Snow Event 1/15-1/16

[SR Airglow]

Have a sneaking suspision that this becomes one of those events where the SW CT microclimate really takes hold where below the merrit sees nothing and above merrit sees a decent, not quite advisory level but close snow. sort of have a feeling we see maybe coating to 1" south of the merritt and 1-3" in the northern suburbs of Stamford, New Cannan and Darien due to the higher elevation being enough to keep temps down.

[OceanStWx]

That is my go to model sometimes. I like it for convection...but it does well with syntopic storms.

 

Talk about a weenie band, doesn't move.

[CoastalWx]

Talk about a weenie band, doesn't move.

 

I mean given the thermal ribbon sort of stationary...I could buy it, no?

[HoarfrostHubb]

I buy that for you and esp maybe rt 2 area. Just an educated guess. I think 5-6 is within reach unless something drastic happens. 

I will babysit Bryce for a few hours if you want to bring him over and watch the snow...

[CoastalWx]

I will babysit Bryce for a few hours if you want to bring him over and watch the snow...

 

I'm close to driving to the snow.

[dryslot]

I'm close to driving to the snow.

 

 

Center harbor

[CoastalWx]

Center harbor

 

Going next week.

[OceanStWx]

I mean given the thermal ribbon sort of stationary...I could buy it, no?

 

Absolutely. There isn't much of an impetus to move that enhancement around. Probably a situation where the jackpots are close to warning criteria in that stripe with everyone else 2-4".

[CT Rain]

GFS is sort of funny looking. Looks like 2 bursts of snow... one that waits until 16z or so. 

 

I think the Euro is more realistic looking.

[CoastalWx]

Absolutely. There isn't much of an impetus to move that enhancement around. Probably a situation where the jackpots are close to warning criteria in that stripe with everyone else 2-4".

 

Just a matter of placement. The GFS would be probably up in SNH. I like that idea somewhere near ORH and SNH. 

[TalcottWx]

Going next week.

What do you like besides spc wrf when specifically dealing with microclimate here

Links would be awesome, I could save them and bother you less

[OceanStWx]

Just a matter of placement. The GFS would be probably up in SNH. I like that idea somewhere near ORH and SNH. 

 

Well the fun part about the long term, is I can troll the short term guy on the forecast. I'm pushing for the weenie band in southern NH.

[dryslot]

Going next week.

 

 

Good for you, Enjoy your time up there, You will probably luck out if you don't freeze your balls off

[OceanStWx]

The SREF seem a little too far N with the 4" or more probs, but I think a compromise between the SPC WRF and the SREF band would be a good location. Like the northern ORH Hills into southern NH, and just S of PWM.

[dryslot]

Well the fun part about the long term, is I can troll the short term guy on the forecast. I'm pushing for the weenie band in southern NH.

 

Push him to making a call one way or the other..........lol

[CoastalWx]

What do you like besides spc wrf when specifically dealing with microclimate here

Links would be awesome, I could save them and bother you less

 

Well that model isn't really for this area per se...I like it in general. 

 

I don't have a model that is best for this area...I look at all of them, thinking about climo and similar setups, and make a call. Maybe I'm the only one who thinks this way, but usually I like to role with the model that makes sense to me..and perhaps adjust a little to other models to account for the uncertainty. DT used to say that you should always ask yourself why models are wrong. I do not agree....models are one of the modern marvels. Of course they won't always be 100% correct, but this is where the met comes in and adds the human touch. Forecasting is an art, some are like Michelangelo, some only draw stick figures.

 

SPC WRF

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/00/

 

You may have to put "12" instead of "00" for the URL.

[CoastalWx]

Well the fun part about the long term, is I can troll the short term guy on the forecast. I'm pushing for the weenie band in southern NH.

 

I think it hangs near ORH and RT 2 then stalls in SNH.  

[Tropopause_Fold]

Well that model isn't really for this area per se...I like it in general. 

 

I don't have a model that is best for this area...I look at all of them, thinking about climo and similar setups, and make a call. Maybe I'm the only one who thinks this way, but usually I like to role with the model that makes sense to me..and perhaps adjust a little to other models to account for the uncertainty. DT used to say that you should always ask yourself why models are wrong. I do not agree....models are one of the modern marvels. Of course they won't always be 100% correct, but this is where the met comes in and adds the human touch. Forecasting is an art, some are like Michelangelo, some only draw stick figures.

 

SPC WRF

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/00/

 

You may have to put "12" instead of "00" for the URL.

that's a pretty classic line. 

