January trends in Toronto, Ontario

[Ottawa Blizzard]

It's taken me awhile, but, using the Environment Canada data, I went through every January in Toronto back to 1870 and discovered some interesting trends.

 

Most notably, it would appear that January in the first two decades of the 20th century in Toronto were rather mild in Toronto. Here is the data, with the year on the left, and the mean temperature in degrees celcius on the right:

 

January 1900: -3.4C

1901: -4.7C

1902: -4.8C

1903: -5.0C

1904: -8.9C

1905: -7.8C

1906 -0.6C

1907: -5.5C

1908: -4.3C

1909: -3.2C

 

1910: -3.6C

1911: -3.4C

1912: -10.1C

1913: -0.3C

1914: -3.6C

1915: -4.6C

1916: -1.0C

1917: -5.2C

1918: -10.5C

1919: -1.5C

 

Now look at the last three decades. It should be noted that the above were recorded in downtown Toronto, while the ones below were recorded at Toronto Pearson airport.

 

1980: -5.1C

1981: -10.2C

1982: -10.1C

1983: -4.1C

1984: -9.7C

1985: -8.4C

1986: -5.6C

1987: -4.6C

1988: -4.5C

1989: -2.2C

 

1990: -0.8C

1991: -5.7C

1992: -4.2C

1993: -3.9C

1994: -12.4C

1995: -3.1C

1996: -6.7C

1997: -6.4C

1998: -2.2C

1999: -6.2C

 

2000: -5.8C

2001: -4.1C

2002: -0.5C

2003: -8.3C

2004: -9.4C

2005: -6.8C

2006: 0.2C

2007: -2.9C

2008:-2.1C

2009: -8.8C

 

2010: -5.2C

2011: -7.0C

2012: -1.7C

 

Note how in the first decade of the 20th century,the only exceptionally cold January was 1904. The others were roughly the same as the Januaries of the 1990s, with January 1906 being just as much of a torch as January 1990. So much for our great-grandparents facing bitter cold winters the likes of which we have never seen. Now look at how mild most of the Januaries of the 1910s were. Many of them were virtual blowtorches, including January 1913, 1914, 1916 and 1919. Only January 1912 and 1918 were frigid.

 

Now look at the late 20th/early 21st century. The Januarys of the 1980s were almost colder than those of the 1900s, with January 1981 and 1982 easily surpassing all of them. As for the 1990s, note how 1994 stands out like a sore thumb. It is the coldest January ever recorded at Toronto Pearson airport and - get this- the coldest January recorded in Toronto since at least 1870!!

 

Finally, look at how in the first decade of this century, the Januaries have slowly trending colder, despite the torches of 2002 and 2006. 2003-2005 saw three cold Januaries in a row, easily the equal of those in the first decade of the 20th century. This decade started out decently cold, with only last January being a torch.

 

All-in-all, it would appear that the Januaries of today are not significantly warmer than those of our grandparents and great-grandparents. I read in a book on Toronto once that "anyone older than 50 can remember a time when the harbour froze regularly and people could skate to the Toronto Islands". Judging from what I've seen in the data (and I've only included a fraction of it in this post) I can't see how it is possible that the harbour regularly froze. If anything, the Januaries of the first two decades of the twentieth century were milder than what we've been experiencing. Granted, one does have to take into effect the different recording stations, with the early twentieth century readings being taken in a downtown location as opposed to the airport.

 

[bluewave]

Great Post. Your findings match fairly closely our experience here in the Northeast U.S.

January has shown the least amount of warming for the winter months since the 1890's.

But February and December have seen steady increases in average temperature. Our 

strong February and December Arctic outbreaks have been becoming fewer in number

over the years. As recently as January 2009, Maine was able to set a new record low

temperature.

 

Northeast monthly temperature trends since 1895:

 

December... +0.23 degF/Decade

January.......+0.01 degF/Decade

February .....+0.35 degF/Decade

[Ottawa Blizzard]

The news anchor at CBC Toronto said she was worried about this weather as it "didn't seem natural". Yet, January 1950 saw the temperature climb to 16.7C on January 25.

January 1932 saw Toronto climb over 13C two days in a row in the mildest January on record.

http://www.climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca/cli...932&Day=-11

January 1916 saw Toronto climb to close to 12C on four occasions.

http://www.climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca/cli...916&Day=-11

The end of January 1914 was very mild in Toronto

http://www.climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca/cli...914&Day=-11

Going way back to Victorian times, take a look at how warm and snowless January 1880 was in Toronto. Interestingly, the temperature climbed to 12C on January 11th.

http://www.climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca/cli...914&Day=-11

Want a really mild and snowless January? Take a look at January 1876 in Toronto. The temperature climbed to 14 degrees on New Years Day and the month saw only 8.3cm of snow fall!

http://www.climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca/cli...876&Day=-11


 
 

[blizzard1024]

There is tremendous year to year variability in the winter in the northeast U.S an southeast Canada. 

Even with some warming, we can still see cold and snowy winters.  Many people seem to remember the

coldest of the cold winters and the hottest of the hot summers and somehow think they are "normal". 

[bluewave]

There is tremendous year to year variability in the winter in the northeast U.S an southeast Canada. 

Even with some warming, we can still see cold and snowy winters.  Many people seem to remember the

coldest of the cold winters and the hottest of the hot summers and somehow think they are "normal". 

 

There is variability, but the warming trend is undeniable most months of the year. January happens to be one

of the winter months which has seen the slowest increase compared to February and December in the NE.

 

For example, the last NYC record daily low temperature  for January was set back in 2004 which is

in line with this trend. Conversely NYC hasn't seen a record low in February since 1990 and December

in 1988.

 

Warming rates vary over month and geographic location, but the net gain in temperature averaged

out is very clear.

[Jonger]

I actually show LESS warming in December...  I used the 100 year, which I hate doing... This pulls UHI into the equation. 

 

[bluewave]

I actually show LESS warming in December...  I used the 100 year, which I hate doing... This pulls UHI into the equation. 

 

temps.jpg

 

The less warming that you are seeing in December is over the SE Region is a result of the warming hole there.

The difference in warming between January and the other winter months over the long term isn't a result

of UHI. Rural as well as urban Northeast  sites show less January warming VS December and February.

 

Burlington, VT

 

December...+ .32deg/F Decade

January........+.08deg/F Decade

February.......+.39deg/F Decade

 

 

http://www2.ucar.edu/for-staff/daily/calendar/2011-04-19/lack-late-20th-century-warming-southeastern-us-warming-hole-and-

[Jonger]

I actually show LESS warming in December...  I used the 100 year, which I hate doing... This pulls UHI into the equation. 

 

temps.jpg

 

The less warming that you are seeing in December is over the SE Region is a result of the warming hole there.

The difference in warming between January and the other winter months over the long term isn't a result

of UHI. Rural as well as urban Northeast  sites show less January warming VS December and February.

 

Burlington, VT

 

December...+ .32deg/F Decade

January........+.08deg/F Decade

February.......+.39deg/F Decade

 

 

http://www2.ucar.edu/for-staff/daily/calendar/2011-04-19/lack-late-20th-century-warming-southeastern-us-warming-hole-and-

Right... warming hole.

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah for the state of MA, January has seen no trend with some huge torch Januarys early in the 20th century.