N. OF PIKE Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 18z GEFS have 0c line from scituate,ma to tolland to 5 miles north of danbury, ct. at 12z wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 18z GEFS have 0c line from scituate,ma to tolland to 5 miles north of danbury, ct. at 12z wednesday. Yeah pretty substantial bump north. I still use GEFS/Euro ens at this range and I still find it useful to use when model swings are continuing and trends aren't over. Once we get within 24H it's time to ditch the GEFS and do more SREF stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I totally get it just wondered if some geek kept scores. We know that geek is out there somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 What are your thoughts for SW ME at this point? Seems like we've gone pretty quickly from being high and dry to in the game. Well if in the game means a couple inches possibly then I'm on board. Pretty sure I had the PWM area right around 2" with today's forecast. Looking at the plumes there seems to be a nice cluster around 1.5" and another right around 3.5 to 4". Seems a reasonable range of possibilities at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 one of BOS best mets "tweets" around noon. Odds of snow on Wednesday are increasing, with some mixing possible coast & from Boston south...more later today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Wow the 18z GFS is even warmer than I thought now that I'm looking at the BUFKIT soundings. Ugh. Hideous. Still a tough forecast... probably have to stay conservative for now with a 1-3 kinda deal down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 The muted torch today was not boring.true dat, looking forward to dry and cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Just ignore the Rgem trend colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 This should end up looking nice when its issued and prob close to reality @MattNoyesNECN: Working on drawing the New England accumulation map, but suffice to say 3"-5" will be common from Central NH southward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 seems pretty consistent forecast for Bos area barry burbank Presently, amounts of 1-4" of snow projected for Wednesday with the least closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Wow the 18z GFS is even warmer than I thought now that I'm looking at the BUFKIT soundings. Ugh. Hideous. Still a tough forecast... probably have to stay conservative for now with a 1-3 kinda deal down here. Can't believe the 18z GFS today vs. yesterday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Just ignore the Rgem trend colder Just saw it. Yeah that's a nice sign. Looks like it is a tick colder with ptype issues IJD/Ginx... snow up here though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Can't believe the 18z GFS today vs. yesterday...just ignore the Euro/ Rgem/ euro ens/ srefs mean/GGEM/ Gefs and Nogaps. Just base everything off GFS because its warm and typically always right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Relax we are fine here. It can only come north so far. Far enough north so that we could change over to cold rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 just ignore the Euro/ Rgem/ euro ens/ srefs mean/GGEM/ Gefs and Nogaps. Just base everything off GFS because its warm and typically always right The trends have all been north to one degree or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 just ignore the Euro/ Rgem/ euro ens/ srefs mean/GGEM/ Gefs and Nogaps. Just base everything off GFS because its warm and typically always right We get it. You're tossing all the warm models and dry models and just going with cold and wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 one of BOS best mets "tweets" around noon. Odds of snow on Wednesday are increasing, with some mixing possible coast & from Boston south...more later today Harvey? Go verbatim with his idea. If I had gun to head I'd say 1 inch front end and then rain. Going whole hog with GFS as I believe they are onto it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I just can't get around the huge elephant who's farts are still being felt as he departs for places unknown. So for that reason, and the fact that the cold isn't charging in just yet I am bearish for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 1 to 3 I-84 area 2 to 4 around the pike and maybe 3 to 5 north of the pike and that should do it not a big storm but something to track and have fun with.. Sure does not look as boring as it did yesterday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Can't believe the 18z GFS today vs. yesterday...just ignore the Euro/ Rgem/ euro ens/ srefs mean/GGEM/ Gefs and Nogaps. Just base everything off GFS because its warm and typically always right go with what's hot, GFS has been, if its start trending colder that would be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 We get it. You're tossing all the warm models and dry models and just going with cold and wet.No, I allowed the Gefs in. It gets mixing to s coast blended in. I only tossed 1 outlier model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 a earlier poster said bos harbor bouy was 7 degrees cooler than the last event dec 29. NO, not so much. http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44013 45.3 . Hope the east wind is non existant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 No, I allowed the Gefs in. It gets mixing to s coast blended in. I only tossed 1 outlier model the 18z gefs have 0c line on your fanny (exactly) at 12z wednesday. others are colder. so ML temps are an issue to watch (potentially( in Ct/Ri/interior Se mass) and BL temps seems to be a potential issue right along the coast (esp. bos south) perhaps n. shore to but i have no idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 a earlier poster said bos harbor bouy was 7 degrees cooler than the last event dec 29. NO, not so much. http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44013 45.3 . Hope the east wind is non existant I wondered about that ny harbor has actually gone up but that is not surprising its been 11 days since they have been below freezing, will probably end up being 15 days straight without a freezing temp at central park lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I just can't get around the huge elephant who's farts are still being felt as he departs for places unknown. So for that reason, and the fact that the cold isn't charging in just yet I am bearish for my area. I was thinking the same thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 No, I allowed the Gefs in. It gets mixing to s coast blended in. I only tossed 1 outlier model Guess you're tossing the 18z GEFS now that it has trended much warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 NBC4 is calling for 2.3" for the Vernon/Coventry area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 a earlier poster said bos harbor bouy was 7 degrees cooler than the last event dec 29. NO, not so much. http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44013 45.3 . Hope the east wind is non existant Yeah my bad. The site I saw was incorrect. Probably a quick 1/2 inch to rain here based on gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Guess you're tossing the 18z GEFS now that it has trended much warmer. Consider it tossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Yeah my bad. The site I saw was incorrect. Probably a quick 1/2 inch to rain here based on gfs well who knows, I would think that the last storm being more a LP area moving thru had deeper SE/E flow ahead of it , if this is acting more like a SWFE, i think the CF will be weaker? and barely existant? perhaps E of 95 in essex county then to like along Route 1 down to maybe scott. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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