Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 That next wave...wow. Looks like a good thump to me front end on this first one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Pete gets 9" out of this. It just happens On the NAM it looks like you have an initial surge and then you have what looks like a deformation that sets up from like NH wsw to ENY. That's key to my getting several inches. I suppose it's possible that Pete might be a little south of that best area, but you wouldn't bet against him. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 That looks pretty moist to me. Normally when you see a model start pegging a mid level dry slot it's a dramatic drop in RH. Yeah but this is what was kind of showing up in CNE in 12/27 which hurt them. Its something to think about. It doesnt mean the NAM is right, either. Compare to this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Verbatim... the NAM would jackpot New Haven here in CT lol. to me it looked like 5-7" in Litchfield County with 3-5 around a lot of the state and then like 1-2" down in SE CT. I think before I thought I clicked the 12h and the 850 line was already over my head but it was definitely more like 18hr lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Yeah but this is what was kind of showing up in CNE in 12/27 which hurt them. Its something to think about. It doesnt mean the NAM is right, either. Compare to this one Yeah could be something... I'm a lot more concerned about convection firing up to the south and sort of messing up the precip fields like the NAM shows. A lot of the SREF members are all over the place with where they're placing the heaviest QPF... bullseyes all over the place to our south and west. While we're all in the right entrance region of that nice jet to our north small modulations in the forcing that's driven by convection/PV generation is probably going to play a big role in totals. For example the 4km RPM has the jackpot from BDR to N NJ almost with the best forcing remaining offshore and more paltry QPF totals to the north. At least the radar looks good now... but as I said before surprises are likely good and bad from this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 to me it looked like 5-7" in Litchfield County with 3-5 around a lot of the state and then like 1-2" down in SE CT. I think before I thought I clicked the 12h and the 850 line was already over my head but it was definitely more like 18hr lol I didn't see that from the NAM at all. It looked like total QPF for your area struggled past 1/3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Yeah could be something... I'm a lot more concerned about convection firing up to the south and sort of messing up the precip fields like the NAM shows. A lot of the SREF members are all over the place with where they're placing the heaviest QPF... bullseyes all over the place to our south and west. While we're all in the right entrance region of that nice jet to our north small modulations in the forcing that's driven by convection/PV generation is probably going to play a big role in totals. For example the 4km RPM has the jackpot from BDR to N NJ almost with the best forcing remaining offshore and more paltry QPF totals to the north. At least the radar looks good now... but as I said before surprises are likely good and bad from this one. Yeah if the lift gets fractures into pockets, then it could end up under producing for some areas while small pockets due well. Radar does look quite healthy which is good...so hopefully the jetstreak does its magic and keeps the lift pretty organized and any instbaility goes into producing organized bands rather than fractured bullseyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I didn't see that from the NAM at all. It looked like total QPF for your area struggled past 1/3". at least the stupid clown maps agreed with me even if you dont Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 at least the stupid clown maps agreed with me even if you dont Those things are a meteorological cancer. I honestly never look at them and think they should be banished off the internet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Just got FOUS. Has BOS with 0.44 qpf with acceptable bl of 0C on up the column. I'm growing confident this is not going to screw us as much as others have this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Those things are a meteorological cancer. I honestly never look at them and think they should be banished off the internet. Almost sig'able Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Those things are a meteorological cancer. I honestly never look at them and think they should be banished off the internet. Meh, no one takes em seriously and there have been so few postings of them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Also, winds are never right of 020. Trends are friends now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Meh, no one takes em seriously and there have been so few postings of them Yeah they seem to get too much play on Twitter and other weather web sites. Even some mets post them. Raw QPF charts are bad enough... but then filtering those through some mystery ptype algorithm always results in disaster. I'm all for doing a quick and dirty approach to get a rough guesstimate but I don't even bother looking at those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 at least the stupid clown maps agreed with me even if you dont There's a reaosn I called them clown maps years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 There should be at least one or two really decent bands during the 9z-15z timeframe tomorrow morning with some pretty nice snowfall rates (maybe 2-3'' per hour type stuff). Thinking that may be from interior SW CT up into portions of northern CT and then extending into ORH county, NW RI. Already seeing some decent sfc frotogenesis developing off the Delmarva along with some 700-500mb frotogenesis across southern NE and 850-700mb frontogenesis associated with the sfc low. As some slight strengthening continues and with enhancement from jet streaks we should see further development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Yeah if the lift gets fractures into pockets, then it could end up under producing for some areas while small pockets due well. Radar does look quite healthy which is good...so hopefully the jetstreak does its magic and keeps the lift pretty organized and any instbaility goes into producing organized bands rather than fractured bullseyes. That's what happened in the 12/27 event when me, MPM etc were getting smoked and SW NH / Monads were getting prolonged periods of -sn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 The recent trends of the GFS and NAM are interesting. My amounts were from the 12z runs, but I would probably tweak them after seeing these runs. I don't know if it means anything or if models are right...but I never like funky dry layers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Radar does look pretty healthy.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 The recent trends of the GFS and NAM are interesting. My amounts were from the 12z runs, but I would probably tweak them after seeing these runs. I don't know if it means anything or if models are right...but I never like funky dry layers. When I was looking at bufkit profiles from the 12z runs today I did notice that all the best RH values >80-90%, seemed to be just below the area of best snowgrowth but the dry values really didn't seem completely alarming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Lots of PL reports in central PA. 00z NAM initialized as cold enough for all snow at KUNV by a big margin. I agree Will on the radar. Looks great. There are a lot of things showing up on the models that have me uneasy though. Sort of a weird storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 When I was looking at bufkit profiles from the 12z runs today I did notice that all the best RH values >80-90%, seemed to be just below the area of best snowgrowth but the dry values really didn't seem completely alarming. No it isn't alarming, but it's something to watch for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 I'm feeling a sleet fest here with occasional chutes in heavier echoes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 BOX extended WWA to almost all of SNE except for southern RI and the cape. Interesting too...a lot of them have 2-3" in the statement...maybe issued because of timing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Updated BOX map (9:52) seems a bit of a downgrade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 No it isn't alarming, but it's something to watch for. I would think this would just complicate some of the forecasts with areas receiving the higher end of forecasted totals. There is a period with some really good lift so I think many will end up seeing a nice thump towards the front end of the storm. Despite the little pockets of drier air, models do show some pretty decent omega values and they reside pretty darn close to the best snowgrowth zone and right in the juicy RH values. Someone is probably bound to get screwed but that always tends to happen lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Hi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 2-4" would be a gift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Updated BOX map (9:52) seems a bit of a downgrade Not for Boston area...looks like they beefed up that area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 the one alarm that keeps going off for me is i feel like these waves have an uncanny ability to fall short of expectation when the airmass isn't rock solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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