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Snow Event 1/15-1/16


Mr Torchey

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Actually the -4 850 line on the Euro is exactly in the same position on the Euro 0Z-12z, just more expansive lift, better dynamics, better inflow, its warmer out in the ocean indicating good Atlantic inflow. Looks great, fantastic way to start a fantastic winter pattern. Man I would plan a trip to SoCal if I was a winter cold hater.

 

Steve maybe there's a difference in the maps so here's Unisys.  The 0c line is clearly north as Forky and others noted.  Here's the 48 and 54 hour panel, every -2 line is further north, maybe the -4 is only a smidge, -6 north too which all makes sense as the precip is further north.  It's a frontal wave, I don't think we're going to see the precip into NNE next run and have the 0c etc drop south at the same time. JMHO.

 

It matters down here and along the coast, the -4 line I'm not sure is all that relevant as it's cold enough aloft regardless, surface temps are the problem.

 

Left is 48, 12/0 compared, right is 54.  Animations still aren't working :(  Small changes but for those of us in the borderline regions, it was meaningful particularly 48 hours out and after several runs bumping north in a row.

post-3232-0-26305600-1358188843_thumb.jp

post-3232-0-57601100-1358189071_thumb.jp

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LOL...Tip you always come up with a way to post about a massive Archie event could come out of an awful pattern, but then go posting stuff like this when it looks like slam dunk snow.

 

eh, i get a kick out of that sort of irony  -  it's kinda like that Dec 29 storm, where it was pulling teeth to almost imagine that come far enough NW to clip the southeastern areas let alone the Cape and Island, in every shrinking intervals leading up ... people, throwing flame...  finally, what happens, it rains in SE zones. 

 

it's funny to me.    

 

for the record, i don't see that it will rain from this though.  

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Steve maybe there's a difference in the maps so here's Unisys.  The 0c line is clearly north as Forky and others noted.  Here's the 48 and 54 hour panel, every -2 line is further north, maybe the -4 is only a smidge, -6 north too which all makes sense as the precip is further north.  It's a frontal wave, I don't think we're going to see the precip into NNE next run and have the 0c etc drop south at the same time. JMHO.

 

It matters down here and along the coast, the -4 line I'm not sure is all that relevant as it's cold enough aloft regardless, surface temps are the problem.

 

Left is 48, 12/0 compared, right is 54.  Animations still aren't working :(  Small changes but for those of us in the borderline regions, it was meaningful particularly 48 hours out and after several runs bumping north in a row.

see my map where it matters, 150 miles, cmon

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not ^this, 12 Z 48 hours at max dynamics

precip expanded no way did the Euro shift North 150 miles with its thermal profile

attachicon.gif48.JPG

 

0z last night at max dynamics

attachicon.gif60.JPG

 

The 0c 12 hours ago was well south of LI and ACK, this run it's kissing or over both.  That's not 150 miles, but it moved 50ish. 

 

The 2m temps (0c) also shifted NW, particularly over eastern areas quite a bit versus the 0z Euro. 

 

Meaningless viewed alone, but part of a 3-4 run trend north, it's probably going to be significant, again JMHO.

 

I'm not taking away your snow, this is more for the borderline areas.

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see my map where it matters, 150 miles, cmon

 

Not 150 miles on the temp profiles, no way, maybe 50 tops.

 

And it's still plenty cold at that level.  2m temps are somewhat more problematic as Scott and Phil have talked about in eastern areas/coastal.

 

It's 2 days away.  Sometimes they stop trending, but I expect very little/no snow here. 

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not ^this, 12 Z 48 hours at max dynamics

precip expanded no way did the Euro shift North 150 miles with its thermal profile

attachicon.gif48.JPG

 

0z last night at max dynamics

attachicon.gif60.JPG

 

Sorry, I did not cross check the facts there, but I was more stating my agreement with the point that this may come further north..the patetrn would support it in my opinion...you are probably ok, im thinking rain for me in stamford

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