Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 What are they saying? They were questioning 3-6 amounts early yesterday on my FB page..Now they're no longer doing that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Are you from the future? I'm dangerous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 SREF mean has been pretty consistent at 3" for KBOS the last few runs. Going to hope it's right but definitely a little nervous about bl issues since mby has pretty much within 5 miles of the good or bad side of every cf this winter so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yukon Cornelius Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Congrats, Will and Dave!! A little different than my thinking. Liking that map! Not sure we'll get that much, but just give me a solid 3" to fill in the bare spots and start a nice foundation for rebuilding the pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Dont get me wrong, Kevin is in a great spot. But I think the upslope Worcester hills wring out qpf better for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Snow totals cutback in my area. As expected. The antecedent airmass blows with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 LOL-this is a garbage event outside of the highest elevations....no cold air as usual.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 15, 2013 Author Share Posted January 15, 2013 I am going big. Love the nw winds, love the lower dews moving in and love the fact our winds are ne down here, being west helps. Also the fact that this comes in over night helps tremendously, I do not think the mid levels will be an issue and any bl issues will be overcome quickly. 2-4 sw ct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 15, 2013 Author Share Posted January 15, 2013 LOL-this is a garbage event outside of the highest elevations....no cold air as usual.... You were gone during the last one, the airmass was also putrid and you did just fine, we are later in the season, climo argues you stay all snow up there. Enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 15, 2013 Author Share Posted January 15, 2013 I was shocked to see and sleet snow mix last night around 1am when I woke up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 15, 2013 Author Share Posted January 15, 2013 For the first time in a long time I have a good feeling about this, I think the models tick se today..........throw caution to the wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 For the first time in a long time I have a good feeling about this, I think the models tick se today..........throw weenies to the wind. Yeah several......... :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 For the first time in a long time I have a good feeling about this, I think the models tick se today..........throw caution to the wind. Let's see what the 12z American suite does. They were the warmest of the bunch. I was taken to the woodshed on 12/29 with the sneaky warmth and ended up with ~1/2 what I thought I would get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 15, 2013 Author Share Posted January 15, 2013 Let's see what the 12z American suite does. They were the warmest of the bunch. I was taken to the woodshed on 12/29 with the sneaky warmth and ended up with ~1/2 what I thought I would get. West is best on the south shore our winds here stay ne. Evening arrival time and decent intensity shall overcome. Just have a feeling here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 West is best on the south shore our winds here stay ne. Evening arrival time and decent intensity shall overcome. Just have a feeling here. Yeah, in this case I'd feel more confident about your area than mine. From BOX. Love the confidence they have for my area. THE TRICKIEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDORFROM BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE...INCLUDING COASTAL MA. MID LEVELTEMPERATURES ARE UNCERTAIN SINCE THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENTAMONG SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE. IN ADDITION...ALONG THE IMMEDIATEEASTERN MA COAST A SUBTLE SEA BREEZE FRONT WITH MARGINAL TEMPS COULDRESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF RAIN. THAT WILL DEPEND ONMESOSCALE FEATURES THAT ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIMERANGE. FOR NOW...WE WENT WITH A SLOPPY INCH OR TWO IN THIS REGIONBUT COULD END UP HIGHER OR BARELY ANYTHING DEPENDING ON MODELTRENDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Seabreeze front BOX? LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Another example of the Gfs adding confusion.everything else in agreement on cold but because so many use GFS there's confusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Northeast snowfall forecast map courtesy of BTV for this storm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Seabreeze front BOX? LOL. Well there is one modeled to be there. How strong and how far inland it penetrates is yet to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Well there is one modeled to be there. How strong and how far inland it penetrates is yet to be seen. It's not a seabreeze front in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 There could be a bit of a weenie band over MA for a time...several of the models show a little tail of lift taking its time to exit stage right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Another example of the Gfs adding confusion.everything else in agreement on cold but because so many use GFS there's confusion. What is it confusing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 It's not a seabreeze front in January. Yeah a little weird on the wording....that would imply its only a daytime thing, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 It's not a seabreeze front in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Northeast snowfall forecast map courtesy of BTV for this storm.... photo1.JPG Yeah, a 2-4" looks safe bet here with 5" possibly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 15, 2013 Author Share Posted January 15, 2013 Euro actually ticked colder here at the surface, giving the king one last chance, if the gfs temp profiles win out again its time to blend these two models 50/50 the gfs has had a very good winter, really not sure why Kevin is so against it, even the hi res models are warmer than the Euro. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 15, 2013 Author Share Posted January 15, 2013 How was the latest RGEM anyone know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Yeah a little weird on the wording....that would imply its only a daytime thing, lol. Yeah funny on the wording..lol, but I understand what they are getting at. Agreed about the weenie band..might be Pike north area for that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I'm taking Kevin's advice..just closing my eyes until Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Euro actually ticked colder here at the surface, giving the king one last chance, if the gfs temp profiles win out again its time to blend these two models 50/50 the gfs has had a very good winter, really not sure why Kevin is so against it, even the hi res models are warmer than the Euro. Interesting. No it hasn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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