dryslot Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Its colder here no question looking at 6z, it warms but after most of the precip has fallen.Even the surface is colder along with 850s, not sure about out east was only looking around here. It pushes the 546 thickness and 0c line back to the NW moreso then 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 15, 2013 Author Share Posted January 15, 2013 LOLz Its pretty easy just look at 6z for us, 850s and surface, yes it warms later but look when accumlated precip has fallen, and simulated radar. Quick thump ending as light rain and drizzle.......hope for the best, I think you will be just fine if you keep expectations in check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 15, 2013 Author Share Posted January 15, 2013 It pushes the 546 thickness and 0c line back to the NW moreso then 06z yes after most precip is done, here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 That's the warmest nam run yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 As already stated, it's pretty juiced as well. 0.5" for all of CT/RI/SEMA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Final Call 2-4" for 128 belt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Pretty surprised there's no WWA here yet, I wonder what they're waiting for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 upper advisory low end warning amounts here ill take the nam and run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Its pretty easy just look at 6z for us, 850s and surface, yes it warms later but look when accumlated precip has fallen, and simulated radar. Quick thump ending as light rain and drizzle.......hope for the best, I think you will be just fine if you keep expectations in check. makes sense...that will the be key for us-getting a thump before temps rise. With it coming at night, that only helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 As already stated, it's pretty juiced as well. 0.5" for all of CT/RI/SEMA. 67% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 That's the warmest nam run yetwho cares Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Just so you guys know theres an easier link now to dual pol radar from the NWS http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge2/ridgenew2/?rid=ENX&pid=N0R&lat=43.29108512644793&lon=-73.74067070078126&zoom=7&frames=1&fs=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Thumpity Dump on the NAM 4-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 If we want to get really technical, It actuallly ticked NW some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Thumpity Dump on the NAM 4-6 Very SWFish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I think 5" is a good call for MBY, time to get that WWA out Albany! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 yes after most precip is done, here. I was not looking at any specific areas, Just the general consensus, As phil pointed out, Warmer for some and colder for a few as well early on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Thats great thanks! Just so you guys know theres an easier link now to dual pol radar from the NWS http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge2/ridgenew2/?rid=ENX&pid=N0R&lat=43.29108512644793&lon=-73.74067070078126&zoom=7&frames=1&fs=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 sref probs pretty much define what we mean when we say N of the Pike that's pretty cool: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 sref probs pretty much define what we mean when we say N of the Pike that's pretty cool: sref.png Makes no sense. NWS has no tainting issues for the entirety of N CT where more precip will likely fall than that highest prob. area. Do the SREFs take ratios into consideration? I thought that was ignored on those ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Makes no sense. NWS has no tainting issues for the entirety of N CT where more precip will likely fall than that highest prob. area. Do the SREFs take ratios into consideration? I thought that was ignored on those ensembles.Sref s are skewed warm with the faulty ARW members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I think some in CT will see some pingers with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Sref s are skewed warm with the faulty ARW members. That was fixed as was discussed yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Sref s are skewed warm with the faulty ARW members. There are no faulty ARW members, That has been fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Islands/CC warm up but most of the precipitation is gone.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I think some in CT will see some pingers with this one. I agree with you, Not that it matters much here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I think some in CT will see some pingers with this one. yes S.CT has issues.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Pretty surprised there's no WWA here yet, I wonder what they're waiting for? Maybe they don't think there will be an average of 4 inches across the forecast zone? That would be my guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Maybe they don't think there will be an average of 4 inches across the forecast zone? That would be my guess. Probably late morning early pm after 12z they pull the trigger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 There are no faulty ARW members, That has been fixedDo you honestly believe that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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