Typhoon Tip Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Lol Tippy saying unfort this includes NE CT. Thanks for the love. To me this is 3-6 inch regionwide event inland and the jacks get 7-8, and anyone interior is included in that . I don't see why LL up to Scooter can't grab 2-3 or so. To me the key is the dewpoints. Lower dews this time than last will allow the coast to do better J/K ...seriously I suggest Scott and Ray get thumped with 0 rain contamination. Antecendent fresh polar air mass with 10mph winds coming into the coast is going to lock and CF almost on the shore with that much omega going over head. People are going to nit-pick this thing into a non event, possibly out of a defensive posturing, when they should just accept it and let the cards fall where they may. You don't control the weather so why bother doing that? ...that's part of the insanity I'm constantly complaining about around here...but I digress. straight up objective analysis for me is that this is uniform snow NW of an ~ Logan to KTAN axis... Any headaches will be relegated to the deep SE zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 It's 40/30 here. My dews were better for 12/29. Just sayin'. not speaking for Kevin, but i "think" he means 'by the time this kicks off' sure not now, but the draining will continue to push Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 GFS is meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 GFS is warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Lol Tippy saying unfort this includes NE CT. Thanks for the love. To me this is 3-6 inch regionwide event inland and the jacks get 7-8, and anyone interior is included in that . I don't see why LL up to Scooter can't grab 2-3 or so. To me the key is the dewpoints. Lower dews this time than last will allow the coast to do better It'll be interested to see who gets more in this...you or me. Definitely one of those toss up storms on that front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 this is a hubbdave jackpot, imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Thats quite a bump NW with the precip up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 GFS drives the 850 line into southern NH but after most qpf is done here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 J/K ...seriously I suggest Scott and Ray get thumped with 0 rain contamination. Antecendent fresh polar air mass with 10mph winds coming into the coast is going to lock and CF almost on the shore with that much omega going over head. People are going to nit-pick this thing into a non event, possibly out of a defensive posturing, when they should just accept it and let the cards fall where they may. You don't control the weather so why bother doing that? ...that's part of the insanity I'm constantly complaining about around here...but I digress. straight up objective analysis for me is that this is uniform snow NW of an ~ Logan to KTAN axis... Any headaches will be relegated to the deep SE zones. Ray is money, I'm not sold on zero marine taint. No good high and ****ty low means Ageo flow is very weak. This will be another longitudinal coastal front with lack of high pressure. I could see this thing parked with 5 miles either side of my hood, but probably will move west just past here. Forecasting these are very tough so I could be off by 5 miles.....just how I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Ryan FTW @ryanhanrahan: Snow forecast tonight/tomorrow. Peaks during morning commute. http://t.co/AARJ918B Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Jeff jackpot up in LA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 And GFS confirms my thoughts. See you next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 GFS is warm It's nice up in the mountains. Maybe 4-8 for ski country? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 GFS continues to be a warm outlier...doesn't make much difference for my area, but for south of the pike it does. RGEM looked kind of like the NAM just peeking now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 GFS continues to be a warm outlier...doesn't make much difference for my area, but for south of the pike it does. RGEM looked kind of like the NAM just peeking now. As a general rule, if the GFS is a warm outlier, not to sound weenieish, but I'd toss it and favor the higher resolution models. GFS also has a weird freezing rain signature getting locked into northern CT. It's possible, but I'd tend to think the layer up to 850mb might be at least a bit colder than advertised as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Ray is money, I'm not sold on zero marine taint. No good high and ****ty low means Ageo flow is very weak. This will be another longitudinal coastal front with lack of high pressure. I could see this thing parked with 5 miles either side of my hood, but probably will move west just past here. Forecasting these are very tough so I could be off by 5 miles.....just how I see it. F* me... we've had this conversation before - I keep thinking you live in Andover. You WORK in Andover, and stupidly live in Boston's N End snow hole - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 It's nice up in the mountains. Maybe 4-8 for ski country? Your golden up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 As a general rule, if the GFS is a warm outlier, not to sound weenieish, but I'd toss it and favor the higher resolution models. GFS also has a weird freezing rain signature getting locked into northern CT. It's possible, but I'd tend to think the layer up to 850mb might be at least a bit colder than advertised as well. It doesn't have the mesh to handling the lower critical thickness' - No "you" per se, but we have to say this every time. People see that GFS run, and toss hands and/or use it to troll jealousy sectors - haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 15, 2013 Author Share Posted January 15, 2013 so the gfs has the right idea here, and the euro is out to lunch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Jeff jackpot up in LA. If the GFS is right would be a decent hit Jerry, RGEM looks decent as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 GFS is meh. GFS is warm wow @ GFS warm.. 1-3" before rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 F* me... we've had this conversation before - I keep thinking you live in Andover. You WORK in Andover, and stupidly live in Boston's N End snow hole - LOL actually se side of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 As a general rule, if the GFS is a warm outlier, not to sound weenieish, but I'd toss it and favor the higher resolution models. GFS also has a weird freezing rain signature getting locked into northern CT. It's possible, but I'd tend to think the layer up to 850mb might be at least a bit colder than advertised as well. I'd probably mostly just not believe it because it has little to no support from models like the Euro. Compromise usually tends to work the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 GFS looks nice north of CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Finally some mets share our thoughts on the GFS. Hallelujah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 LOL actually se side of the city. Egh, even worse! what the hell is a matter with you ? is that your wife's call?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 LOL actually se side of the city. Lol....even worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Feeling pretty good for this area, especially once you get just off the valley floor. Real close to the river, Noho, Hadley, etc. might be a bit warm in the lowest levels. But the weak isallobaric component should mean we don't take forever to saturate and we're not ripping easterly winds which is always a big key. Geographically we should be well within the precip shield. 1/3 to 1/2 inch of liquid seems reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Finally some mets share our thoughts on the GFS. Hallelujah Always go snowier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 so the gfs has the right idea here, and the euro is out to lunch? I think Euro might be a shade cold. I also think GFS is a bit warm. For you down there though, that proabbly means mostly rain, but I'll bet you start as a period of steady snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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