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Snow Event 1/15-1/16


Mr Torchey

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The winds are pretty ugly for the coast on the 00z GFS...hope for more of a Euro/NAM.

 

Scooter is tying a noose in his sleep. The surface reflection is so weak winds are never able to back and we're left with an onshore flow. 

 

Verbatim that's probably better for HVN than BOS :axe:

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Scooter is tying a noose in his sleep. The surface reflection is so weak winds are never able to back and we're left with an onshore flow. 

 

Verbatim that's probably better for HVN than BOS :axe:

 

 

Yeah that is another nigthmare scenario for Scooter. Ray probably get 4-5" and he gets a quick coating and flips to rain.

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Yeah that is another nigthmare scenario for Scooter. Ray probably get 4-5" and he gets a quick coating and flips to rain.

 

Ray probably cashes in from some coastal front enhancement too as Scooter jumps off the Tobin. The GFS seems to me to be a weenie band setup on the I-84/495 corridor through SNE. 

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I don't understand why my soundings from accupro look great but you guys say I'm tying a noose

 

 

BOS BL warms pretty good...they start off as snow on the GFs, but probably go to rain after a couple hours. The other guidance looks better for them, so its not like the GFS should be taken hook, line and sinker. NAM/RGEM and the Euro earlier were mostly snow. We'll see what the rest of the 00z suite says. Just checked the Ukie sounding for BOS and its an easy snow sounding...the difference is the snow soundings have very light BL flow...or even slightly northerly flow like the NAM....but the common denominator is no stiff easterly wind.

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BOS BL warms pretty good...they start off as snow on the GFs, but probably go to rain after a couple hours. The other guidance looks better for them, so its not like the GFS should be taken hook, line and sinker. NAM/RGEM and the Euro earlier were mostly snow. We'll see what the rest of the 00z suite says. Just checked the Ukie sounding for BOS and its an easy snow sounding...the difference is the snow soundings have very light BL flow...or even slightly northerly flow like the NAM....but the common denominator is no stiff easterly wind.

Here lies my confusion.. 42 with my lat long

Screenshot_2013-01-14-22-52-46_zps62c1ae

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Here lies my confusion.. 42 with my lat long Screenshot_2013-01-14-22-52-46_zps62c1ae

 

 

 

That doesn't look right...something is messed up with the way its making the sounding. Its not even close to saturated. The KBOS sounding looks like this at 42h:

130115040922.gif

 

 

 

 

 

 

edit: I just realized your sounding is from last nights 00z GFS.

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The main reason the easterly wind is an issue at all is because once again, the mid levels are too close. With -6/7C on 850 you'd probably be able to overcome a stiff east wind much longer.

 

 

Yeah you can get away with easterly BL winds if its colder aloft. You got away with it during 1/12/11....paste bomb because it was so cold just off the deck.

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Yeah you can get away with easterly BL winds if its colder aloft. You got away with it during 1/12/11....paste bomb because it was so cold just off the deck.

Lol...great storm my meltdown notwithstanding. I think our chances for snow improved slightly with the 0Z runs so far.

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Yeah you can get away with easterly BL winds if its colder aloft. You got away with it during 1/12/11....paste bomb because it was so cold just off the deck.

You can actually see the coastal boundary pretty well defined in the GFS 18z Wed despite no real sfc wind above 5-7 kts.

post-13-0-68449600-1358223489_thumb.png

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I think we're okay.  May flirt with crappy ratio snows for a time, but I'm expecting about 3-4" here.

 

 

I doubt anyone outside of 128 has to worry about rain unless the MLs get too warm...which looks a bit less likely with the north trend halted for the moment on the 00z suite. Might have to deal with wet snow...but snow nonetheless.

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