Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Hopefully. Unless each storm decides to amplify oer the Plains and move over our fannies.....which is possible.You really don't think you can pull 1-3? I do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Basically connect those two patches of 4-6" and you have 3.5" total in a stripe. The zone needs to average 4" to go with an advisory, so really a toss up. Forecaster discretion as they say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I'm on, but I'm long term, so I'm picking up with the cold front Thursday. I'll show you what we have now, but verbatim we're right on the edge. I was guessing there would be a sharp cut off here or just to the NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 You really don't think you can pull 1-3? I do I might do 1-2 if I'm lucky. It's the same old story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 You really don't think you can pull 1-3? I do Dorchester-Quincy is likely cooked... We could score a quick inch if the CF sets up SE of there for a bit like last storm, but we'll flip early for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 How was the beach? Heavy heavy drinks ad heavy heavy scenery? Exceeded my lofty expectations actually. Eastern PR is really beautiful, could see all the way to St. Thomas on the nice, clear days. Thankfully Mother Nature held off until next week to really dump the cold into New England otherwise I might have applied to the WFO in San Juan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 It looks the same to me... We've been promised a change for weeks. GFS has a warmup saturday, long range has similar setups for us, and has consistently. Transient shots of cold followed by messy storms. It's not our winter x20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 This one is starting to zero in on my local region. I think ORH county could be near jackpot in this. Certainly S NH in the game too for a weenie band. Kevin should do OK too...and despite MPM worrying about QPF, that area looks to do plenty fine in this event. NAM actually has a CF within like 2 miles of the shore...I was mentioning last night I could see that happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 At least Will can get the hell out of Dodge after work and come back to winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 snow_total.jpg Basically connect those two patches of 4-6" and you have 3.5" total in a stripe. The zone needs to average 4" to go with an advisory, so really a toss up. Forecaster discretion as they say. My thinking for here earlier was 2-4" with and outside chance at 5", Srefs mean at 03z were 5.09" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 x20 Haha... Well this next cold shot we cant even extend to a whole 24 hour period. It comes in Thursday night and is already departing Friday early afternoon... That's pretty pathetic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I was guessing there would be a sharp cut off here or just to the NW Pretty much. The maps shows 2-4" for a wide area but we're talking 3.5 to 4.4" quickly going to 2". One of the drawbacks to that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 This one is starting to zero in on my local region. I think ORH county could be near jackpot in this. Certainly S NH in the game too for a weenie band. Kevin should do OK too...and despite MPM worrying about QPF, that area looks to do plenty fine in this event. NAM actually has a CF within like 2 miles of the shore...I was mentioning last night I could see that happening. Definitely possible....tough to Narrow it down within 5 or 10 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Dorchester-Quincy is likely cooked... We could score a quick inch if the CF sets up SE of there for a bit like last storm, but we'll flip early for sure Yeah, I think the "coastal" front will be draped from Beverly over to Medford, down to Newton, Easton to just N of PVD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Haha... Well this next cold shot we cant even extend to a whole 24 hour period. It comes in Thursday night and is already departing Friday early afternoon... That's pretty pathetic Consistently modeled that the serious and more extended cold waits to late MLK weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 My thinking for here earlier was 2-4" with and outside chance at 5", Srefs mean at 03z were 5.09" Really strong clustering on the plumes now between 3 and 5" as of the 09z run. To headline or not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Impressed by the 12z NAM's approaching .7" melted at Logan! ...taken solely that's 2 to 3 hours of 1/4 mi vis from HFD to BED line and a warning event when looking at the synoptic layout off this run. Saw the 06z GFS and raised a flag when it blossomed a moderate pulse of steady precipitation near NYC and advanced it while expanding areal coverage as it moved up over interior SNE and the CP. This region appears legit in the run its self, as there is a right entrance 80kt 500mb jet max riding on the N side of the baroclinic wall between 30-36 hours through NYS/VT/NH, and that should initiate lee-side frontal upglide and UVM. That NAM doesn't appear appreciably different than this. Figure to for light to moderate intensity omega with perhaps a small amount of frontogenic meso thrown in for kicks and giggles. Despite my own reticence to believe this event had a lot of hope 2 days ago, I would suggest at this point going better than a 50% chance for near warning event; I also believe the layout of the