CT Rain Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Ryan what does MAUL stand for again? Moist Absolutely Unstable Layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Ryan what does MAUL stand for again? Moist Absolutely Unstable Layer. Its what you like to see if you were forecasting a shot at thundersnow for someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I hope we do end as some ice to lock in the pack again. With the bitter cold and wind coming anything powdery will get blown to high hell How'd that ice help you last week? Good find. Verbatim the 2m temps are pretty lousy in the valley, but moderate snow on top of a couple inches already down would probably keep accumulating. Congrats someone near Dave and Will! I think it's safe to say that outside of some narrow stripe that picks up a bit more, the 2-5" stated in the BOX advisory was a very good call, their map looks very reasonable, and there's no compelling reason to shift anything based on the 12z runs. This 4" prob map looks reasonable as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Moist Absolutely Unstable Layer. So does that NAM profile suggest possible thundersnow? Just saw ORH's response, but at least it's interesting to see that we could get some weenie action possible tomorrow morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 How was the euro for he4e? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 what i'm interested to watch from a simple learning perspective (as MBY is not in the game on this other than some front end slop) is how the models handle the mid-level warming. i think BL stuff will be an issue for folks within 5-10 miles of any SNE shore line from BOS southward so personally think those areas are relatively toasted outside of a C-2" kind of thing. and then N of the Pike is probably fine...mostly, if not all, snow and a good 4-7" type of thing. those regions i'm pretty confident with. wildcard to me is a good chunk of CT, interior RI and parts of interior MA - for these areas i'm interested to see how quickly the profile is able to warm / how long it holds. sometimes that mid-level warm punch comes in faster than expected at like 800 mb - but there isn't a huge punch in this particular evolution so that kind of thinking could fail you. conversely, the cold is relatively lacking so there won't be as much resistance as we might normally expect. Yeah hit the nail on the head. That's sort of why I thought maybe a lean to the GFS...but easier for me to say when I'm not forecasting. The GFS does the two part thing which maybe helps the warmer air move north in between the good lift. Part 1 is a burst from 700-500 omega. Part two is like 850-700 omega. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 what i'm interested to watch from a simple learning perspective (as MBY is not in the game on this other than some front end slop) is how the models handle the mid-level warming. i think BL stuff will be an issue for folks within 5-10 miles of any SNE shore line from BOS southward so personally think those areas are relatively toasted outside of a C-2" kind of thing. and then N of the Pike is probably fine...mostly, if not all, snow and a good 4-7" type of thing. those regions i'm pretty confident with. wildcard to me is a good chunk of CT, interior RI and parts of interior MA - for these areas i'm interested to see how quickly the profile is able to warm / how long it holds. sometimes that mid-level warm punch comes in faster than expected at like 800 mb - but there isn't a huge punch in this particular evolution so that kind of thinking could fail you. conversely, the cold is relatively lacking so there won't be as much resistance as we might normally expect. Well we have a weak wave but tight baroclinic zone and anticyclonicly curved jet. We know that the entrance region of the jet will favor divergence and thus lift. I am thinking more along the lines of tightening the baroclinic zone rather than blowing it northward as we would expect with a stronger wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Well we have a weak wave but tight baroclinic zone and anticyclonicly curved jet. We know that the entrance region of the jet will favor divergence and thus lift. I am thinking more along the lines of tightening the baroclinic zone rather than blowing it northward as we would expect with a stronger wave.Tightening is better than blowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Yeah hit the nail on the head. That's sort of why I thought maybe a lean to the GFS...but easier for me to say when I'm not forecasting. The GFS does the two part thing which maybe helps the warmer air move north in between the good lift. Part 1 is a burst from 700-500 omega. Part two is like 850-700 omega. Yes... was actually just toying with this idea. Even on the NAM and SREFs which are more of a thump you can see a sort of 2 part omega idea. The first is more mid level and the second is lower level stuff associated with some 800mb-ish frontogenesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Well we have a weak wave but tight baroclinic zone and anticyclonicly curved jet. We know that the entrance region of the jet will favor divergence and thus lift. I am thinking more along the lines of tightening the baroclinic zone rather than blowing it northward as we would expect with a stronger wave. what height and time are you looking at? i'm sitting flipping through images - might as well just ask you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 what height and time are you looking at? i'm sitting flipping through images - might as well just ask you. Just taking a big picture look at H3 winds and H8 temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Just taking a big picture look at H3 winds and H8 temps. hmmm...well it'll be interesting to watch evolve. i know my destiny down here for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 15z SREF just dumped into AWIPS and they look further N again and wetter. 