Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 ^ This not ^this, 12 Z 48 hours at max dynamics precip expanded no way did the Euro shift North 150 miles with its thermal profile 0z last night at max dynamics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Again watch for light stuff to break out tonight Anything tonight is garbage. Probably a few spits of light rain. Maybe ending as a few mangled flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Only problem is its January Euro run might bomb that clipper leaving SNE, interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Anything tonight is garbage. Probably a few spits of light rain. Maybe ending as a few mangled flakes. 1-2" in Kev's world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 wouldn't it be funny if after all this it was a 34F light rain event for S of the MA/NH border ? LOL...Tip you always come up with a way to post about a massive Archie event could come out of an awful pattern, but then go posting stuff like this when it looks like slam dunk snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Actually the -4 850 line on the Euro is exactly in the same position on the Euro 0Z-12z, just more expansive lift, better dynamics, better inflow, its warmer out in the ocean indicating good Atlantic inflow. Looks great, fantastic way to start a fantastic winter pattern. Man I would plan a trip to SoCal if I was a winter cold hater. Steve maybe there's a difference in the maps so here's Unisys. The 0c line is clearly north as Forky and others noted. Here's the 48 and 54 hour panel, every -2 line is further north, maybe the -4 is only a smidge, -6 north too which all makes sense as the precip is further north. It's a frontal wave, I don't think we're going to see the precip into NNE next run and have the 0c etc drop south at the same time. JMHO. It matters down here and along the coast, the -4 line I'm not sure is all that relevant as it's cold enough aloft regardless, surface temps are the problem. Left is 48, 12/0 compared, right is 54. Animations still aren't working Small changes but for those of us in the borderline regions, it was meaningful particularly 48 hours out and after several runs bumping north in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 euro still unleash the hounds, sorry out in the field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 LOL...Tip you always come up with a way to post about a massive Archie event could come out of an awful pattern, but then go posting stuff like this when it looks like slam dunk snow. eh, i get a kick out of that sort of irony - it's kinda like that Dec 29 storm, where it was pulling teeth to almost imagine that come far enough NW to clip the southeastern areas let alone the Cape and Island, in every shrinking intervals leading up ... people, throwing flame... finally, what happens, it rains in SE zones. it's funny to me. for the record, i don't see that it will rain from this though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Steve maybe there's a difference in the maps so here's Unisys. The 0c line is clearly north as Forky and others noted. Here's the 48 and 54 hour panel, every -2 line is further north, maybe the -4 is only a smidge, -6 north too which all makes sense as the precip is further north. It's a frontal wave, I don't think we're going to see the precip into NNE next run and have the 0c etc drop south at the same time. JMHO. It matters down here and along the coast, the -4 line I'm not sure is all that relevant as it's cold enough aloft regardless, surface temps are the problem. Left is 48, 12/0 compared, right is 54. Animations still aren't working Small changes but for those of us in the borderline regions, it was meaningful particularly 48 hours out and after several runs bumping north in a row. see my map where it matters, 150 miles, cmon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 not ^this, 12 Z 48 hours at max dynamics precip expanded no way did the Euro shift North 150 miles with its thermal profile 48.JPG 0z last night at max dynamics 60.JPG The 0c 12 hours ago was well south of LI and ACK, this run it's kissing or over both. That's not 150 miles, but it moved 50ish. The 2m temps (0c) also shifted NW, particularly over eastern areas quite a bit versus the 0z Euro. Meaningless viewed alone, but part of a 3-4 run trend north, it's probably going to be significant, again JMHO. I'm not taking away your snow, this is more for the borderline areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 see my map where it matters, 150 miles, cmon Not 150 miles on the temp profiles, no way, maybe 50 tops. And it's still plenty cold at that level. 2m temps are somewhat more problematic as Scott and Phil have talked about in eastern areas/coastal. It's 2 days away. Sometimes they stop trending, but I expect very little/no snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I'm not taking away your snow LOl geezus dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 the NW extent of precip definitely shifted 150 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 not ^this, 12 Z 48 hours at max dynamics precip expanded no way did the Euro shift North 150 miles with its thermal profile 48.JPG 0z last night at max dynamics 60.JPG Sorry, I did not cross check the facts there, but I was more stating my agreement with the point that this may come further north..the patetrn would support it in my opinion...you are probably ok, im thinking rain for me in stamford Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Ocean temps are 7* degrees cooler in Boston harbor I believe since the last fail along the coastline. (47---40) Hopefully that makes a difference in a marginal setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 the NW extent of precip definitely shifted 150 miles Need more extension..... 45.0/31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Looks like a bit over .3" here 12z vs. about .1" on the 0z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 euro actually pumps out a solid .3-.35 as a wet snow even at HYA. not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Looks like a bit over .3" here 12z vs. about .1" on the 0z Euro How's the EC for GC? Looks like we're in the same boat on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Euro and GFS are quite different at 850 overhead and it's not just because the GFS is north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Yawn... enjoy it if it falls anywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 So the EURO looks like snow for all but extreme coastal CT? NYC is rain on EURO correct? -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 So the EURO looks like snow for all but extreme coastal CT? NYC is rain on EURO correct? -skisheep Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Yes Thanks, hopefully ticks south in later runs and we see some snow in stamford! (It's about time for some.......) -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Scott has me scared as hell from the last event regarding coastal front... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 15z SREFs look pretty good for SNE....even for Scooter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Pretty sizable shift N on the 15z SREFs with QPF field vs 09z. 0.5" line now all the way up to CT/MA/RI border. 0.25" line all the way up to CNE now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Thanks, hopefully ticks south in later runs and we see some snow in stamford! (It's about time for some.......) -skisheep Euro is probably 90% snow for you. Nam at 12z was good for you also. Gfs has the pretty warm solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Damn....sref snow progs >70% to the coast including g Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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