HoarfrostHubb Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 50 miles NW of BOS seems like a good place to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Specific time frames but the NAM is warmer through 17/18 hours. Nice little snow burst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 50 miles NW of BOS seems like a good place to me you should go to the top of WaWa! snow skiing tomorrow? looks like they are in the jackpot area! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 They over adjusted them Working and lurking foday nut had fo say tjat you my friend are in rare form today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Does this have a better chance of tickling another notch warmer or colder the final 12 hours or does it not matter at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I don't know, when I look at the 18z NAM I see a good snow burst for almost all of us, even me, and maybe Phil. 1000-850 plenty cool, 8h plenty cool, warm at the surface for sure, but not terribly so that cannot be overcome by strong precip rates. (this is through 20 hours) Then it warms, but the front end should produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 09z 15z Interesting signal to the north of the weenie band. Despite being farther from the forcing, there is a high probability of a large DGZ. This leads to enhanced snow ratios. Fluff factor could keep the sharp NW cutoff from being a reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I don't know, when I look at the 18z NAM I see a good snow burst for almost all of us, even me, and maybe Phil. 1000-850 plenty cool, 8h plenty cool, warm at the surface for sure, but not terribly so that cannot be overcome by strong precip rates. (this is through 20 hours) Then it warms, but the front end should produce. it's cold enough for a burst of snow at the beginning. i think we could get a slushy coating or something - maybe a bit more if we are lucky - but after that it's down the drain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Working and lurking foday nut had fo say tjat you my friend are in rare form today ??? and drinking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Working and lurking foday nut had fo say tjat you my friend are in rare form today what in the world... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Yeah I think we'll probably hang on to some weenie precip with low level forcing/frontogenesis behind the main slug but not as strong as the GFS has. The SREFs/NAM/Euro are really a front thump then mainly done. I do think -PL/-RA is likely for many of us in CT after the snow in the morning. Just take your measurement before the change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 it's cold enough for a burst of snow at the beginning. i think we could get a slushy coating or something - maybe a bit more if we are lucky - but after that it's down the drain. I'm pretty pumped about the ski country deal. Still have small hope for the weekend, more hope for the 22-23. It is what is Phil, hopefully we can get 1-3" tonight. I think it's a 50/50 shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 To back up what OceanStWX means, here is the text data for near FIT at 12z. Notice the column THTE. See near 550 mb how it drops to 313K? This means there is a somewhat unstable layer there. Indeed even soundings concur. These unstable layers sometimes occur in areas of strong thermal gradients. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?sounding.lat=42.7147&sounding.lon=-71.9824&sndclick=y&prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2013&model_mm=01&model_dd=15&model_init_hh=12&fhour=24¶meter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=y&output=text&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 09z 15z Interesting signal to the north of the weenie band. Despite being farther from the forcing, there is a high probability of a large DGZ. This leads to enhanced snow ratios. Fluff factor could keep the sharp NW cutoff from being a reality. That must be where the -8 is. FYI--here are the outputs for ORH/BDL/AQW. Worcester and BDL are essentially even with about .55 average (?) and even AQW is now over .4. Quite the range between the extremes. Maybe I should go 3-6 instead of 2-5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 To back up what OceanStWX means, here is the text data for near FIT at 12z. Notice the column THTE. See near 550 mb how it drops to 313K? This means there is a somewhat unstable layer there. Indeed even soundings concur. These unstable layers sometimes occur in areas of strong thermal gradients. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?sounding.lat=42.7147&sounding.lon=-71.9824&sndclick=y&prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2013&model_mm=01&model_dd=15&model_init_hh=12&fhour=24¶meter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=y&output=text&view=large&archive=false But, this is also where there is a dry layer too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Hooray. Another ****ing coating here if we're lucky. Exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Hooray. Another ****ing coating here if we're lucky. Exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 For Ray, this storm may cheer him up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 That must be where the -8 is. FYI--here are the outputs for ORH/BDL/AQW. Worcester and BDL are essentially even with about .55 average (?) and even AQW is now over .4. Quite the range between the extremes. Maybe I should go 3-6 instead of 2-5. 15z is not out yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 For Ray, this storm may cheer him up. I'm going to be busy tmw, but I suppose I can squeeze in a measurement or two... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I'm going to be busy tmw, but I suppose I can squeeze in a measurement or two... Actually, during the morning I will not be at all....PM I will be swamped...meeting, and probably a ton of work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 ??? and drinking? Big thumbs small keyboard. Just saying jeff cold front is in rare form today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 That must be where the -8 is. FYI--here are the outputs for ORH/BDL/AQW. Worcester and BDL are essentially even with about .55 average (?) and even AQW is now over .4. Quite the range between the extremes. Maybe I should go 3-6 instead of 2-5. Pretty damn close to where -8 C is actually. But these kind of DGZ depths have been associated with the really high ratio snows (think 20:1 or greater). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I'm going to be busy tmw, but I suppose I can squeeze in a measurement or two...Will you measure wearing the snow panties? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 A lot of the soundings definitely have some instability between about 500-600mb around here. We'll see if that can turn into anything fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 But, this is also where there is a dry layer too. The GFS had that sneaky dry layer in the 12/27 storm too, and look how that turned out for NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 The GFS had that sneaky dry layer in the 12/27 storm too, and look how that turned out for NH. Friends in Epping got smoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Big thumbs small keyboard. Just saying jeff cold front is in rare form today lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Friends in Epping got smoked. The coastal front really saved those near it, but inland we got destroyed by poor snow growth or something. I was way too high on my forecast, but couldn't really do much verification what with the sand, sun, and umbrella drinks in my way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Nice wording in Albany's WWA for my neighboring zones--unforutnatley the p/c's fo rthem are only showing 1-3 ftl. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY. * LOCATIONS...SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT...BERKSHIRES AND ALL OF SOUTHERN VERMONT. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND HAZARDOUS TRAVELING CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE ON WEDNESDAY. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 6 INCHES. * MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATES...COULD APPROACH UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE ON WEDNESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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