Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Yeah 12z Euro is good... the GFS is concerning for the I-84 corridor. Not sure what else there is to say when the north trend clearly hasn't ceased. Some of the higher res models and the SREF members are pretty mild. Not sure why you're tossing things just because they don't give you more than 2 or 3 inches of snow. After x number of years does this action really surprise you? The NOGAPs was only a tiny bit warmer/maybe the same at 18z, which is very comforting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 It's true data? Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Yesterday the same folks who were saying nary a flake are now on the over amp page. Meterology not modeology I think not. Suffice to say the Ens smooth the bumps and are pretty much in agreement. Not saying what is right but the posters most of whom claim they do not, swing like Tarzan from a tree run to run. If 0 Z trends south then they willl reverse their posts. If I had to forecast for a living, snow possible mixing with sleet and changing to rain from SWCT to a line running south of BDL to Boston. Highest accumulations away from the coast 3-6 is possible away from the coast. Inland north of this line all snow with 4-6 with lesser amounts North of Springfield and Worcester. Then like a typical wxman add the caveat and caution flag, could be more and could be less. Then all you would hear at the water cooler tomorrow would be, Ginxy said snow tomorrow as much as six inches. A sad, truth. SREF means are pretty far north with the highest snow totals in the 6 hour windows. Basically they're tossing a coin regarding ptype for central CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 A sad, truth. SREF means are pretty far north with the highest snow totals in the 6 hour windows. Basically they're tossing a coin regarding ptype for central CT. Are those still inaccurate because of the ARW ptype issues? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 We should sneak a web cam somewhere where it can be pointed at Kevin's house so we can relish in his abject p-type sadness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Glades, not anything we ski anyways RGEM isn't bad, maybe a little cooler. So at 18z the NAM and RGEM were colder, the GFS a lot warmer, the NOGAPs about the same, RPM warmer. Hard to draw a significant conclusion from that and really no need to at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 A sad, truth. SREF means are pretty far north with the highest snow totals in the 6 hour windows. Basically they're tossing a coin regarding ptype for central CT. I know just busting but it's so true. You guys do an awesome job laying out zones and possibilities and I go into work after Ryan has said mostly rain SE CT , snow inland in far NCT and the first thing I hear is what time are we closing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I know just busting but it's so true. You guys do an awesome job laying out zones and possibilities and I go into work after Ryan has said mostly rain SE CT , snow inland in far NCT and the first thing I hear is what time are we closing. That's the way it works! I actually posted a forecast on my Facebook page and wrote that the snow could be a little more siginifcant than first thought. Someone commented "What happened to the sunny forecast?" I didn't have that in there but another station did. Unfortunately we all get lumped in together sometime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 It's true data? Link? That ensembles are less useful close in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Are those still inaccurate because of the ARW ptype issues? The ptype issues have been fixed as of the 8th I believe. So all ARW members should be accurately depicting snowfall/ice totals based on their physics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 i'd rather be ray than kevin in this event I might agree with you at this stage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 This 4 panel lays it out nicely. High probability of at least an inch across northern CT, but if you want to get into the higher totals you need to go north of there where mixing is less of an issue. Tells you right away that the SREF mean is supporting the 18z GFS evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I'm not saying it's right but it's foolish to toss every model run that doesn't jackpot you for snow. It's possible the whole thing comes farther north and warms us up a bit too much. At this point it seems to be in the realm of possibility. And... FYI... you're love-child computer model (the RPM) has like 2.3" for you before changing you over to not sleet or freezing rain... but plain rain lol. It is on the outter realm of guidance at this point.... but its also more recent than the other runs folks are comparing it to. Hypothetically speaking, its funny because from a standpoint that if all the other models were out to sea and just scraping the south coast, and then the 18z GFS comes in amped like that and crushed I-84/I-90 corridor (when all other guidance is out to sea SE), the mentality would be that this isn't done trending and everything else will come north. This looks really quite solid on any model from the Pike area north into S.VT and S.NH and ORH/BED/BOS. That NE MA area does really well in these quasi-SWFE situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 HPC has this as a pike to RTE2/Ma border situ WRT best odds of 4+ http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?fpd=24&ptype=snow&amt=1&day=2&ftype=probabilities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 The SREF plume viewer shows negligible difference when dropping ARW at IJD http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20130114&RT=15&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=IJD&INC=&NNC=ARW&max=&min=&mZOOM=8&mLAT=41.984674099176885&mLON=-71.78395562630273&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 The SREF plume viewer shows negligible difference when dropping ARW at IJD http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20130114&RT=15&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=IJD&INC=&NNC=ARW&max=&min=&mZOOM=8&mLAT=41.984674099176885&mLON=-71.78395562630273&mTYP=roadmap It is fixed so why drop them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 It is on the outter realm of guidance at this point.... but its also