Edge Weather Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 you know something the models have not been handling anything well - this arctic outbreak keeps getting delayed and positioning of it changed even the latest HPC statement mentions this............With this I agree completely. That is indeed how this storm trended further north for Wednesday. I still don't think we have much chance with the Friday storm though. I am however extremely interested in the possibilities for next Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Sleet,rain and snow mix falling right now.Temp 35.8 and falling fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 The New Euro weeklies out 1 st week on euro starts day 11- 15 week 4. jan - very cold- pos pna - neg nao week 1. feb - very cold -pos pna -neg nao week 2. feb - still cold , no warm weather on weeklies thru mid feb say weeklies. matches up with the cfs v2 . they look very similar . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Sleet pinging off the skylights up here in Byram Twp (Sussex County). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsh Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Sleet & rain Greenwich. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I heard that the Euro weeklies show a lot of snow opportunites and a big snowstorm next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Just had some sleet mixed in with some rain a few minutes ago in Garwood (central Union County NJ)?!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 15, 2013 Author Share Posted January 15, 2013 00z NAM looks way colder than the GFS. Not going to go down without a fight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 15, 2013 Author Share Posted January 15, 2013 00z NAM also looks warmer than the 18z NAM so far though. Looks like a nice thump for northern NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 ya at 36 mod precip overhead 850's straddling south shore of LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 00z NAM looks way colder than the GFS. Not going to go down without a fight. It's warmer then 18z...good run for nw burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 00z NAM also looks warmer than the 18z NAM so far though. agreed but 18z and 6z NAM runs have been known to make wild swings so I would compare to 12z, which from memory seems pretty close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 It's warmer then 18z...good run for nw burbs Looks like the city still gets some snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 15, 2013 Author Share Posted January 15, 2013 agreed but 18z and 6z NAM runs have been known to make wild swings so I would compare to 12z, which from memory seems pretty close. Agreed. Will be interesting to see what 6z holds. Pretty good run though for the burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Looks like the city still gets some snow Northern half of NYC prob does ok the way the nam sees it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Looks like the city still gets some snow It's close Anthony. I would have to say its a lot of mix/rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 It's close Anthony. I would have to say its a lot of mix/rain. I agree. Still colder than the GFS. Rgem should be interesting tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 15, 2013 Author Share Posted January 15, 2013 It's close Anthony. I would have to say its a lot of mix/rain. Goes to show you how borderline this situation is. A slight warm up in the thermal profiles, and the precipitation type changes entirely for the city, and vice versa for that matter. Wouldn't surprise me to see it slightly cooler at 6z, since it seems to be slightly fluctuating in the thermal profiles at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 The nam basically runs the rain/snow line through the city for the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Zucker ran the nam tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 The nam basically runs the rain/snow line through the city for the event This is close http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/nam/00/nam_namer_039_10m_wnd_precip.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 NAM now is mostly rain as well for NYC and surrounding suburbs in NJ....north of i287 maybe snow and definitely in NW nj an accumulating snow....I still think a slushy half inch is possible like I said from the beginning for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 15, 2013 Author Share Posted January 15, 2013 The nam basically runs the rain/snow line through the city for the event It runs it right over me as well. P types should be interesting tomorrow night to say the least if the 00z NAM verifies verbatim... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 The nam basically runs the rain/snow line through the city for the event This is close http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/nam/00/nam_namer_039_10m_wnd_precip.gif Not really too close.....it's a usual "high elevation/NW suburbs situation. It'd have to shift very far south to put NYC in the all snow zone and still pretty far to put them in mostly snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Nam is moderate to heavy snow for the City ending as drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 15, 2013 Author Share Posted January 15, 2013 Not really too close.....it's a usual "high elevation/NW suburbs situation. It'd have to shift very far south to put NYC in the all snow zone and still pretty far to put them in mostly snow Disagree strongly with the bolded if you're talking about the 00z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Not really too close.....it's a usual "high elevation/NW suburbs situation. It'd have to shift very far south to put NYC in the all snow zone and still pretty far to put them in mostly snow Soundings show snow to sleet/ rain for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 15, 2013 Author Share Posted January 15, 2013 Nam is moderate to heavy snow for the City ending as drizzle. Is that from the soundings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 It runs it right over me as well. P types should be interesting tomorrow night to say the least if the 00z NAM verifies verbatim... The fact that it got warmer, and still on the colder side of the envelop has me hesitant to use it. It's very boarder line for you guys. I'm 100% sure I will be rain. Guys just north of me really have no room for error Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Is that from the soundings? Yes. Maybe a bit of sleet at the end too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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