Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 It's taken me awhile, but, using the Environment Canada data, I went through every January in Toronto back to 1870 and discovered some interesting trends. Most notably, it would appear that January in the first two decades of the 20th century in Toronto were rather mild in Toronto. Here is the data, with the year on the left, and the mean temperature in degrees celcius on the right: January 1900: -3.4C 1901: -4.7C 1902: -4.8C 1903: -5.0C 1904: -8.9C 1905: -7.8C 1906 -0.6C 1907: -5.5C 1908: -4.3C 1909: -3.2C 1910: -3.6C 1911: -3.4C 1912: -10.1C 1913: -0.3C 1914: -3.6C 1915: -4.6C 1916: -1.0C 1917: -5.2C 1918: -10.5C 1919: -1.5C Now look at the last three decades. It should be noted that the above were recorded in downtown Toronto, while the ones below were recorded at Toronto Pearson airport. 1980: -5.1C 1981: -10.2C 1982: -10.1C 1983: -4.1C 1984: -9.7C 1985: -8.4C 1986: -5.6C 1987: -4.6C 1988: -4.5C 1989: -2.2C 1990: -0.8C 1991: -5.7C 1992: -4.2C 1993: -3.9C 1994: -12.4C 1995: -3.1C 1996: -6.7C 1997: -6.4C 1998: -2.2C 1999: -6.2C 2000: -5.8C 2001: -4.1C 2002: -0.5C 2003: -8.3C 2004: -9.4C 2005: -6.8C 2006: 0.2C 2007: -2.9C 2008:-2.1C 2009: -8.8C 2010: -5.2C 2011: -7.0C 2012: -1.7C Note how in the first decade of the 20th century,the only exceptionally cold January was 1904. The others were roughly the same as the Januaries of the 1990s, with January 1906 being just as much of a torch as January 1990. So much for our great-grandparents facing bitter cold winters the likes of which we have never seen. Now look at how mild most of the Januaries of the 1910s were. Many of them were virtual blowtorches, including January 1913, 1914, 1916 and 1919. Only January 1912 and 1918 were frigid. Now look at the late 20th/early 21st century. The Januarys of the 1980s were almost colder than those of the 1900s, with January 1981 and 1982 easily surpassing all of them. As for the 1990s, note how 1994 stands out like a sore thumb. It is the coldest January ever recorded at Toronto Pearson airport and - get this- the coldest January recorded in Toronto since at least 1870!! Finally, look at how in the first decade of this century, the Januaries have slowly trending colder, despite the torches of 2002 and 2006. 2003-2005 saw three cold Januaries in a row, easily the equal of those in the first decade of the 20th century. This decade started out decently cold, with only last January being a torch. All-in-all, it would appear that the Januaries of today are not significantly warmer than those of our grandparents and great-grandparents. I read in a book on Toronto once that "anyone older than 50 can remember a time when the harbour froze regularly and people could skate to the Toronto Islands". Judging from what I've seen in the data (and I've only included a fraction of it in this post) I can't see how it is possible that the harbour regularly froze. If anything, the Januaries of the first two decades of the twentieth century were milder than what we've been experiencing. Granted, one does have to take into effect the different recording stations, with the early twentieth century readings being taken in a downtown location as opposed to the airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 It's taken me awhile, but, using the Environment Canada data, I went through every January in Toronto back to 1870 and discovered some interesting trends. Most notably, it would appear that January in the first two decades of the 20th century in Toronto were rather mild in Toronto. Here is the data, with the year on the left, and the mean temperature in degrees celcius on the right: January 1900: -3.4C 1901: -4.7C 1902: -4.8C 1903: -5.0C 1904: -8.9C 1905: -7.8C 1906 -0.6C 1907: -5.5C 1908: -4.3C 1909: -3.2C 1910: -3.6C 1911: -3.4C 1912: -10.1C 1913: -0.3C 1914: -3.6C 1915: -4.6C 1916: -1.0C 1917: -5.2C 1918: -10.5C 1919: -1.5C Now look at the last three decades. It should be noted that the above were recorded in downtown Toronto, while the ones below were recorded at Toronto Pearson airport. 