wxsniss Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 bubble of 1024 in Maine doing it's work... getting some northerly drain down eastern MA DPs have been slowly dropping: Box just updated snowfall map, upped significantly along coast: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Yeah it's really just a broad area of synoptic scale lift in the right entrance region of the jet streak over NNE interacting with the existing baroclinic zone. No strong PV anomaly/shortwave to spawn cyclogenesis and start closing off some mid level features. That said... where you are able to get some banding and can get a decent slug of moisture on the nose of the LLJ you could get some surprises. There seem to be some sneaky unstable layers (MAULs) out there. a few of the GFS runs were relatively "amped" with the developing surface reflection and it does try and get its act together a bit tomorrow -there's some decent low level wind fields that develop south of New England...but not in the traditional sense of what we might think of with some shortwave ejecting out of the ohio or tennessee river valley in SWFE-fashion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 The mean is really being influenced by those two (especially the one) clunker. There's a signifiant number that are clustered above the mean. I like to summarily toss out the +/- extreme runs and focusing on the others. There you see a much tighter clustering. As they are, showing .43 at AQW and .48 at ORE are good to see I'm sure Will's happy to see the .56 at ORH. Yup you got it. Absolutely. I think finding a "clustering" as opposed to just the raw mean is more useful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 bubble of 1024 in Maine doing it's work... getting some northerly drain down eastern MA DPs have been slowly dropping: rtma_neweng_000_2m_dwpt.gif Box just updated snowfall map, upped significantly along coast: StormTotalSnowFcst_01_15_2012.png I like the Box map for me, I think 1-3" seems likely here if we can get it started up as snow pretty quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 21z Sref Plumes jumped the mean up to 6.73" snow here on 0.57" qpf Very nice, Jeff. Looks like AQW has 4.6, ORE at 4.2', ORH at 4.1" Pretty even spread. Of course, some of the plumes are really tasty ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Yup you got it. Absolutely. I think finding a "clustering" as opposed to just the raw mean is more useful. I've wondered about this with the SREFs and other ensemble products... I wonder if calculating a median value would be more useful than a mean. (But then you could argue maybe the outlier is sniffing out something that the cluster is missing) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 21z Sref Plumes jumped the mean up to 6.73" snow here on 0.57" qpf wow and that is with so-so ratios. did it look similar over here? Just home...beat the precip back here from nyc. We lost all the snow here except for patches. still some in the woods though. Glad it will be covered up quickly and soon to be a distant memory. Fingers crossed for snowmobiling out the door within 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 GFS really bullish with that first burst by 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 My temp not moving really at all now, that's good for you and Jerry Scott. Temp stuck here--only dropped to 28.1/21. I'm out--game time approaches. Hope the final runs of the suite bulk up on the qpf for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 GFS really bullish with that first burst by 12z. Yeah a bit more bullish than 18z. Looks good. A tick warmer for south coast around 850mb though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Yeah a bit more bullish than 18z. Looks good. A tick warmer for south coast around 850mb though. The warmer obs seems to be verifying in the NYC obs thread...not much snow so far in that area...though there is sitll time for wetbulbing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Very nice, Jeff. Looks like AQW has 4.6, ORE at 4.2', ORH at 4.1" Pretty even spread. Of course, some of the plumes are really tasty ones. Yeah mike, There is quite a bit of spread, Not very tightly clustered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Yeah a bit more bullish than 18z. Looks good. A tick warmer for south coast around 850mb though. maybe like a 4 to 6 hour window to cash in for most areas away from the shore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Gfs looks slightly warmer to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 maybe like a 4 to 6 hour window to cash in for most areas away from the shore? Yeah I think so. I guess I'm going to have to get up early to watch this. Probably like 4 a.m. to 8 a.m. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 GFS really bullish with that first burst by 12z. Toss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 wow and that is with so-so ratios. did it look similar over here? Just home...beat the precip back here from nyc. We lost all the snow here except for patches. still some in the woods though. Glad it will be covered up quickly and soon to be a distant memory. Fingers crossed for snowmobiling out the door within 2 weeks. CON 6.33" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I know it's being overplayed but the start of our 94 run began with a similar looking radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 There is a bald man in Tolland who is going to be very disappointed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 gfs also has some sneaky low level warmth that moves N pretty fast in S/E CT, RI and up toward 95 / BOS...that's something to watch. hopefully most of the good stuff has already happened by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Was gonna do the same but the last time I did that it was deleted... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Any ideas as to ratios we'll be looking at, in the interior anyway? 12:1? The warmer obs seems to be verifying in the NYC obs thread...not much snow so far in that area...though there is sitll time for wetbulbing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Gfs looks slightly warmer to me yeah is a bit warmer but still looks good overall I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 gfs is so close to being epic for this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Any ideas as to ratios we'll be looking at, in the interior anyway? 12:1? Yeah I can't see much more than that unless we get some unexpected great snow growth....always possible with a bit of instability lurking in these profiles. But I'd keep it pretty conservative at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 What were you like 10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Gfs is not good at all for bos. Nam is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Was gonna do the same but the last time I did that it was deleted...That's cuz you do not understand what my statement means. Enjoy the snow, it begins and It's coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Gfs is not good at all for bos. Nam is. It was fine in BOS...it is ripping snow there at 12z tomorrow with already a couple inches probably fallen. It eventually warms in the MLs, but the snow falls before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 The GFS basically ends the snow here tomorrow around 12z (3"-ish) and gives us some sleet and freezing rain after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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