dryslot Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Do you honestly believe that? Yes i do actually when Eck and oceanstwx says they did, Do you? Go on the plumes back them out and you will see it has no affect on them as it did before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Sref seems to outline a bonafide disaster here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Probably late morning early pm after 12z they pull the trigger Perhaps, but I think his area has the higher criteria than the rest of the state. If the forecast is for 3-5 across his area, then they should have one, but 2-4 without a significant ice threat won't do it in most cases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Perhaps, but I think his area has the higher criteria than the rest of the state. If the forecast is for 3-5 across his area, then they should have one, but 2-4 without a significant ice threat won't do it in most cases. Well to be fair to the weather office down there, We have 3-5" here and no WWA, Just a hazardous weather statement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Damn, the NAM drops 0.72" on TAN. Too bad 90% of that is rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Sref seems to outline a bonafide disaster here I didn't see it that way. 1-3 is a win to me and they have that for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I didn't see it that way. 1-3 is a win to me and they have that for us. I think 1-3" is much safer for you than me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Damn, the NAM drops 0.72" on TAN. Too bad 90% of that is rain. It shifted the qpf further up here as well with close to that in extreme Southern Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Well to be fair to the weather office down there, We have 3-5" here and no WWA, Just a hazardous weather statement In parts of Maine I think a WWA may be 5 inch average, so that would make sense if you live in one of those areas. NWS used to have a nice book (central region still has one out) that breaks down all the different winter weather advisory critieria by WFO and lists out all the zone exceptions, so at least you could make sense of the warning configurations based on that reference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I didn't see it that way. 1-3 is a win to me and they have that for us. Yeah, BOS looks OK, verbatim. http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_kbos.txt Not sure about snowgrowth, etc... but warmest level is the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Damn, the NAM drops 0.72" on TAN. Too bad 90% of that is rain. Eastern MA keeps getting F'ed in the A this year!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Ryan's boss map. This is exactly how things should shake out @bobmaxon: Winter Returns!! Snow around midnight to midday. Big trouble for the morning commute on Wednesday. http://t.co/piRIHLbo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Sref s are skewed warm with the faulty ARW members. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/help/ptypeerror.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Do you honestly believe that? And they weren't skewed warm either. They just didn't assign ptype to snow or ice, resulting in low balled snow/ice mean amounts. Temps were always fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 In parts of Maine I think a WWA may be 5 inch average, so that would make sense if you live in one of those areas. NWS used to have a nice book (central region still has one out) that breaks down all the different winter weather advisory critieria by WFO and lists out all the zone exceptions, so at least you could make sense of the warning configurations based on that reference. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/winter.html Scroll down to Terminology & Watch/Warning/Advisory Criteria Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 15, 2013 Author Share Posted January 15, 2013 Nice map Kevin damn cold out here and solid overcast temps going nowhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 And they weren't skewed warm either. They just didn't assign ptype to snow or ice, resulting in low balled snow/ice mean amounts. Temps were always fine.Ok I missed your post yesterday that they have been fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 It shifted the qpf further up here as well with close to that in extreme Southern Maine You guys are the only given in this I think...still like 3-6 loon to sunday river, if not more. It's a nice refresher. WHDH very conservative, just said he thinks Boston is all rain until maybe lunch Wednesday before it flips. To me it looks like decent precip rates would overcome the BL pretty quickly, but guess not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Ryan's boss map. This is exactly how things should shake out @bobmaxon: Winter Returns!! Snow around midnight to midday. Big trouble for the morning commute on Wednesday. http://t.co/piRIHLbo you seeing any lollies to 7 or 8? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 You guys are the only given in this I think...still like 3-6 loon to sunday river, if not more. It's a nice refresher. WHDH very conservative, just said he thinks Boston is all rain until maybe lunch Wednesday before it flips. To me it looks like decent precip rates would overcome the BL pretty quickly, but guess not. Rain to lunch and flip to snow? Suspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Nice map Kevin damn cold out here and solid overcast temps going nowhereYeah Bobby M is good. I think you grab 2-4 down there and mix with sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 You guys are the only given in this I think...still like 3-6 loon to sunday river, if not more. It's a nice refresher. WHDH very conservative, just said he thinks Boston is all rain until maybe lunch Wednesday before it flips. To me it looks like decent precip rates would overcome the BL pretty quickly, but guess not. This will be another garbage storm even if it starts as snow. Jerry might squeeze a little more out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Nice map Kevin damn cold out here and solid overcast temps going nowhere Ovc and 29 here.. We know who is going to get the most snow in this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/winter.html Scroll down to Terminology & Watch/Warning/Advisory Criteria Are you on? Map soon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I see nothing so far to suggest to change the 2-5" amounts stated in the WWA. Maybe that low-end is less likely if you agree with the NAM; but with the SREF as it is, I'd say let it ride unless something significant happens. Wide-spread 2-5 with spot 6's in amongst Will and Dave. Enjoy it--timing might force a snow day FHDW (for hubbdave's win). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 This will be another garbage storm even if it starts as snow. Jerry might squeeze a little more out of this. Not new news for us though. After this we should do a lot better next week and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Not new news for us though. After this we should do a lot better next week and beyond. Hopefully. Unless each storm decides to amplify oer the Plains and move over our fannies.....which is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Not new news for us though. After this we should do a lot better next week and beyond. It looks the same to me... We've been promised a change for weeks. GFS has a warmup saturday, long range has similar setups for us, and has consistently. Transient shots of cold followed by messy storms. It's not our winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Are you on? Map soon? I'm on, but I'm long term, so I'm picking up with the cold front Thursday. I'll show you what we have now, but verbatim we're right on the edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I'm on, but I'm long term, so I'm picking up with the cold front Thursday. I'll show you what we have now, but verbatim we're right on the edge. How was the beach? Heavy heavy drinks ad heavy heavy scenery? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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