more recent than the other runs folks are comparing it to. Hypothetically speaking, its funny because from a standpoint that if all the other models were out to sea and just scraping the south coast, and then the 18z GFS comes in amped like that and crushed I-84/I-90 corridor (when all other guidance is out to sea SE), the mentality would be that this isn't done trending and everything else will come north. This looks really quite solid on any model from the Pike area north into S.VT and S.NH and ORH/BED/BOS. That NE MA area does really well in these quasi-SWFE situations. well i wonder how essex county mass does .....that ocean is mighty mild if qpf is falling in NE mass mid morning i wonder if some sneaky 35F temps and rain push in a few to several miles IF there is any east ligh breeze. bootleg airmass......not sold on bos on beverly getting 3+ but i figure best to wait and see, def could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 It is on the outter realm of guidance at this point.... but its also more recent than the other runs folks are comparing it to. Hypothetically speaking, its funny because from a standpoint that if all the other models were out to sea and just scraping the south coast, and then the 18z GFS comes in amped like that and crushed I-84/I-90 corridor (when all other guidance is out to sea SE), the mentality would be that this isn't done trending and everything else will come north. This looks really quite solid on any model from the Pike area north into S.VT and S.NH and ORH/BED/BOS. That NE MA area does really well in these quasi-SWFE situations. Well you pretty much nail on head there. A trend is only a trend when it means more snow in the particular persons back yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 well i wonder how essex county mass does .....that ocean is mighty mild if qpf is falling in NE mass mid morning i wonder if some sneaky 35F temps and rain push in a few to several miles IF there is any east ligh breeze. bootleg airmass......not sold on bos on beverly getting 3+ but i figure best to wait and see, def could happen. My pick for the event is ORH.... that's a shocker, I know, lol. Just far enough north to avoid rain or mix and just far enough south to get into the best possible lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 That ensembles are less useful close in? What's the cutoff, are less accurate at 60.72 or 48? I mean intuitive thinking says yes at 48 they would be, but so many times even at 24 ENS did better than an op run at the same time. I am sure there are stats, science somewhere, always wondered if there was or just a weenie supposition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 What's the cutoff, are less accurate at 60.72 or 48? I mean intuitive thinking says yes at 48 they would be, but so many times even at 24 ENS did better than an op run at the same time. I am sure there are stats, science somewhere, always wondered if there was or just a weenie supposition. Well there is a difference between ensembles as well. The SREF is designed to be used in the short term for instance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 It is fixed so why drop them?Who said to drop them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 18z GEFS mean has come way north with 0c 850 isotherm compared to 12z. No shock there. Toss it though... not enough snow for MBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Well there is a difference between ensembles as well. The SREF is designed to be used in the short term for instance.I totally get it just wondered if some geek kept scores. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 This 4 panel lays it out nicely. High probability of at least an inch across northern CT, but if you want to get into the higher totals you need to go north of there where mixing is less of an issue. Tells you right away that the SREF mean is supporting the 18z GFS evolution. What are your thoughts for SW ME at this point? Seems like we've gone pretty quickly from being high and dry to in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 18z GEFS mean has come way north with 0c 850 isotherm compared to 12z. No shock there. Toss it though... not enough snow for MBY.Time to drop the coarse GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 What's the cutoff, are less accurate at 60.72 or 48? I mean intuitive thinking says yes at 48 they would be, but so many times even at 24 ENS did better than an op run at the same time. I am sure there are stats, science somewhere, always wondered if there was or just a weenie supposition.I think Will would have some stats to back it up, but the resolution of the GEFS is low enough that there's a point where the deterministic op has less error. I still look at the EC ens to some extent though because their res is so high. This isn't some weenie myth though...Scooter practices the same thing too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Well you pretty much nail on head there. A trend is only a trend when it means more snow in the particular persons back yard. I still fully believe this area is too far north for anything other than flurries, however to me the telling thing is how slow it has been for it to cool off up here. 24 hour forecast yesterday at this time had Mansfield summit in the mid teens right now (with snowmaking in progress from top to bottom)... its currently leveled off at 23F at 4,000ft (dropped to 22F and held, now risen to 23F) and its 33F at 1,500ft. Heck I'm still at 35F here in town and its really struggling to fall. Should've seen this coming when the front kept getting pushed back several hours and NW winds at H85 are not nearly as strong as they were supposed to be. It is what it is and maybe it doesn't make a difference, but seeing how the CAA is struggling even compared with 24-36 hour progs, the NW trend isn't that surprising I guess. Still pretty warm out there... overnight lows were supposed to be around 10F two days ago, now its "near 20F". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 This looks really quite solid on any model from the Pike area north into S.VT and S.NH and ORH/BED/BOS. That NE MA area does really well in these quasi-SWFE situations. Nam Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Time to drop the coarse GEFSThe muted torch today was not boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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