1980: -5.1C 1981: -10.2C 1982: -10.1C 1983: -4.1C 1984: -9.7C 1985: -8.4C 1986: -5.6C 1987: -4.6C 1988: -4.5C 1989: -2.2C 1990: -0.8C 1991: -5.7C 1992: -4.2C 1993: -3.9C 1994: -12.4C 1995: -3.1C 1996: -6.7C 1997: -6.4C 1998: -2.2C 1999: -6.2C 2000: -5.8C 2001: -4.1C 2002: -0.5C 2003: -8.3C 2004: -9.4C 2005: -6.8C 2006: 0.2C 2007: -2.9C 2008:-2.1C 2009: -8.8C 2010: -5.2C 2011: -7.0C 2012: -1.7C Note how in the first decade of the 20th century,the only exceptionally cold January was 1904. The others were roughly the same as the Januaries of the 1990s, with January 1906 being just as much of a torch as January 1990. So much for our great-grandparents facing bitter cold winters the likes of which we have never seen. Now look at how mild most of the Januaries of the 1910s were. Many of them were virtual blowtorches, including January 1913, 1914, 1916 and 1919. Only January 1912 and 1918 were frigid. Now look at the late 20th/early 21st century. The Januarys of the 1980s were almost colder than those of the 1900s, with January 1981 and 1982 easily surpassing all of them. As for the 1990s, note how 1994 stands out like a sore thumb. It is the coldest January ever recorded at Toronto Pearson airport and - get this- the coldest January recorded in Toronto since at least 1870!! Finally, look at how in the first decade of this century, the Januaries have slowly trending colder, despite the torches of 2002 and 2006. 2003-2005 saw three cold Januaries in a row, easily the equal of those in the first decade of the 20th century. This decade started out decently cold, with only last January being a torch. All-in-all, it would appear that the Januaries of today are not significantly warmer than those of our grandparents and great-grandparents. I read in a book on Toronto once that "anyone older than 50 can remember a time when the harbour froze regularly and people could skate to the Toronto Islands". Judging from what I've seen in the data (and I've only included a fraction of it in this post) I can't see how it is possible that the harbour regularly froze. If anything, the Januaries of the first two decades of the twentieth century were milder than what we've been experiencing. Granted, one does have to take into effect the different recording stations, with the early twentieth century readings being taken in a downtown location as opposed to the airport. I argued this until I was blue in the face with another Ontario poster. Grandpa lived through similar winters as we do today, zero has changed in the mid latitudes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Very nice work OB. This goes to show you that the whole AGW thing is bogus but don't tell that to Dave Phillips. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 If y'all are gonna get into an AGW debate then you know where to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 12, 2013 Author Share Posted January 12, 2013 I don't mind if this thread is moved to the climate change forum. i should have posted it there in the first place! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 12, 2013 Author Share Posted January 12, 2013 Very nice work OB. This goes to show you that the whole AGW thing is bogus but don't tell that to Dave Phillips. I do think Dave Phillips is a good man though. His yearly calendar is always a best seller with interesting trivia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 http://www.climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?timeframe=2&Prov=ONT&StationID=5051&dlyRange=1840-03-01|2013-01-12&Month=1&Year=1977&cmdB1=Go&Day=-9 January 1977 is the only month in Toronto's history in which the temperature never got above 32 F (0 C). Records go back to the 1840s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Great work!!!! This thread certainly belongs in here but could also be reposted in the CC forum. Without getting into debates that don't belong in this subforum, as jonger said you can argue blue on the face with folks who dont want to see the data that proves their memory of what winter used to be is a fantasy. The bookend months of what we in the north consider winter (nov & mar) have shown a slight increase in temp, the core of winter has not. In fact i believe since 1874 detroit has seen just EIGHT years without a 40f+ temp in January, and 5 of those 8 have been since 1976!!!! January 1976 (max 32f) is the only january on record since 1874 to not havr an above freezing temp...and looking at toronto having records to the 1840s it ptobably goes much further back here too! I usually focus on snow data but I should look up some temp stuff here as well. Perhaps we could turn this into a region thread for January temp stats and stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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