Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,584
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Snow Event 1/15-1/16

Mr Torchey

By Mr Torchey,
in New England

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.6k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Not at all but when one outlier model had 000000 support I don't know why anyone would use it. Just my opinion

 

 

Other models aren't as warm, but they have trended warmer from 00z when some of them had trended back colder. I think the Euro is actually the only model that doesn't give you any mixing or ptype issues. But not that it matters a ton on the non-GFS models since you get plenty of snow before the mixing occurs.

 

Euro is sometimes stubborn and ends up right, so we'll see. I won't be shocked if it ticks back colder at the last second either...sometimes the models will get the idea of a further north system correct but then overdo the thermal profiles in response.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Quincy

Quincy

Posted
Posted

Just checking out a few different parameters and the SREF over the past three runs appears to have stopped the north trend with respect to warming the BL. Of course a lot of it will boil down to now-casting, but it's nice to see a trend (hopefully) stop.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

GFS boundary layer inland is probably a bit too warm.....that is par for the course. I don't think anyone disagrees with that.

 

 

I didn't even look to see what it was...is it trying to make it 37F here? lol

 

It probably won't get above 30-31F.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Other models aren't as warm, but they have trended warmer from 00z when some of them had trended back colder. I think the Euro is actually the only model that doesn't give you any mixing or ptype issues. But not that it matters a ton on the non-GFS models since you get plenty of snow before the mixing occurs.

 

Euro is sometimes stubborn and ends up right, so we'll see. I won't be shocked if it ticks back colder at the last second either...sometimes the models will get the idea of a further north system correct but then overdo the thermal profiles in response.

 

It's and interesting debate for how this would affect his area of CT.... 

 

I don't see liquid there at all...  If it flips, it's a sleet and icing fest.  Synoptically, this system has very little ability ...actually, no ability to advect warm critical thickness in the sfc - 1300m levels.   Here is HFD's recent obs:  151553 SCT090 10 37 24 0106 265   .... Note the 24F td;  I can't as a Meteorologist see how a N draining hygroscopic air mass has any hope in fresh polar air mass (and mind us there is still a snow pack near-by N!), of ending up on the hot side of 0C.

 

I could almsot see him being 31F/28F with moderaten snow that goes to dry pingers for a tad when a narrow tongue of warm rides over a tallish cold thickness column.  Then he ends...perhaps busting the contamination sequences as having been too pessimistic.   We'll see.   

Link to comment
Share on other sites
ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

It's and interesting debate for how this would affect his area of CT.... 

 

I don't see liquid there at all...  If it flips, it's a sleet and icing fest.  Synoptically, this system has very little ability ...actually, no ability to advect warm critical thickness in the sfc - 1300m levels.   Here is HFD's recent obs:  151553 SCT090 10 37 24 0106 265   .... Note the 24F td;  I can't as a Meteorologist see how a N draining hygroscopic air mass has any hope in fresh polar air mass (and mind us there is still a snow pack near-by N!), of ending up on the hot side of 0C.

 

I could almsot see him being 31F/28F with moderaten snow that goes to dry pingers for a tad when a narrow tongue of warm rides over a tallish cold thickness column.  Then he ends...perhaps busting the contamination sequences as having been too pessimistic.   We'll see.   

 

 

I don't think the mixing is that big of a deal for N CT anyway...people get so hung up on its its 100% snow for the entire event...if its 80% snow and ends as some pingers or freezing drizzle, it really doesn't change the forecast much. The big omega punch on most guidance is out ahead of the criticial mid-level thickness lines.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

Can you explain why you think this?

 

 

Yes, Because all the other guidance is moving in that direction, So we should just **** can everything else an go strictly with the the 0z Euro, Which by the way had shifted NW for up here with the qpf, Not that it will have any effect down your way, Maybe should get scooters thoughts seeing i don't know what i am talking about

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

Yes, Because all the other guidance is moving in that direction, So we should just **** can everything else an go strictly with the the 0z Euro, Which by the way had shifted NW for up here with the qpf, Not that it will have any effect down your way, Maybe should get scooters thoughts seeing i don't know what i am talking about

All other guidance is moving north? Hmm. Ok. It couldn't have anything to do with where you live could it? Srefs shifted south with qpf btw
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...