CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 This winter blows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 This winter blows. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 This winter blows.What are your thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 15, 2013 Author Share Posted January 15, 2013 This winter blows. +27 blows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 This winter blows. Stay the course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 15, 2013 Author Share Posted January 15, 2013 This winter blows. Scooter you will get your thump, it could be worse you could be down here for this.......snow is snow, get Bryce out in the dendrites wed am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 This looks decent to me as far as area but I might have 5-6 in Max areashttp://mnoy.es/VGBy5G Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I'm pretty bullish on advisory amounts here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I'm somewhat confident that this is the last bs system for awhile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Noyes brings up good point about poor snow growth. Only has mixing on far s coast. Jerry you're fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Noyes brings up good point about poor snow growth. Only has mixing on far s coast. Jerry you're fine Snow growth didn't look too bad to me back here (when it wasn't raining). I like to be within 24 hrs though to start getting that cute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Ole man winter hopefully will blow in our direction lake effect should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 This winter blows. Life after 10/29/11 lives on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Noyes brings up good point about poor snow growth. Only has mixing on far s coast. Jerry you're fine I hope to god your right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I'm pretty bullish on advisory amounts here. I would too if I were you. 3-6" event looks fairly likely in the elevated interior. I have some reservations for the lower elevations, given now a warm-ish ground and what may be a marginal airmass at 500ft and lower...they may see like a 32-33F 1-3" of 8:1 ratio snow, while 800ft+ sees 3-6" of more efficiently accumulating 29-31F 12:1 ratio snow... or something like that. Its not like the arctic hounds are rushing in prior to this system... its taking its sweet time entering NNE even. But cold-ish temps at 925mb should ensure the interior higher terrain is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Life after 10/29/11 lives on I am behind where I was last year at this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I'm pretty bullish on advisory amounts here. You still have clients to forecast for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 You still have clients to forecast for? Yep, I still do some stuff on the side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 It does have that pike north and 495 west appeal but I would extend that into Rays area too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I am behind where I was last year at this time Scooter made the reference last week that ever since that date he has been on basically a snow less streak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I will be interested to see if the GFS is actually right, or if it has just overshot the mark a bit. The trend has definitely been north, which isn't surprising, this had the "look" of one of those northward trenders, but at the same time, we only have so much room in the very fast flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I still fully believe this area is too far north for anything other than flurries, however to me the telling thing is how slow it has been for it to cool off up here. 24 hour forecast yesterday at this time had Mansfield summit in the mid teens right now (with snowmaking in progress from top to bottom)... its currently leveled off at 23F at 4,000ft (dropped to 22F and held, now risen to 23F) and its 33F at 1,500ft. Heck I'm still at 35F here in town and its really struggling to fall. Should've seen this coming when the front kept getting pushed back several hours and NW winds at H85 are not nearly as strong as they were supposed to be. It is what it is and maybe it doesn't make a difference, but seeing how the CAA is struggling even compared with 24-36 hour progs, the NW trend isn't that surprising I guess. Still pretty warm out there... overnight lows were supposed to be around 10F two days ago, now its "near 20F". mesomap.jpg I agree re how slow it's been to chill off, and that's hand in hand with the storm getting further north. I think the area from Loon up over to Shawnee sees 3-6 out of this, maybe SR too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I will be interested to see if the GFS is actually right, or if it has just overshot the mark a bit. The trend has definitely been north, which isn't surprising, this had the "look" of one of those northward trenders, but at the same time, we only have so much room in the very fast flow. Stuff originating in the deep south always has that possibility, but I would be a liar if I said I'm not surprised at the GFS. Positively tilted trough and fast flow only allows you to go so far north, but did not expect this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Dewpoints are dropping quickly. This is not an Arctic front lol. Slow bleed. Can not believe how much faith is put in the GFS, even on 12/29 it had me raining, oh it got semass right for a while but totally missed the changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Dewpoints are dropping quickly. This is not an Arctic front lol. Slow bleed. Can not believe how much faith is put in the GFS, even on 12/29 it had me raining, oh it got semass right for a while but totally missed the changeover. Well I'm not in bed with it, but I don't see a reason to completely dismiss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Stuff originating in the deep south always has that possibility, but I would be a liar if I said I'm not surprised at the GFS. Positively tilted trough and fast flow only allows you to go so far north, but did not expect this.Yeah some folks think this just keeps trending north until the end. It's an open wave not a deep neg tilt . If anything we may see a SE tickle the last 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Stuff originating in the deep south always has that possibility, but I would be a liar if I said I'm not surprised at the GFS. Positively tilted trough and fast flow only allows you to go so far north, but did not expect this. Yeah, on the flip side its that fast flow that should limit accums to advisory level in the hardest hit area. If we had some blocking to slow the stream down, that low could probably go to town. It seems the more it amps, the wetter it'll be, but the faster and more suppressed it moves, the drier it'll be. Thread the needle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Yeah some folks think this just keeps trending north until the end. It's an open wave not a deep neg tilt . If anything we may see a SE tickle the last 24 I wouldn't be shocked at one last move north. I really don't know what to expect. After expecting mostly mid level clouds 2 days ago, I might turn to rain lol. Go figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Yeah some folks think this just keeps trending north until the end. It's an open wave not a deep neg tilt . If anything we may see a SE tickle the last 24 24-48 hours when it was only grazing the south coast, you were banging the its coming north drum...now that it has done so, you think its going to tickle SE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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