[eduggs]

GFS is sort of funny looking. Looks like 2 bursts of snow... one that waits until 16z or so. 

 

I think the Euro is more realistic looking.

Quick burst for CT looks more reasonable on the Euro.  But do you think it's right to limit precip on the NW quadrant?  Will there be a secondary band on the cold side of the boundary, similar to other guidance?  Sref mean and GEFS suggest a local min near ENY, and a local max near SENH, but it looks like the Euro really exaggerates it with .2 or less in WMA and SVT. 

[OceanStWx]

Push him to making a call one way or the other..........lol

 

 

No punting on this shift, a decision will be made one way or another. We are talking onset well within first period at this point.

[CoastalWx]

that's a pretty classic line. 

 

Sort of true though..lol.

[OceanStWx]

Well that model isn't really for this area per se...I like it in general. 

 

I don't have a model that is best for this area...I look at all of them, thinking about climo and similar setups, and make a call. Maybe I'm the only one who thinks this way, but usually I like to role with the model that makes sense to me..and perhaps adjust a little to other models to account for the uncertainty. DT used to say that you should always ask yourself why models are wrong. I do not agree....models are one of the modern marvels. Of course they won't always be 100% correct, but this is where the met comes in and adds the human touch. Forecasting is an art, some are like Michelangelo, some only draw stick figures.

 

SPC WRF

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/00/

 

You may have to put "12" instead of "00" for the URL.

 

It's really glass half full or half empty. You could ask yourself, how the GFS coule be right for instance in this case. The key is knowing what each model does well and what it does poorly. As an example, you would expect the SPC WRF to handle mesoscale convective features well. Meaning that a narrow weenie band should probably be something to expect. Now you just need to figure out where, as you said.

[CoastalWx]

It's really glass half full or half empty. You could ask yourself, how the GFS coule be right for instance in this case. The key is knowing what each model does well and what it does poorly. As an example, you would expect the SPC WRF to handle mesoscale convective features well. Meaning that a narrow weenie band should probably be something to expect. Now you just need to figure out where, as you said.

 

Yeah exactly, why is the euro doing this, but the GFS showing that...is it a known bias? Has it happened before? Split the difference a bit or favor a 70/30 compromise? Things like that. 

 

Part of me almost wants to lean GFS more than Euro right now. 

[dryslot]

No punting on this shift, a decision will be made one way or another. We are talking onset well within first period at this point.

 

 

Start time around 06-09z here?

[CoastalWx]

Ryan brings up a good point...the GFS is almost two parts. Soundings show a funny dry layer/subsidence from 500mb to 600mb too. It looks weird, but it's done that since yesterday. 

[ORH_wxman]

Even though temps are a bit on the stale side, we have gotten a respectable dewpoint drain out of the polar front seepage. This should help a lot of areas...esp in the first 3-5 hours of the system as the drain is northerly still during that time.

[CT Rain]

The NAM has a MAUL right through the dendritic growth zone at BDL with solid omega. LOL. 

[OceanStWx]

Start time around 06-09z here?

 

NAM/GFS bufkit profiles would suggest a little closer to 09z.

[Max]

The NAM has a MAUL right through the dendritic growth zone at BDL with solid omega. LOL. 

Ryan what does MAUL stand for again?

[Tropopause_Fold]

It's really glass half full or half empty. You could ask yourself, how the GFS coule be right for instance in this case. The key is knowing what each model does well and what it does poorly. As an example, you would expect the SPC WRF to handle mesoscale convective features well. Meaning that a narrow weenie band should probably be something to expect. Now you just need to figure out where, as you said.

what i'm interested to watch from a simple learning perspective (as MBY is not in the game on this other than some front end slop) is how the models handle the mid-level warming. i think BL stuff will be an issue for folks within 5-10 miles of any SNE shore line from BOS southward so personally think those areas are relatively toasted outside of a C-2" kind of thing. and then N of the Pike is probably fine...mostly, if not all, snow and a good 4-7" type of thing. those regions i'm pretty confident with.

 

wildcard to me is a good chunk of CT, interior RI and parts of interior MA - for these areas i'm interested to see how quickly the profile is able to warm / how long it holds. sometimes that mid-level warm punch comes in faster than expected at like 800 mb  -  but there isn't a huge punch in this particular evolution so that kind of thinking could fail you. conversely, the cold is relatively lacking so there won't be as much resistance as we might normally expect.