advisory (if stayed as adv) is going to have to be expanded E and S, definitely. Although, it is not really clear this is the same impulse in my mind - originally we had a Mon night into Tues discussion. It seems this one really emerged on the tail-end of last night's ana deal, but this fast flow with multiple jet entities makes it difficult hone. "Needle threading" or not, some of the veracious arguments posed on the forum about systems coming N tending to exceed expectation, notwithstanding! I don't see there being as much CP p-type contamination in this as the antecedent air mass is "fresh" polar origin and notoriously will feed-back wet bulbing into critical thickness depths that are cold enough for snowing down to the floor even as far SE as ~ KTAN. The other aspect is that the wind field is so light in this. Figure for straight down small aggregate action 30 or so miles either side of a HFD-BED line (yes this unfortunately includes E-NE CT), with some multi-structured particles but staying white PVD-KTAN. Not sure on the Cape proper and Islands; initially their dp spreads are warm. ACK is 39F! However, the area is currently draining with PVD having a DP of 27F and a steady NNW drift over the last 6 hours, and with so it will be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Consistently modeled that the serious and more extended cold waits to late MLK weekend. "Patience" The word I tried to say at the GTG with this coming pattern. There will be chances. This first event is gravy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Yeah, I think the "coastal" front will be draped from Beverly over to Medford, down to Newton, Easton to just N of PVD. Looks like this time I will share your fate, the 29th I got lucky escaping the rain by a few miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 SSTs are toasty. Compared to 2011 water temps outside of Boston are 3-5 degrees warmer. Heck we're usually getting into the very low 40s by now. That doesn't help either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Really strong clustering on the plumes now between 3 and 5" as of the 09z run. To headline or not? Yeah, 09z is right in the middle with the mean 4.09", Look like only 5 members north of there, Good agreement for that range, Maybe on some zones? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 "Patience" The word I tried to say at the GTG with this coming pattern. There will be chances. This first event is gravy. It's hard to be patient when a wx station in your own town has 15 inches of snow while I'm sitting at no more than 6 (Obv the 650 feet helps... But still) and I'm sure Brookline, West Roxbury, and maybe even Roslindale will clean up here. It's just so close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Consistently modeled that the serious and more extended cold waits to late MLK weekend. The GEFS really flipped on the extent of the cold in the real long term last night. Different thread, but it was a huge move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yukon Cornelius Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 This one is starting to zero in on my local region. I think ORH county could be near jackpot in this. Certainly S NH in the game too for a weenie band. Kevin should do OK too...and despite MPM worrying about QPF, that area looks to do plenty fine in this event. NAM actually has a CF within like 2 miles of the shore...I was mentioning last night I could see that happening. Nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 It's hard to be patient when a wx station in your own town has 15 inches of snow while I'm sitting at no more than 6 (Obv the 650 feet helps... But still) and I'm sure Brookline, West Roxbury, and maybe even Roslindale will clean up here. It's just so close. Yeah I know it's frustrating but the medium to long range is pretty damned rosy. As Will said, anything we get in this system is gravy and really unexpected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Lol Tippy saying unfort this includes NE CT. Thanks for the love. To me this is 3-6 inch regionwide event inland and the jacks get 7-8, and anyone interior is included in that . I don't see why LL up to Scooter can't grab 2-3 or so. To me the key is the dewpoints. Lower dews this time than last will allow the coast to do better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 The GEFS really flipped on the extent of the cold in the real long term last night. Different thread, but it was a huge move. For one run which corrected on the next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Yeah I know it's frustrating but the medium to long range is pretty damned rosy. As Will said, anything we get in this system is gravy and really unexpected. I'll I'm asking is for the CF to setup in Quincy or Braintree and stay there... Is that so much to ask for ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Forget one run, the pattern gets more Pacific jet involved which was and is forecasted. That will also give more moisture chances.....but I digress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Lol Tippy saying unfort this includes NE CT. Thanks for the love. To me this is 3-6 inch regionwide event inland and the jacks get 7-8, and anyone interior is included in that . I don't see why LL up to Scooter can't grab 2-3 or so. To me the key is the dewpoints. Lower dews this time than last will allow the coast to do better It's 40/30 here. My dews were better for 12/29. Just sayin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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