CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I'll wait until 00z to get truly into it, but a nice 18z trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I'll wait until 00z to get truly into it, but a nice 18z trend. Agree.,.. looks better for you. The QPF/forcing seems a little more meh here than some of the earlier runs so I think 5+ is going to be tough... but still a nice few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 lol, hey budman where are u in relation to reading center stayed all snow in 12/29 with boundary about a mile or two ENE/E/ESE, hopefully can do the same this time Let's keep it east of Logan please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Agree.,.. looks better for you. The QPF/forcing seems a little more meh here than some of the earlier runs so I think 5+ is going to be tough... but still a nice few inches. Yeah 12z was nice. We'll see...maybe a nice weenie band moves through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Feeling better about getting maybe a few inches from this, looking forward to the drive to classes tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I'll wait until 00z to get truly into it, but a nice 18z trend. Put the beer goggles on and go for it. Winter wonderland incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Interesting sounding for HFD at 11z. Omega just under the DGZ but that's a MAUL right there so... hmmm...Yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 He's doing better. Hopefully through the night in a month or so.My oldest started sleeping through the night when he was about 2......made us crazy and I was only 31 then so pretty volatiile.Bryce will do fine. Winter pattern en route, he'll get the indoctrination shortly. Down one for me my friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Yikes what does that mean? The MAUL means moist adiabatic unstable layer or something doesn't it? I know it has something to do with thunder snow but what does the omega being under the den. growth zone mean? Don't we want it in that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I think we'll see widespread 5-6 amounts from C ct to Nh border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 just in case someone missed before for those who will be near any taint issues heres an easy link to dual pol stuff http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge2/ridgenew2/?rid=ENX&pid=N0R&lat=43.29108512644793&lon=-73.74067070078126&zoom=7&frames=1&fs=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 what does that mean? The MAUL means moist adiabatic unstable layer or something doesn't it? I know it has something to do with thunder snow but what does the omega being under the den. growth zone mean? Don't we want it in that? yup, it points to instability in the atmosphere, with the potential fort thunder, enhanced precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I think we'll see widespread 5-6 amounts from C ct to Nh border This is shocking information Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 what does that mean? The MAUL means moist adiabatic unstable layer or something doesn't it? I know it has something to do with thunder snow but what does the omega being under the den. growth zone mean? Don't we want it in that?moist absolutely unstable layer...basically the saturated environmental lapse rate is greater than the moist adiabatic lapse rate...i.e. instability. A little added lift to that omega could tap BDL into that max dendritic growth zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Will we have an over-performer usher in a more wintry period the next few weeks? Nice little event, been following from a distance... Along eastern MA, seems like a good case study for forecasting boundary layer soundings and locating a coastal front. Any tips from the pros on: 1) forecasting boundary layer at various times: I usually get soundings off twisterdata and vortex.plymouth... models seem to have run too cold this winter, eg. 12/29/12 2) forecasting location of coastal front: I usually look for wind changes at the lowest levels, but meso-scale features obviously will be critical in this too 3) typical model biases on the above 2 TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Chris, although this is not a dynamic system, many times you'll have an unstable layer on the nrn side of a thermal gradient like 850-700. Just how nature works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Will we have an over-performer usher in a more wintry period the next few weeks? Nice little event, been following from a distance... Along eastern MA, seems like a good case study for forecasting boundary layer soundings and locating a coastal front. Any tips from the pros on: 1) forecasting boundary layer at various times: I usually get soundings off twisterdata and vortex.plymouth... models seem to have run too cold this winter, eg. 12/29/12 2) forecasting location of coastal front: I usually look for wind changes at the lowest levels, but meso-scale features obviously will be critical in this too 3) typical model biases on the above 2 TIA location and orientation of high pressure or lack there of would be one thing to look i recall boxing day 2010 had the Low pressure over part of capecod but n drainage flow was lock'd in and scooter stayed all snow. i believe the low-pressure field being oriented (sw-ne) in the gulf of maine to the north east of the low was a key to locking that in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 My oldest started sleeping through the night when he was about 2......made us crazy and I was only 31 then so pretty volatiile. Bryce will do fine. Winter pattern en route, he'll get the indoctrination shortly. Down one for me my friend. Thanks Jerry. You actually look like a good spot right now lol. Let's hope any taint is at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 BTW, for the mets....if any of you have the chance, read or watch some material from James Moore. RIP to him, but probably the best person that ever broke down CSI and mesoscale banding to an operational approach. Can't say enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 location and orientation of high pressure or lack there of would be one thing to look i recall boxing day 2010 had the Low pressure over part of capecod but n drainage flow was lock'd in and scooter stayed all snow. i believe the low-pressure field being oriented (sw-ne) in the gulf of maine to the north east of the low was a key to locking that in. I got absolutely crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 This is shocking information Nothing points to anything different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 looks like some nice Gulf moisture is/is about to be being tapped soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 what does that mean? The MAUL means moist adiabatic unstable layer or something doesn't it? I know it has something to do with thunder snow but what does the omega being under the den. growth zone mean? Don't we want it in that? it means possible TSSN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Pickles, we had a decent high and a bombing low. That helped lock in nrly winds. Pretty sure Jay and I were the jackpot actually. For us, the classic CF to the east is a good high north of Maine and a cold antecedent airmass. It doesn't have to work that way...but that is textbook. Also, there is a vector pointiing from cold air to warm air...like a seabreeze in the summer. That helps push a CF past the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Looks like snow breaks out in LL land over the next hour or 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 New RPM colder/snowier...few inches right into BOS. 6+ ORH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 AMOUT..tickle colder as we inch closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 it means possible TSSN I meant specifically that the omega is below the DGZ. Doesn't it have to line up ideally? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Looks like snow breaks out in LL land over the next hour or 2 Nope. Most of that on radar is drying up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 looks like some nice Gulf moisture is/is about to be being tapped soon. Yeah natl radar composite is pretty impressive right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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