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Snow Event 1/15-1/16


Mr Torchey

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I'm pretty bullish on advisory amounts here.

 

I would too if I were you.

 

3-6" event looks fairly likely in the elevated interior.

 

I have some reservations for the lower elevations, given now a warm-ish ground and what may be a marginal airmass at 500ft and lower...they may see like a 32-33F 1-3" of 8:1 ratio snow, while 800ft+ sees 3-6" of more efficiently accumulating 29-31F 12:1 ratio snow... or something like that.

 

Its not like the arctic hounds are rushing in prior to this system... its taking its sweet time entering NNE even.  But cold-ish temps at 925mb should ensure the interior higher terrain is good.

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I will be interested to see if the GFS is actually right, or if it has just overshot the mark a bit. The trend has definitely been north, which isn't surprising, this had the "look" of one of those northward trenders, but at the same time, we only have so much room in the very fast flow.

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I still fully believe this area is too far north for anything other than flurries, however to me the telling thing is how slow it has been for it to cool off up here.

 

24 hour forecast yesterday at this time had Mansfield summit in the mid teens right now (with snowmaking in progress from top to bottom)... its currently leveled off at 23F at 4,000ft (dropped to 22F and held, now risen to 23F) and its 33F at 1,500ft.  Heck I'm still at 35F here in town and its really struggling to fall.

 

Should've seen this coming when the front kept getting pushed back several hours and NW winds at H85 are not nearly as strong as they were supposed to be.  It is what it is and maybe it doesn't make a difference, but seeing how the CAA is struggling even compared with 24-36 hour progs, the NW trend isn't that surprising I guess.

 

Still pretty warm out there... overnight lows were supposed to be around 10F two days ago, now its "near 20F".

 

attachicon.gifmesomap.jpg

 

I agree re how slow it's been to chill off, and that's hand in hand with the storm getting further north.

 

I think the area from Loon up over to Shawnee sees 3-6 out of this, maybe SR too.

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I will be interested to see if the GFS is actually right, or if it has just overshot the mark a bit. The trend has definitely been north, which isn't surprising, this had the "look" of one of those northward trenders, but at the same time, we only have so much room in the very fast flow.

Stuff originating in the deep south always has that possibility, but I would be a liar if I said I'm not surprised at the GFS. Positively tilted trough and fast flow only allows you to go so far north, but did not expect this.

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Dewpoints are dropping quickly. This is not an Arctic front lol. Slow bleed. Can not believe how much faith is put in the GFS, even on 12/29 it had me raining, oh it got semass right for a while but totally missed the changeover.

Well I'm not in bed with it, but I don't see a reason to completely dismiss it.

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Stuff originating in the deep south always has that possibility, but I would be a liar if I said I'm not surprised at the GFS. Positively tilted trough and fast flow only allows you to go so far north, but did not expect this.

Yeah some folks think this just keeps trending north until the end. It's an open wave not a deep neg tilt . If anything we may see a SE tickle the last 24
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Stuff originating in the deep south always has that possibility, but I would be a liar if I said I'm not surprised at the GFS. Positively tilted trough and fast flow only allows you to go so far north, but did not expect this.

 

Yeah, on the flip side its that fast flow that should limit accums to advisory level in the hardest hit area.  If we had some blocking to slow the stream down, that low could probably go to town.  It seems the more it amps, the wetter it'll be, but the faster and more suppressed it moves, the drier it'll be.  Thread the needle.

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Yeah some folks think this just keeps trending north until the end. It's an open wave not a deep neg tilt . If anything we may see a SE tickle the last 24

I wouldn't be shocked at one last move north. I really don't know what to expect. After expecting mostly mid level clouds 2 days ago, I might turn to rain lol. Go figure.

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Yeah some folks think this just keeps trending north until the end. It's an open wave not a deep neg tilt . If anything we may see a SE tickle the last 24

 

24-48 hours when it was only grazing the south coast, you were banging the its coming north drum...now that it has done so, you think its going to tickle SE?

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