dryslot Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Looks like .50" up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 definitely would prefer a flatter wave. anything amped like that is going to be a fail outside of maybe NW CT and then GC over to Will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 If I remember right, last storm GFS was too warm as well, look how that turned out. 2-4 Pike south 1-3 pike north. rain/mix on coast. gfs did a fantastic job on 12/29 sniffing out ml and boundary issues for coastal locales and eastern mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Mid-level problems for the south coast on the GFS. Yeah it's really a fine line. I agree with you that we're going to see it trend north which means borderline areas (me) are going to get wet, and areas that feel they're solidly in the snow now may end up wet/borderline. Further north wave is going to mean the cold air didn't get as far south, JMHO. Good deal for many though (for the Wednesday wave, not the one that misses OTS tonight and Tuesday) definitely would prefer a flatter wave. anything amped like that is going to be a fail outside of maybe NW CT and then GC over to Will. Totally agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Well the amped GFS now may make the Saturday system more palatable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 once these systems start coming N on the models they usually don't stop until the day of the event... the nam is probably garbage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Possible squalls thurs with that cold front to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 gfs did a fantastic job on 12/29 sniffing out ml and boundary issues for coastal locales and eastern mass yes it did, I could have sworn it was a little too agressive with the mixing though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 funny how the GFS has like -32C air into N. Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 funny how the GFS has like -32C air into N. Maine. Can't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 once these systems start coming N on the models they usually don't stop until the day of the event... the nam is garbage FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Mid-level problems for the south coast on the GFS.Yeah inland is fine on GFS but you have to wonder if GFs is too warm again for coastal folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 gfs did a fantastic job on 12/29 sniffing out ml and boundary issues for coastal locales and eastern mass I believe it was the nam that nailed the ml warming. Euro and gfs to cold. The track on the gfs is pretty much what does in the coast in this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Yeah inland is fine on GFS but you have to wonder if GFs is too warm again for coastal folks even you taint on the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Ukie is really amped again too...looks like south of the pike may have some issues like on the GFS, though everyone starts as snow. Missing hour 54 is annoying, but we get enough info from 48 and 60 to see how it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Might be a northern Georgia mtns special on this run. Rain snow mix for Atlanta? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Very cold Thursday. Cold blows in a day early. Messenger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 even you taint on the gfs he probably starts as snow but it goes to sleet then rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Very cold Thursday. Cold blows in a day early. Messenger. Looks like western nc gets snow on Thursday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Man I was hoping coastal areas could get snow on this one instead of just inland. Lets see how Euro looks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 This winter blows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 he probably starts as snow but it goes to sleet then rain. Do you think sleet is really in play in this type of setup? There's no real surface CAD nor amped up mid-level low cutting... I would think it's either rain with a torched BL or else snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Warm up this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 This winter blows. NAM and GFS are on completely different pages re Thursday and Friday as well... GFS crushes it with the confluence and NAM (yes its 84hrs and crap) has it coming N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Do you think sleet is really in play in this type of setup? There's no real surface CAD nor amped up mid-level low cutting... I would think it's either rain with a torched BL or else snow. The soundigns on GFS show a colder layer underneath 850mb when I look at the BDL sounding, so there could def be some sleet in this. It wouldn't be a peppering sleet like Vday '07 or anything, but transitional sleet could happen. Usually though the 900-950 layer eventually warms too and goes to light rain before ending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Man I was hoping coastal areas could get snow on this one instead of just inland. Lets see how Euro looks we'll have to see how amped this gets. if it ends up flatter it'll be frozen pretty far south...sort of a wildcard zone along the shore. but anything like what the GFS shows or what the UKMET has going, it's not even a question down here and the wildcard area becomes CT/RI/Interior SE MA. it would be wagons N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 Jesus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Do you think sleet is really in play in this type of setup? There's no real surface CAD nor amped up mid-level low cutting... I would think it's either rain with a torched BL or else snow. there's a bit of a wedge of cooler air that hangs in the lowest few thousand feet so it's possible that some areas could have a bit of sleet i think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 What is the timing and how long is the event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Warm up this weekend. mild up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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