MJO Phase For Lowest Annual NYC Temperature & Greatest Snowstorms

[bluewave]

I wanted to be able to use the MJO as a tool in determining which phases are the most common

when NYC experiences their lowest annual temperature. The topic of MJO phase comes up 

quite frequently in threads associated with which phases are best for NYC cold. It can be a

bit confusing at times sifting through all the data and what it may mean for our temperatures.

I identified the coldest annual temperatures in NYC since 1975 and where they fell on the

MJO phase diagram. I used the first letter to show the month of the coldest annual temperature

with the signal strength and phase on the date of the low.

 

COD

 

J...2012

J...2005

J...2003

F...2002

J...2000

J...1999

J...1997

F...1995

J...1994

J....1988

F....1987

J....1982

D....1980

J.....1977

 

WEAK

 

J...2007..W6

J...2006..W1

J...1998..W6

F...1996..W4

J....1991..W4

D...1983..W2

 

PHASE 8

 

J...2011

J...2009

J...2004

J...1992

J....1985

J...1975

 

PHASE 7

 

J...2010

F...1993

F...1978

J....1976

 

PHASE 6...NONE

 

PHASE 5

 

F...2008

F...2001

 

 

PHASE 4

 

J...1986

 

 

PHASE 3

 

F...1979

 

 

PHASE 2

 

D....1989

 

PHASE 1 NONE

[bluewave]

Now for the snowstorms.

 

1 foot or more

 

COD

 

2-19-79

2-11-83

1-7-96

2-16-03

2-25-10

12-26-10

 

WEAK

 

2-11-06..W8

 

 

PHASE 8

 

1-26-11

 

 

PHASE 7

 

2-5-78

 

 

PHASE 6

 

NONE

 

 

PHASE 5

 

NONE

 

 

PHASE 4

 

NONE

 

 

PHASE 3

 

1-19-78

 

 

PHASE 2

 

NONE

 

 

PHASE 1 

 

NONE

 

 

6 inches or more

 

COD

 

1-13-82

3-8-84

1-22-87

1-27-90

1-11-91

2-4-95

2-19-95

2-2-96

2-16-96

12-09-05

3-16-07

 

WEAK

 

2-12-75...W4

2-26-91

2-26-96..W3

1-22-05..W8

2-24-05...W8

2-28-05...W1

2-22-08...W1

3-1-09.....W4

 

PHASE 8

 

3-5-81

1-3-88

3-19-92

12-05-02

1-14-04

12-19-09

2-10-10

 

PHASE 7

 

4-6-82

 

 

PHASE 6

 

2-22-01

1-11-11

 

 

PHASE 5

 

NONE

 

 

PHASE 4

 

3-13-93

12-14-03

 

PHASE 3

 

2-5-85

2-8-94

2-11-94

1-28-04

 

PHASE 2

 

1-21-01

 

PHASE 1

 

1-25-00

 

 

 

 

 

 

[NaoPos]

Blue wave , some great info. However, you gotta be careful how those octants are laid out. There's a big difference between a MJO wave going 7,8,1 then COD as compared to a MJO wave going 3-4-5 then COD. The downstream lag effect really come to play here. You can tell how octants 7-1 have the majority. I bet most in the COD had the MJO in those octants 5 days prior to entering the COD.

Great info though fella.

[bluewave]

Blue wave , some great info. However, you gotta be careful how those octants are laid out. There's a big difference between a MJO wave going 7,8,1 then COD as compared to a MJO wave going 3-4-5 then COD. The downstream lag effect really come to play here. You can tell how octants 7-1 have the majority. I bet most in the COD had the MJO in those octants 5 days prior to entering the COD.

Great info though fella.

 

Sometimes the MJO passed through more favorable phases before entering COD and others not so favorable.

And on other occasions was proceeded by an extended incoherent signal. But that would be too much

to add to the post without being able to duplicate the extended diagrams for each instance.