NorEastermass128 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 wouldn't it be funny if after all this it was a 34F light rain event for S of the MA/NH border ? No...that wouldn't be funny at all. Crazier things have happened though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Nice shift up here, 0z had virtually nothing euro looks to be close to .25" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 euro is awfully close even for the coast. i like seeing the model hold the 2-m temps in the 30s. generally a good sign that most of the boundary layer is borderline and not a big thick melting layer. It's cold, but is it far enough north? Normally the roles are reversed with the euro and GFS. I think I'll see snow...just a matter of how long it lasts. Euro is all snow, but I don't know if I buy it here locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 1-3".. it will have a hard time accumulating I believe. I agree. We won't see 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 i have to think the low levels will be a smidge too warm here for this to stay frozen. but euro is definitely a lot nicer for Bob and Scooter and pts N and W Yeah, I'm still in agreement with you from my area to you. I think maybe back west of Rte 3 up along and through exit 7 or so is fine, Bob, Kev, Jerry are all safe, Scott may have worries about the CF...I think that can be overcome if the models are right easily enough for him. We'll see, it's still 2 days away and the Euro did in fact creep north with both precip and the 0c 8h line versus the last run. Something to watch. 59.4 here now, heading out to enjoy lunch in the sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Yeah Euro! Would be great to get advisory snows here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 euro is legit plowable snow for KTOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 For you coastal folks this is coming in perfect timing wise for you. Comes in after dark and us over by morning. I don't think you should worry. I think 4-6 inland with lollis to 8. I think 2-5 from LL to Phil to Scooter to Gerald only due to lower ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Well pretty much all guidance has near or actual advisory amounts here in the interior....NAM is a bit light for that, but it was also the furthest south. Starting to gain some confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 It's cold, but is it far enough north? Normally the roles are reversed with the euro and GFS. I think I'll see snow...just a matter of how long it lasts. Euro is all snow, but I don't know if I buy it here locally. these events usually don't stop coming north... this euro run shifted a good 150 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Euro is even 1-2" up here. Let's keep bumping this north. Yes, Lets do that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 It's cold, but is it far enough north? Normally the roles are reversed with the euro and GFS. I think I'll see snow...just a matter of how long it lasts. Euro is all snow, but I don't know if I buy it here locally. euro is good as it keeps the surface wave weak and south. the GFS actually dipped to like 1000mb in the gulf of maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Reminds me of the Saturday before the April '97 event out there. The feel of the air, the smell of it, even the sound as the wind hisses through vacated trees. It was 63F for a high that day up at college, 2 days before 1-3' of snow occurred. obviously there is 0 analogical value, but just the idea of it being in the low 60s, and knowing we could have a plowable event 2 days later - fascinating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 maybe close to dinnertime or just after for you...done by morning really. huh? Euro has no precip in before 45hr on Wunderground...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Steve the sweat from your two day torch must be getting into your eyes Kidding aside, the Euro is warmer every panel from 24 to 54 at 8h vs the 0z run in SE areas/along the 0c line, but is similar to the GEFS in keeping it cold enough. Its all good and man is it torched right now, the banana hammock is even hot. 58/53. thankfully next time I see that is after March 25th. Euro looks fantastic much similar to GEFS mean only wetter. Advisory level Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 these events usually don't stop coming north... this euro run shifted a good 150 miles Dec 29th did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Rolling down my window for Kevin right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Rolling down my window for Kevin right now. Check out my recent obs in the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 huh? Euro has no precip in before 45hr on Wunderground...? For LL, it has almost 0.10" by 06z...so it would probably start just after dinner time down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Rolling down my window for Kevin right now. I drove home with all the windows down. 58F. Complete torch, felt nice after the gym. Almost made me want it to last. Almost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Rolling down my window for Kevin right now.But you're malnourished and hairless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Actually the -4 850 line on the Euro is exactly in the same position on the Euro 0Z-12z, just more expansive lift, better dynamics, better inflow, its warmer out in the ocean indicating good Atlantic inflow. Looks great, fantastic way to start a fantastic winter pattern. Man I would plan a trip to SoCal if I was a winter cold hater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 For LL, it has almost 0.10" by 06z...so it would probably start just after dinner time down there. Oh hmm, my bad. It seems like maybe a midnight to 9am event here then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 these events usually don't stop coming north... this euro run shifted a good 150 miles ^ This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Oh hmm, my bad. It seems like maybe a midnight to 9am event here then.It will be ending around dawn there. Quick hard hitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 wow does this run roll that cold outta here with a rapidity! 120 had +2C at 850 near ORH, with a west wind - in May that would be like 70F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 It will be ending around dawn there. Quick hard hitter Maybe it speeds up on future runs...but EURO has it snowing through about 10-11am this run. But you may be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 The Euro looks like a 12-15hr period of light precip, between .25 and .5 or so in total. It's the sort of modeled event that would be beautiful with temps in the teens or low 20s. But in a marginal airmass without heavier rates, I'm skeptical that this is anything more than a minor event. I'd really want some elevation to give whatever snow falls a chance to accumulate. But it was a much nicer Euro run than the previous, and there is support for a plowable snowfall. I also think this is the sort of scenario where QPF can be undermodeled, especially in a relatively narrow band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 wow does this run roll that cold outta here with a rapidity! 120 had +2C at 850 near ORH, with a west wind - in May that would be like 70FOnly problem is its January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Again watch for light stuff to break out tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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