4" probs almost doubled to over 50%. Some of that is probably narrowing in on the event and confidence among members growing, but still a nice signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Grandiose names for a pretty minor event--but after this weekend, it's a bonanza. BOX calls from their new ZFP's: Goose Egg Tropics: (less than 1"): Eastern Norfolk Western Kent Eastern Kent Bristol Washington Newport Block Eastern Plymouth Southern Bristol Southern Plymouth Barnstable Dukes Nantucket Green Trail 1-3" Suffolk Eastern Essex Windham NW Providence SE Providence (1) Northern Bristol Western Plymouth (1) Blue Trail 2-4" Western Nofolk: Southeast Middlesex Western Essex Central Middlesex Northern middlesex Eastern Hillsborough West/Cent Hillsboroug Cheshire Eastern Franklin Eastern Hampshire Hartford Tolland Black Diamond 3-5" Southern Worcester Northern Worcester Western Franklin Western Hampshire Western Hampden Eastern Hampden Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 15z SREF just dumped into AWIPS and they look further N again and wetter. 4" probs almost doubled to over 50%. Some of that is probably narrowing in on the event and confidence among members growing, but still a nice signal.ARW members winning out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Just taking a big picture look at H3 winds and H8 temps. I love the LLJ that just starts ripping out of nowhere basically. I'm sure it's related to a bunch of low/mid level PV generation through convection/latent heat release that strengthens the LLJ circulation. Loop the 850mb winds and take a look. Wish I could generate some cross sections. This will be important to figure out where the best jet forcing is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 ARW members winning out? Those should be tossed..... j/k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 15z SREF just dumped into AWIPS and they look further N again and wetter. 4" probs almost doubled to over 50%. Some of that is probably narrowing in on the event and confidence among members growing, but still a nice signal. Another bump, But It can't happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 15z SREF just dumped into AWIPS and they look further N again and wetter. 4" probs almost doubled to over 50%. Some of that is probably narrowing in on the event and confidence among members growing, but still a nice signal. Holding tight on temps though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 ARW members winning out? They over adjusted them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I love the LLJ that just starts ripping out of nowhere basically. I'm sure it's related to a bunch of low/mid level PV generation through convection/latent heat release that strengthens the LLJ circulation. Loop the 850mb winds and take a look. Wish I could generate some cross sections. This will be important to figure out where the best jet forcing is. That might help the weenie band near the MA/NH border after 18z. Strong WSW winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevin1927 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Hooray. Another ****ing coating here if we're lucky. Exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Holding tight on temps though? Temps came north a bit...but the spread is enormous over SNE by 18z tomorrow...which obviously tells us that there is low confidence on mid-level temps. The QPF is a bit more certain I think. Not that it really matters much for north of the pike...its going to snow decently regardless I think, but could mean the difference between like 2-3" and 4-5" for a place like HFD ot Tolland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Hooray. Another ****ing coating here if we're lucky. Exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Temps came north a bit...but the spread is enormous over SNE by 18z tomorrow...which obviously tells us that there is low confidence on mid-level temps. The QPF is a bit more certain I think. Not that it really matters much for north of the pike...its going to snow decently regardless I think, but could mean the difference between like 2-3" and 4-5" for a place like HFD ot Tolland. By 18z I assume most of the action is done here though... so it's tough in something like this to look at a frame in time at 18z and figure it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Timing rather than amounts might make for school delays/cancellations for a number of towns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Hooray. Another ****ing coating here if we're lucky. Exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 By 18z I assume most of the action is done here though... so it's tough in something like this to look at a frame in time at 18z and figure it out. Well at 15z it has the 0C line over HFD/TOL...so it could cut into accums there a bit, but even by 15z it has a bit under half inch of qpf. I personally think given the spread we see during those time frames, that's its probably a few big amped weenie members pulling the mean north a bit. After seeing the Euro barely go any warmer at 12z and a lot of other guidance plenty cold for good snow in CT, I'm doubting a less snowy scenario down there right now. And I agree that a good chunk is going to fall before any warm up in the MLs even if it does come pretty far north eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I love the LLJ that just starts ripping out of nowhere basically. I'm sure it's related to a bunch of low/mid level PV generation through convection/latent heat release that strengthens the LLJ circulation. Loop the 850mb winds and take a look. Wish I could generate some cross sections. This will be important to figure out where the best jet forcing is. Nice forcing signal about 50 miles NW of BOS (off the 12z GFS). Nice area of weak stability aloft, just above the best forcing. There will be banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Well at 15z it has the 0C line over HFD/TOL...so it could cut into accums there a bit, but even by 15z it has a bit under half inch of qpf. I personally think given the spread we see during those time frames, that's its probably a few big amped weenie members pulling the mean north a bit. After seeing the Euro barely go any warmer at 12z and a lot of other guidance plenty cold for good snow in CT, I'm doubting a less snowy scenario down there right now. And I agree that a good chunk is going to fall before any warm up in the MLs even if it does come pretty far north eventually. Yeah I think we'll probably hang on to some weenie precip with low level forcing/frontogenesis behind the main slug but not as strong as the GFS has. The SREFs/NAM/Euro are really a front thump then mainly done. I do think -PL/-RA is likely for many of us in CT after the snow in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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