CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 2-4" would be a gift Yeah compared to earlier..sure is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I think the 4" for all of CT/RI is highballing it. Calling more along 3". I think it's going to warm too fast before 4" is reached. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Updated BOX map (9:52) seems a bit of a downgrade They might be leaning towards quick hitter. Not a real exciting map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Well from my end, it can't fall apart any more..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 21z SREFs still have quite a bit of spread. Here's BDL QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 Rain/ip breaking out in NYC per obs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Not for Boston area...looks like they beefed up that area Yeah moisture is expected to be further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 the one alarm that keeps going off for me is i feel like these waves have an uncanny ability to fall short of expectation when the airmass isn't rock solid. not to say this is going to fail. that's just in the back of my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Is that QPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 21z Sref Plumes jumped the mean up to 6.73" snow here on 0.57" qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 FYI... NAM bufkit soundings are just about all sleet/freezing rain for you Joe and also HVN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cycloneslurry Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 amazing to think how much the models missed this by less than 48 hours out. 2 days ago this was written off as nothing more than a cape graze...maybe. Now there are advisories all the way west of the Berks and down through Pittsburgh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 not to say this is going to fail. that's just in the back of my mind. I wouldn't expect KEvin's weenie lollis to 8" or anything. I think advisory snowfall is the most prudent call...its easy to try and want to envision widespread 6"+ with this juicey overrunning waves, but this one is missing some of the classic ingredients...most notably very strong ML fronto. Its pretty mediocre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 FYI... NAM bufkit soundings are just about all sleet/freezing rain for you Joe and also HVN. Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I wouldn't expect KEvin's weenie lollis to 8" or anything. I think advisory snowfall is the most prudent call...its easy to try and want to envision widespread 6"+ with this juicey overrunning waves, but this one is missing some of the classic ingredients...most notably very strong ML fronto. Its pretty mediocre. Yeah it's really just a broad area of synoptic scale lift in the right entrance region of the jet streak over NNE interacting with the existing baroclinic zone. No strong PV anomaly/shortwave to spawn cyclogenesis and start closing off some mid level features. That said... where you are able to get some banding and can get a decent slug of moisture on the nose of the LLJ you could get some surprises. There seem to be some sneaky unstable layers (MAULs) out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Yep. It's really on the edge for the entire event to be honest. But normally when you're on the edge for hour after hour you flip warm at the shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Yeah it's really just a broad area of synoptic scale lift in the right entrance region of the jet streak over NNE interacting with the existing baroclinic zone. No strong PV anomaly/shortwave to spawn cyclogenesis and start closing off some mid level features. That said... where you are able to get some banding and can get a decent slug of moisture on the nose of the LLJ you could get some surprises. There seem to be some sneaky unstable layers (MAULs) out there. I wonder how the nrn edge of that shield will develop. It's probably going to try and pivot more north. There is a fine line between heavier echoes and practically virga...it's usually tough to get a lot of development north of that, unless the shield pivots more nrnly....but I think that's what will probably happen. You can sort of see that already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 amazing to think how much the models missed this by less than 48 hours out. 2 days ago this was written off as nothing more than a cape graze...maybe. Now there are advisories all the way west of the Berks and down through Pittsburgh. Yeah I agree how models pulled this together a little last minute but a t-2 day forecast that is a bit off isn't alarming either where models are still uncertain so it's water under the bridge for me regarding how this will fare out. NWS also likes to cover their turf so that's why it comes off as a bit exaggerated imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Radar does look pretty healthy.... I know it's being overplayed but the start of our 94 run began with a similar looking radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 BOS with a due north wind at 6kt and a 22F dewpoint...Scooter is ready to go balls to the wall with 2" for BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 FWIW: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I wouldn't expect KEvin's weenie lollis to 8" or anything. I think advisory snowfall is the most prudent call...its easy to try and want to envision widespread 6"+ with this juicey overrunning waves, but this one is missing some of the classic ingredients...most notably very strong ML fronto. Its pretty mediocre. i stepped away for several hours and came back just now...funny how a fresh set of eyes can sort of change your thought process even when most everything looks the same. maybe it's just stepping away from reading kevin's posts calling for 7 to 8" i still think the BOX map is pretty much on target...maybe a bit aggressive along the shore perhaps but overall yeah advisory type seems like a fair call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I think the 4" for all of CT/RI is highballing it. Calling more along 3". I think it's going to warm too fast before 4" is reached. Also there isn't much model data that hits hard with over 0.50" total LE. Sure, could see a spot 5 or 6" report in the hills, but I think it's generally a 2-4 event for most. (a bit less on the coast) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I wonder how the nrn edge of that shield will develop. It's probably going to try and pivot more north. There is a fine line between heavier echoes and practically virga...it's usually tough to get a lot of development north of that, unless the shield pivots more nrnly....but I think that's what will probably happen. You can sort of see that already. I agree. Column moistens up pretty well despite the slightly drier air below. Might be enough to develop that shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 BOS with a due north wind at 6kt and a 22F dewpoint...Scooter is ready to go balls to the wall with 2" for BOS. That would be a KU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 i stepped away for several hours and came back just now...funny how a fresh set of eyes can sort of change your thought process even when most everything looks the same. maybe it's just stepping away from reading kevin's posts calling for 7 to 8" i still think the BOX map is pretty much on target...maybe a bit aggressive along the shore perhaps but overall yeah advisory type seems like a fair call. Kevin is good at spinning every storm into something much bigger...even to where we lose perspective of the majority of expectations, lol. I think anyone who complains about not getting above advisory snow in this would be a huge weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Just got FOUS. Has BOS with 0.44 qpf with acceptable bl of 0C on up the column. I'm growing confident this is not going to screw us as much as others have this year. sig worthy right there. lol Updated BOX map (9:52) seems a bit of a downgrade Not so sure of that--seems like the total coverage of 4-6 has expanded in the west and perhaps shifted a little with the heavier ORH county area. But, I'm just eyebaling and smiling that the 4-6 is sitting on the Pit. We'll see how it plays. 21z SREFs still have quite a bit of spread. Here's BDL QPF. The mean is really being influenced by those two (especially the one) clunker. There's a signifiant number that are clustered above the mean. I like to summarily toss out the +/- extreme runs and focusing on the others. There you see a much tighter clustering. As they are, showing .43 at AQW and .48 at ORE are good to see I'm sure Will's happy to see the .56 at ORH. Nice to see the radar's looking okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 It also looks like some of the "QPF" is lost as drizzle or snizzle, whatever you want to call it, from late morning into early afternoon, so generally LE amounts to fall as accumulating snow are modeled below 0.5" for interior SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 BOS with a due north wind at 6kt and a 22F dewpoint...Scooter is ready to go balls to the wall with 2" for BOS. It was a really cold walk from the garden to my car in southie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 That would be a KU. My temp not moving really at all now, that's good for you and Jerry Scott. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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