 close to phl and .25 almost to lehigh valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 For wave number 2 on wednesday, it has an inch or two of snow from 295 west to lehigh valley and out by lancaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 For wave number 2 on wednesday, it has an inch or two of snow from 295 west to lehigh valley and out by lancaster. Wave 2 looks key for down near I95 since wave 1 is too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Seems like a lifetime since I've seen this...a snow sounding in Belmar: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 thats an ugly sounding for philly at hr 60, though its probably snow, almost isothermal all the way to the clouds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 thats an ugly sounding for philly at hr 60, though its probably snow, almost isothermal all the way to the clouds Well, we know how hard its been to get snow at PHL. Looks like a similar problem here. Tombo move FTW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 Well, we know how hard its been to get snow at PHL. Looks like a similar problem here. Tombo move FTW? Your area is a good bit colder than that skew t, solidly snow, verbatim on this run. But, its the nam so take it with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Your area is a good bit colder than that skew t, solidly snow, verbatim on this run. But, its the nam so take it with a grain of salt. Yeah, I saw. Things will change plenty in the next 60 hr. Just looks like areas from PHL, south and east are again on the fence............at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 NW looks better. KLOM sounding - plenty cold throughout the column: Of course this will change again next run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 Yeah, I saw. Things will change plenty in the next 60 hr. Just looks like areas from PHL, south and east are again on the fence............at this point. That's always the case when you have a marginal setup and limited cold air source. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 rgem is mainly rain from lehigh valley south. Gets some decent precip to into the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 rgem is mainly rain from lehigh valley south. Gets some decent precip to into the region. This is for the first wave, right? The second wave has more potential to give frozen precipitation IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 This is for the first wave, right? The second wave has more potential to give frozen precipitation IMO. yea, first wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 GFS is warmer. Rain in most of SE Pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 gfs is pretty much rain south of the ptw-ukt line, even after an intial frozen scenario it goes to rain. Lehigh valley is majority frozen then probably switches over to rain at tail end. Amplifies that 2nd wave pretty good, thus more se ridge and warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 My sources say the UKMET has plenty of juice with borderline temp. profiles similar to the NAM rain/snow line near I-95. I haven't seen any maps myself as of yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 My sources say the UKMET has plenty of juice with borderline temp. profiles similar to the NAM rain/snow line near I-95. I haven't seen any maps myself as of yet. its definitely wetter, but from what i have seen the thermals look close to the gfs. Though all i can see is hr 48 and 60, when all the action is in between, doh.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 its definitely wetter, but from what i have seen the thermals look close to the gfs. Though all i can see is hr 48 and 60, when all the action is in between, doh.. lol. yup. Oh well, something to track while we wait on the real cold to get here...............someday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Where have we seen this scenario before??.......Hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 Where have we seen this scenario before??.......Hmmm definitely will be interesting to see what the euro does. At the very least i expect it to be wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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