Arnold214 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 On 1/15/2013 at 3:44 AM, Cold Front said: Nice, Getting into high end advisory area, 2" snow pack left from the "Mild Up", Going to need to rebuild Yeah, looking like a 3-6" type of event at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 On 1/15/2013 at 3:46 AM, ORH_wxman said: The winds are pretty ugly for the coast on the 00z GFS...hope for more of a Euro/NAM. Scooter is tying a noose in his sleep. The surface reflection is so weak winds are never able to back and we're left with an onshore flow. Verbatim that's probably better for HVN than BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 On 1/15/2013 at 3:51 AM, CT Rain said: Scooter is tying a noose in his sleep. The surface reflection is so weak winds are never able to back and we're left with an onshore flow. Verbatim that's probably better for HVN than BOS Yeah that is another nigthmare scenario for Scooter. Ray probably get 4-5" and he gets a quick coating and flips to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 On 1/15/2013 at 3:46 AM, ORH_wxman said: The winds are pretty ugly for the coast on the 00z GFS...hope for more of a Euro/NAM.. E essex county bl issues will verbatim 0z gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 On 1/15/2013 at 3:52 AM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah that is another nigthmare scenario for Scooter. Ray probably get 4-5" and he gets a quick coating and flips to rain. Ray probably cashes in from some coastal front enhancement too as Scooter jumps off the Tobin. The GFS seems to me to be a weenie band setup on the I-84/495 corridor through SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 00z Ukie has come south as well from 12z by a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I don't understand why my soundings from accupro look great but you guys say I'm tying a noose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Uncle seems like a nice snowstorm. Gfs colder and the initial thump is nice but there is plenty of taint. RGEM also a snowsotrm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 On 1/15/2013 at 3:58 AM, sbos_wx said: I don't understand why my soundings from accupro look great but you guys say I'm tying a noose BOS BL warms pretty good...they start off as snow on the GFs, but probably go to rain after a couple hours. The other guidance looks better for them, so its not like the GFS should be taken hook, line and sinker. NAM/RGEM and the Euro earlier were mostly snow. We'll see what the rest of the 00z suite says. Just checked the Ukie sounding for BOS and its an easy snow sounding...the difference is the snow soundings have very light BL flow...or even slightly northerly flow like the NAM....but the common denominator is no stiff easterly wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Jay I'd say boundary layer is torched Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 On 1/15/2013 at 4:03 AM, ORH_wxman said: BOS BL warms pretty good...they start off as snow on the GFs, but probably go to rain after a couple hours. The other guidance looks better for them, so its not like the GFS should be taken hook, line and sinker. NAM/RGEM and the Euro earlier were mostly snow. We'll see what the rest of the 00z suite says. Just checked the Ukie sounding for BOS and its an easy snow sounding...the difference is the snow soundings have very light BL flow...or even slightly northerly flow like the NAM....but the common denominator is no stiff easterly wind. Here lies my confusion.. 42 with my lat long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 On 1/15/2013 at 3:55 AM, ORH_wxman said: 00z Ukie has come south as well from 12z by a little bit. QPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 So once again it's a matter of avoiding the easterly wind of doom? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 On 1/15/2013 at 4:08 AM, PeabodyFlood said: So once again it's a matter of avoiding the easterly wind of doom? I avoided it on 12/29, but barely. Temp shot up to 32.4F and then came back down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 On 1/15/2013 at 4:06 AM, sbos_wx said: Here lies my confusion.. 42 with my lat long That doesn't look right...something is messed up with the way its making the sounding. Its not even close to saturated. The KBOS sounding looks like this at 42h: edit: I just realized your sounding is from last nights 00z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 On 1/15/2013 at 4:08 AM, PeabodyFlood said: So once again it's a matter of avoiding the easterly wind of doom? it sounds to be much weaker, the front that is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 The main reason the easterly wind is an issue at all is because once again, the mid levels are too close. With -6/7C on 850 you'd probably be able to overcome a stiff east wind much longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 On 1/15/2013 at 4:10 AM, ORH_wxman said: That doesn't look right...something is messed up with the way its making the sounding. Its not even close to saturated. The KBOS sounding looks like this at 42h: edit: I just realized your sounding is from last nights 00z GFS. Yeah I'm no scooter but that Plymouth sounding is a disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 On 1/15/2013 at 4:11 AM, weathafella said: The main reason the easterly wind is an issue at all is because once again, the mid levels are too close. With -6/7C on 850 you'd probably be able to overcome a stiff east wind much longer. Yeah you can get away with easterly BL winds if its colder aloft. You got away with it during 1/12/11....paste bomb because it was so cold just off the deck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 On 1/15/2013 at 4:10 AM, NorEastermass128 said: I avoided it on 12/29, but barely. Temp shot up to 32.4F and then came back down. I avoided it by 1-2 miles. Parts of lynnfield were rain for a bit on 12/29 but melrose highlands to my south stayd all snow as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 On 1/15/2013 at 4:13 AM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah you can get away with easterly BL winds if its colder aloft. You got away with it during 1/12/11....paste bomb because it was so cold just off the deck. Lol...great storm my meltdown notwithstanding. I think our chances for snow improved slightly with the 0Z runs so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 On 1/15/2013 at 4:04 AM, cpick79 said: Jay I'd say boundary layer is torched Its ugliness cannot be denied Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 On 1/15/2013 at 4:14 AM, cpick79 said: I avoided it by 1-2 miles. Parts of lynnfield were rain for a bit on 12/29 but melrose highlands to my south stayd all snow as well. I think we're okay. May flirt with crappy ratio snows for a time, but I'm expecting about 3-4" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 On 1/15/2013 at 4:13 AM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah you can get away with easterly BL winds if its colder aloft. You got away with it during 1/12/11....paste bomb because it was so cold just off the deck. You can actually see the coastal boundary pretty well defined in the GFS 18z Wed despite no real sfc wind above 5-7 kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 On 1/15/2013 at 4:15 AM, NorEastermass128 said: I think we're okay. May flirt with crappy ratio snows for a time, but I'm expecting about 3-4" here. I doubt anyone outside of 128 has to worry about rain unless the MLs get too warm...which looks a bit less likely with the north trend halted for the moment on the 00z suite. Might have to deal with wet snow...but snow nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 On 1/15/2013 at 4:18 AM, Arnold214 said: You can actually see the coastal boundary pretty well defined in the GFS 18z Wed despite no real sfc wind above 5-7 kts. Classic downslope direction for Kevin off the ORH hills. Ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 On 1/15/2013 at 4:18 AM, Arnold214 said: You can actually see the coastal boundary pretty well defined in the GFS 18z Wed despite no real sfc wind above 5-7 kts. That's pretty weird looking....almost like what you would see in a norlun or inverted torugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 On 1/15/2013 at 4:18 AM, ORH_wxman said: I doubt anyone outside of 128 has to worry about rain unless the MLs get too warm...which looks a bit less likely with the north trend halted for the moment on the 00z suite. Might have to deal with wet snow...but snow nonetheless. Yeah...maybe an hour or two of 33.2-33.8F snow that has trouble accumulating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Anyone within 128 should pray to their respective god regarding the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Can I please get a high to the north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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