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Snow Event 1/15-1/16


Mr Torchey

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euro is awfully close even for the coast. i like seeing the model hold the 2-m temps in the 30s. generally a good sign that most of the boundary layer is borderline and not a big thick melting layer. 

 

It's cold, but is it far enough north? Normally the roles are reversed with the euro and GFS. I think I'll see snow...just a matter of how long it lasts. Euro is all snow, but I don't know if I buy it here locally.

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i have to think the low levels will be a smidge too warm here for this to stay frozen. but euro is definitely a lot nicer for Bob and Scooter and pts N and W

 

Yeah, I'm still in agreement with you from my area to you.  I think maybe back west of Rte 3 up along and through exit 7 or so is fine, Bob, Kev, Jerry are all safe, Scott may have worries about the CF...I think that can be overcome if the models are right easily enough for him.

 

We'll see, it's still 2 days away and the Euro did in fact creep north with both precip and the 0c 8h line versus the last run.  Something to watch.

 

59.4 here now, heading out to enjoy lunch in the sun.

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It's cold, but is it far enough north? Normally the roles are reversed with the euro and GFS. I think I'll see snow...just a matter of how long it lasts. Euro is all snow, but I don't know if I buy it here locally.

 

these events usually don't stop coming north... this euro run shifted a good 150 miles

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It's cold, but is it far enough north? Normally the roles are reversed with the euro and GFS. I think I'll see snow...just a matter of how long it lasts. Euro is all snow, but I don't know if I buy it here locally.

euro is good as it keeps the surface wave weak and south. the GFS actually dipped to like 1000mb in the gulf of maine. 

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Reminds me of the Saturday before the April '97 event out there.   The feel of the air, the smell of it, even the sound as the wind hisses through vacated trees.  It was 63F for a high that day up at college, 2 days before 1-3' of snow occurred.  

 

obviously there is 0 analogical value, but just the idea of it being in the low 60s, and knowing we could have a plowable event 2 days later - fascinating.  

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Steve the sweat from your two day torch must be getting into your eyes ;)

 

Kidding aside, the Euro is warmer every panel from 24 to 54 at 8h vs the 0z run in SE areas/along the 0c line, but is similar to the GEFS in keeping it cold enough.

Its all good and man is it torched right now, the banana hammock is even hot. 58/53. thankfully next time I see that is after March 25th. Euro looks fantastic much similar to GEFS mean only wetter. Advisory level

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Actually the -4 850 line on the Euro is exactly in the same position on the Euro 0Z-12z, just more expansive lift, better dynamics, better inflow, its warmer out in the ocean indicating good Atlantic inflow. Looks great, fantastic way to start a fantastic winter pattern. Man I would plan a trip to SoCal if I was a winter cold hater.

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The Euro looks like a 12-15hr period of light precip, between .25 and .5 or so in total.  It's the sort of modeled event that would be beautiful with temps in the teens or low 20s.  But in a marginal airmass without heavier rates, I'm skeptical that this is anything more than a minor event.  I'd really want some elevation to give whatever snow falls a chance to accumulate. 

 

But it was a much nicer Euro run than the previous, and there is support for a plowable snowfall.  I also think this is the sort of scenario where QPF can be undermodeled, especially in a relatively narrow band.

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