Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,910
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    WichitaChiefSam
    Newest Member
    WichitaChiefSam
    Joined

Snow Event 1/15-1/16


Mr Torchey

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.6k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
  On 1/14/2013 at 11:20 PM, cpick79 said:

18z GEFS have 0c line from scituate,ma to tolland to 5 miles north of danbury, ct. at 12z wednesday.

 

Yeah pretty substantial bump north. I still use GEFS/Euro ens at this range and I still find it useful to use when model swings are continuing and trends aren't over. Once we get within 24H it's time to ditch the GEFS and do more SREF stuff. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 1/14/2013 at 11:15 PM, PWMan said:

What are your thoughts for SW ME at this point? Seems like we've gone pretty quickly from being high and dry to in the game.

 

Well if in the game means a couple inches possibly then I'm on board. Pretty sure I had the PWM area right around 2" with today's forecast. Looking at the plumes there seems to be a nice cluster around 1.5" and another right around 3.5 to 4". Seems a reasonable range of possibilities at this point.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 1/14/2013 at 11:29 PM, CT Rain said:

Wow the 18z GFS is even warmer than I thought now that I'm looking at the BUFKIT soundings. Ugh. Hideous. Still a tough forecast... probably have to stay conservative for now with a 1-3 kinda deal down here. 

 

Can't believe the 18z GFS today vs. yesterday...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 1/14/2013 at 11:35 PM, CT Blizz said:

just ignore the Euro/ Rgem/ euro ens/ srefs mean/GGEM/ Gefs and Nogaps. Just base everything off GFS because its warm and typically always right

 

We get it. You're tossing all the warm models and dry models and just going with cold and wet. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 1/14/2013 at 11:28 PM, cpick79 said:

one of BOS best mets   "tweets" around noon.

 

Odds of snow on Wednesday are increasing, with some mixing possible coast & from Boston south...more later today

Harvey? Go verbatim with his idea. If I had gun to head I'd say 1 inch front end and then rain. Going whole hog with GFS as I believe they are onto it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 1/14/2013 at 11:35 PM, CT Blizz said:

Can't believe the 18z GFS today vs. yesterday...just ignore the Euro/ Rgem/ euro ens/ srefs mean/GGEM/ Gefs and Nogaps. Just base everything off GFS because its warm and typically always right

go with what's hot, GFS has been, if its start trending colder that would be good.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 1/14/2013 at 11:46 PM, CT Blizz said:

No, I allowed the Gefs in. It gets mixing to s coast blended in. I only tossed 1 outlier model

the 18z gefs have 0c line on your fanny (exactly) at 12z wednesday.  others are colder.  

 

so ML temps are an issue to watch (potentially( in Ct/Ri/interior Se mass) and BL temps seems to be a potential issue right along the coast (esp. bos south) perhaps n. shore to but i have no idea.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 1/14/2013 at 11:47 PM, cpick79 said:

a earlier poster said bos harbor bouy was 7 degrees cooler than the last event dec 29.  NO, not so much.

 

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44013   45.3 .  Hope the east wind is non existant

I wondered about that ny harbor has actually gone up but that is not surprising its been 11 days since they have been below freezing, will probably end up being 15 days straight without a freezing temp at central park lol.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 1/14/2013 at 11:47 PM, cpick79 said:

a earlier poster said bos harbor bouy was 7 degrees cooler than the last event dec 29. NO, not so much.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44013 45.3 . Hope the east wind is non existant

Yeah my bad. The site I saw was incorrect.

Probably a quick 1/2 inch to rain here based on gfs

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 1/14/2013 at 11:56 PM, BostonWX said:

Yeah my bad. The site I saw was incorrect.

Probably a quick 1/2 inch to rain here based on gfs

well who knows, I would think that the last storm being more a LP area moving thru had deeper SE/E flow ahead of it , if this is acting more like a SWFE, i think the CF will be weaker? and barely existant? perhaps E of 95 in essex county then to like along Route 1 down to maybe scott.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...