Mr Torchey Posted January 15, 2013 Author Share Posted January 15, 2013 Looks like snow breaks out in LL land over the next hour or 2 You think so, looks like 1-2 am to me, its all virga, have to go down into va before anything is hitting the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I meant specifically that the omega is below the DGZ. Doesn't it have to line up ideally? Not always. Sometimes the updraft an penetrate into that layer and saturate...tapping that instability too. But a MAUL does not have to mean TSSN...many times it's enhanced rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I'm happy BOX found it fitting to put a 4-6" pixel over the Pit on their snowfall map. Qpf or bust! Well, maybe ratios.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I meant specifically that the omega is below the DGZ. Doesn't it have to line up ideally? Actually in this case (if it were to verify verbatim.... highly unlikely) the burst of omega under the MAUL wouldn't be a bad thing at all. The omega would get parcels up to the LFC around 550mb and then you'd get some updward motion due to the instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Not always. Sometimes the updraft an penetrate into that layer and saturate...tapping that instability too. But a MAUL does not have to mean TSSN...many times it's enhanced rates. Thanks. I think it'll be a cool nowcast. Radar/WV looks good to my amateur eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Looks like snow breaks out in LL land over the next hour or 2 i don't think it will start that early. not any push N of precip till you get to Eastern west virginia . i don't think LL gets going to midnite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Yeah natl radar composite is pretty impressive right now This may have a few funny surprises in store in that a lot of this is being driven by convection firing up along the baroclinic zone to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Think of a MAUl as a mini cool pocket. What happens is the parcel of air rising up and to the left (meaning north or NW) is now impinging in this layer and says " hey I'm warmer than you....I'm gonna keep rising..." This can Lead to enhanced rates and sometimes thunder if the updraft is strong enough and you get charge separation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 This may have a few funny surprises in store in that a lot of this is being driven by convection firing up along the baroclinic zone to the south.hopefully not in a bad way, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 hopefully not in a bad way, lol. Exactly. Could go either way lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 He's doing better. Hopefully through the night in a month or so. 3 month old here. He has the plague that everyone else has. Any chance of sleeping though the night is out the window. Any change for Quincy area? still a toaster bath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 3 month old here. He has the plague that everyone else has. Any chance of sleeping though the night is out the window. Any change for Quincy area? still a toaUster bath. GFS was better. I want to see what 00z does...but an inch or two got more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 hopefully not in a bad way, lol. We have seen that before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 This may have a few funny surprises in store in that a lot of this is being driven by convection firing up along the baroclinic zone to the south. ryan are you thinking could be qpf surprises/bust or mid level temp surprises wrt to alot of this being driven by convection firing along baroclinic zone to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 GFS was better. I want to see what 00z does...but an inch or two got more likely. 27/20. Temp and dp has really dropped off a bit the past hour. I wonder if that's any indication that this thing tickles S just a bit and you guys do ok? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I think this will be a region-wide (save south coast/islands) 2-5". Dave and Will and perhaps NE of there into ME might lollie an inchor two higher. Not a whole lot different in impact than when I first looked at things this morning. Maybe more people having 3" as a start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 37 degree at rte 24 and 495 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 We have seen that before Indeed we have. Fortunately, since this had low expectations to start with, the surprise elements have a whole lot more upside potential than down. 27/20. Temp and dp has really dropped off a bit the past hour. I wonder if that's any indication that this thing tickles S just a bit and you guys do ok? Nice--you're cooling off well. Hanging tight at 29.1/21 from my 35.1 high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Indeed we have. Fortunately, since this had low expectations to start with, the surprise elements have a whole lot more upside potential than down. Nice--you're cooling off well. Hanging tight at 29.1/21 from my 35.1 high. Yes, I will take my chances this time, The bar is lower this time around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Indeed we have. Fortunately, since this had low expectations to start with, the surprise elements have a whole lot more upside potential than down. Nice--you're cooling off well. Hanging tight at 29.1/21 from my 35.1 high. 28.1F/25 here after the 35.8F high... overcast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 You think so, looks like 1-2 am to me, its all virga, have to go down into va before anything is hitting the ground. I hadn't checked ground obs..Was just looking at radar on phone. Tickle it up Giuseppe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 For those of us in BOX-land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 I hadn't checked ground obs..Was just looking at radar on phone. Tickle it up Giuseppe Might have to hit the sack at 9, looks like I can get a solid 6 hrs and not miss much of anything, this will be a dream storm for you, might start right around wake up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 1% of 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Might have to hit the sack at 9, looks like I can get a solid 6 hrs and not miss much of anything, this will be a dream storm for you, might start right around wake up. Nah it'll be ripping here 2-3:00am..Prob winds down mid morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 For those of us in BOX-land Extrapolates to a nearly 70% chance for litchfield co nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 37 at 195 and 495 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Might have to hit the sack at 9, looks like I can get a solid 6 hrs and not miss much of anything, this will be a dream storm for you, might start right around wake up. LOL, I'm not losing sleep over this one...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 LOL, I'm not losing sleep over this one...... I hate missing the first flakes, never know when they might be your last. Especially at night in the spotlight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 37 at 195 and 495 Driving up and down the Cape scouting temp and dewpoint obs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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