Bostonseminole Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 BOX tossed GFS as anyone in right mind should you already tossed the NAM.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 BOX leaning toward NAM/EC profiles, but not discounting the GFS. They suggest mixing south of the pike. And then for the bottom line..............drum roll....................... WE DO THINK MOST OF SNE WILL SEE AN INCH OR 2 OF SNOW EXCEPT FOR THE ISLANDS...BUT WITHIN THIS AREA THERE MAY BE A W-E AXIS WITH SNOW ACCUM UP TO 4". BASED ON THERMAL PROFILE AND LOCATION OF LOW LEVEL FGEN THIS AXIS MAY END UP AROUND THE MASS PIKE...BUT AXIS COULD STILL END UP FURTHER N OR S. Bye-bye 40's. 39.0/27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 18z GFS is almost a SWFE rather than a weaker overrunning wave. Ithas very impressive omega in the WAA ahead of the warm punch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Big hit Jerry, Big Hit man GFS is a torch lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCloser24 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 From Upton NWS: WITH THE POTENTIAL PLAYERS FOR THIS EVENT STILL AS FAR AWAY ASALASKA...THERE IS OF COURSE STILL UNCERTAINTY ON THE FCSTDETAILS. IF THE COLDER ECMWF SOLUTION COMES CLOSER TO REALITY...PRECIP TYPE INLAND COULD END UP MOSTLY SNOW WITH GREATER AMTS...POSSIBLY A STRIPE OF 6-INCH AMTS. WILL MENTION THIS POTENTIAL INTHE HWO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 wow way north, Title for the thread was perfect. This might end up giving Powderfreak 6 inches of the trends continue, nice hit for NH and Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 man GFS is a torch lol For some it is..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 We toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 This went from snowshowers on the south coast to a full fledged SWFE in 24 hours.......congrats up north guys! Scooter ginx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Likes like a nice front end dump for us snow starved knaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 This went from snowshowers on the south coast to a full fledged SWFE in 24 hours.......congrats up north guys! Scooter ginx On the GFS it did, but it really has minimal support right now for something that amped. GFS would actually give Scooter a pretty big thump of snow...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 On the GFS it did, but it really has minimal support right now for something that amped. GFS would actually give Scooter a pretty big thump of snow...lol. Referring to this coming north, he was joking around last week I think. Enjoy the snow guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 On the GFS it did, but it really has minimal support right now for something that amped. GFS would actually give Scooter a pretty big thump of snow...lol. Well it must be wrong then.....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Why when the Euro and euro ens are both cold are folks giving any credence to GFS? Never ever will understand it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 On the GFS it did, but it really has minimal support right now for something that amped. GFS would actually give Scooter a pretty big thump of snow...lol. it really is basically a SWFE look there. would potentially be more in NE MA/BOS area than KTOL on that evolution the way the mid-levels warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 What a weenie run up here. Looks like one of those amped up SREF members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 it really is basically a SWFE look there. would potentially be more in NE MA/BOS area than KTOL on that evolution the way the mid-levels warm. Yeah there's like a 4-6 hour paste bomb looking at the soundings and omega. I think its probably overdone/over-amped, but it actually might be better for trying to get more snow out of it for that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Why when the Euro and euro ens are both cold are folks giving any credence to GFS? Never ever will understand it Specifically because it is the lesser snow run as it applies to Kevin - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 i'd rather be ray than kevin in this event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 18z GFS came NW of 12z Why when the Euro and euro ens are both cold are folks giving any credence to GFS? Never ever will understand it Because it's doubling down and continuing the northern push--a push the EC has also done during the past day. That it's continuing to do so is suggestive of further movement. To that extent? Who knows. But I don't think you can just toss it. in fact, BOX did not toss it's 12z run. If my comment above has any merit, I think they were wise not to. WE ARE TRENDING TOWARD THE COLDER SOLUTION BUT ALSO BLENDING IN THE GFS AS IT CANT BE COMPLETELY DISCOUNTED AS THE EVENT IS STILL 48 HOURS AWAY. it really is basically a SWFE look there. would potentially be more in NE MA/BOS area than KTOL on that evolution the way the mid-levels warm. We know how those can play.....things of beauty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 How far north can this trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Because it's doubling down and continuing the northern push--a push the EC has also done during the past day. That it's continuing to do so is suggestive of further movement. To that extent? Who knows. But I don't think you can just toss it. in fact, BOX did not toss it's 12z run. If my comment above has any merit, I think they were wise not to. WE ARE TRENDING TOWARD THE COLDER SOLUTION BUT ALSO BLENDING IN THE GFS AS IT CANT BE COMPLETELY DISCOUNTED AS THE EVENT IS STILL 48 HOURS AWAY. We know how those can play.....things of beauty. This run would fill your qpf fetish appetite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 i'd rather be ray than kevin in this event That's why Kevin is tossing this run - perfectly sensible recourse in keeping with theoretical Meteorological forecast philosophy ... agreed - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 That's why Kevin is tossing this run - perfectly sensible recourse in keeping with theoretical Meteorological forecast philosophy ... agreed -The Gfs as most mets have said Is over amped and no support. Sorry if you got emotionally invested in this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 the gfs was better than the euro with 12/29. i remember people hoping for the euro to come NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 How far north can this trend? I'm heading to Maine to ski Thursday night. My guess is they'll have plenty of fresh powder after this one and I'll be refreshed from not having to shovel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 It's pretty clear what the GFS is doing... There is an intense baroclinic wall setting of SW to NE along the interior lower App/lower MA regions... That region separates fresh cP air from higher Gulf PWAT air along a tight thickness packing along that axis.. That is sooo flappin' volatile it really doesn't take but a slight impetus to pull that PWAT air up such a steep frontal slope, and you get a very efficient QPF producer because more upright frontal slopes associated with steeper gradient means the parcels turn upward proficiently along the baroclinic axis. Yeah ... it could be right, despite the lack of support, and my own chagrin for seeing this thing thread a needle so finely. By the way, there's 0 wiggle room on this thing - although, this GFS run is intense enough to maybe give 3 wiggle rooms because of size. But the blend overall doesn't allow for much dinking around here - this edges any SE, you get cirrus shrouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Curtains for me on GFS, any further NW and we can activate the Lake Placid weather mentality -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Ugh the GFS sorta sucks down here... a couple inches to sleet and maybe rain or ZR? I'm not sure why Kevin is tossing it... everything has been ticking north since yesterday. The SREF amped members lead the way yesterday so I think it's reasonable to assume the trend will continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 New RPM is horrible for the CP. Zilch for BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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