Typhoon Tip Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Ugh the GFS sorta sucks down here... a couple inches to sleet and maybe rain or ZR? I'm not sure why Kevin is tossing it... everything has been ticking north since yesterday. The SREF amped members lead the way yesterday so I think it's reasonable to assume the trend will continue. That was thoroughly explained by Forky' a bit ago - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Everyone Is tossing it except tip and Ryan I guess. Just ignore every other set of guidance and ride the lone warmer one lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 This could really go a lot of ways over the next 12-24 hours, so I'm cautious about putting up precise snowfall amounts like some have. Remember how the models have been all over the place with this ever since the end of last week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I'm heading to Maine to ski Thursday night. My guess is they'll have plenty of fresh powder after this one and I'll be refreshed from not having to shovel.Have a great time SR looks like it will be fantastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Everyone Is tossing it except tip and Ryan I guess. Just ignore every other set of guidance and ride the lone warmer one lol i don't think anyone tossed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Ugh the GFS sorta sucks down here... a couple inches to sleet and maybe rain or ZR? I'm not sure why Kevin is tossing it... everything has been ticking north since yesterday. The SREF amped members lead the way yesterday so I think it's reasonable to assume the trend will continue. RGEM is warmer too, there's no doubt about it at 18z. I think Forky will be right, and let's face it for the most part it's a multi-model, multi-run trend to bring it north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Although I will say the trends on the NAM/GFS the last few runs indicate that this trend may continue...could be ugly for coastal plain and even up to KTOL and KORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Everyone Is tossing it except tip and Ryan I guess. Just ignore every other set of guidance and ride the lone warmer one lol I'm not saying it's right but it's foolish to toss every model run that doesn't jackpot you for snow. It's possible the whole thing comes farther north and warms us up a bit too much. At this point it seems to be in the realm of possibility. And... FYI... you're love-child computer model (the RPM) has like 2.3" for you before changing you over to not sleet or freezing rain... but plain rain lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 somebody may end up with a nice event out of this relatively speaking. MPM or Hubbdave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Have a great time SR looks like it will be fantastic. Thanks, I was surprised to see they dropped about 30 trails today down to 98. Hopefully they build that back up but the trails I care about will be fine anyway. Plus I'm thinking they get another 1/2 a foot minimum by the weekend. Going early to ski Fri-Sat-Sun before ball freezing weather. I'm thinking Loon, Sunday River etc see at least 3-6 out of this event, maybe more Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 somebody may end up with a nice event out of this relatively speaking. MPM or Hubbdave?The -8C isotherm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I'm not saying it's right but it's foolish to toss every model run that doesn't jackpot you for snow. It's possible the whole thing comes farther north and warms us up a bit too much. At this point it seems to be in the realm of possibility. And... FYI... you're love-child computer model (the RPM) has like 2.3" for you before changing you over to not sleet or freezing rain... but plain rain lol. Nuh - uh ...stop lyin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 i don't think anyone tossed it.Why wouldn't you when nothing else resembled it ? Even it's own ensembles, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 No model support for much ZR if any at all. Looks like a mainly snow, sleet and rain deal IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I think Ryan was a bray reporter today and hasn't fully looked at everything. I have t o believe that was the case when he made that post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Why wouldn't you when nothing else resembled it ? Even it's own ensembles,18z ens aren't even out yet...the op isn't even done running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 FYI: A very helpful tools to take a quick glance at what the model trends have been: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/mdd/mddoutput/ There's an East Coast window to choose as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Why wouldn't you when nothing else resembled it ? Even it's own ensembles, It would help if you actually looked at the models you were commenting on. Several of the GEFS members were as mild or milder than the 12z op run. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_12z/ensprsloopmref.html I think many of us are reasonably concerned if the trend north continues we'll start flirting with danger. A lot of times when these things start coming north on the models there's no stopping them. As you like to say... meteorology not modelology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I think Ryan was a bray reporter today and hasn't fully looked at everything. I have t o believe that was the case when he made that post Which post? And correct I'm just looking at stuff now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 18z ens aren't even out yet...the op isn't even done running.I know that. 12z was snow to the coast on the mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Which post? And correct I'm just looking at stuff now.Yeah figured you hadn't fully absorbed the full suite yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Yeah figured you hadn't fully absorbed the full suite yet Yeah 12z Euro is good... the GFS is concerning for the I-84 corridor. Not sure what else there is to say when the north trend clearly hasn't ceased. Some of the higher res models and the SREF members are pretty mild. Not sure why you're tossing things just because they don't give you more than 2 or 3 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I know that. 12z was snow to the coast on the meanIt may be time to drop the more coarse GEFS at this time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Yeah 12z Euro is good... the GFS is concerning for the I-84 corridor. Not sure what else there is to say when the north trend clearly hasn't ceased. Some of the higher res models and the SREF members are pretty mild. Not sure why you're tossing things just because they don't give you more than 2 or 3 inches of snow. if the Gefs are warm like op then I will un toss but if op is warm outlier we toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Yesterday the same folks who were saying nary a flake are now on the over amp page. Meterology not modeology I think not. Suffice to say the Ens smooth the bumps and are pretty much in agreement. Not saying what is right but the posters most of whom claim they do not, swing like Tarzan from a tree run to run. If 0 Z trends south then they willl reverse their posts. If I had to forecast for a living, snow possible mixing with sleet and changing to rain from SWCT to a line running south of BDL to Boston. Highest accumulations away from the coast 3-6 is possible away from the coast. Inland north of this line all snow with 4-6 with lesser amounts North of Springfield and Worcester. Then like a typical wxman add the caveat and caution flag, could be more and could be less. Then all you would hear at the water cooler tomorrow would be, Ginxy said snow tomorrow as much as six inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 if the Gefs are warm like op then I will un toss but if op is warm outlier we toss Some of the 12z ensemble members were amped and warm so I wouldn't say the operational was an outlier but definitely on the warm side of the envelope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Thanks, I was surprised to see they dropped about 30 trails today down to 98. Hopefully they build that back up but the trails I care about will be fine anyway. Plus I'm thinking they get another 1/2 a foot minimum by the weekend. Going early to ski Fri-Sat-Sun before ball freezing weather. I'm thinking Loon, Sunday River etc see at least 3-6 out of this event, maybe more Wednesday. Glades, not anything we ski anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 It may be time to drop the more coarse GEFS at this time range. that could be a new weenie phrase, I like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 It may be time to drop the more coarse GEFS at this time range. that could be a new weenie phrase, I like it. It's true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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