famartin Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Ratios NW of I-80/I-287 are 14:1 or better. A lot of precip also falls during the coldest part of the day (early morning hours). It's a first guess, still time for the models to swing one way or another. I wouldn't expect those kind of ratios with this sort of a sounding... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 The NAM's crazy depiction of the event at Day 3-4 shows why this model should just not even be run past 60 hours, its just a waste of NCEP's money if you ask me. It treneded much strong with the northern stream shortwave phasing in over Oklahoma. The end result is a stronger storm that takes longer to shear out. Probably wouldn't make much difference for us anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Don't use surface temperatures or 850s for ratios. Use the temperatures of the snow growth region, and look at how saturated the snow growth region itself is. Ideally, you want your snow growth region to have temperatures between -12 and -18 C for best dendrite growth. This is when the difference between the saturation vapor pressure with respect to ice and the saturation vapor pressure with respect to water is the greatest, which allows for the most efficient snow growth. Also, you want good omega/lift in the snow growth region, as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I wouldn't expect those kind of ratios with this sort of a sounding... You'll have to excuse me. My level of amateur weather nerd hasn't quite progressed to the point where I can properly understand those soundings without help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 You'll have to excuse me. My level of amateur weather nerd hasn't quite progressed to the point where I can properly understand those soundings without help. You'll have to excuse me. My level of amateur weather nerd hasn't quite progressed to the point where I can properly understand those soundings without help. in short ... You are goin to be 10 -1 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 in short ... You are goin to be 10 -1 . Well to be fair, 0.4" of precip at KMMU (just a guess) fits my 3"-5" prediction perfectly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 The 18z GFS remains warmer than the NAM and the ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Looks like the 18z GFS is going to be coming in different from the 12z run, still too early to tell. It may be on the verge of doing something big. The PV over SE Canada overall looks to be in a more favorable position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 Looks like the 18z GFS is going to be coming in different from the 12z run, still too early to tell. It's rain for everyone in the metro area aside from perhaps a brief period of snow/sleet in the Far N and W suburbs. Very warm run. Very large thermal differences between models right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 It's rain for everyone in the metro area aside from perhaps a brief period of snow/sleet in the Far N and W suburbs. Very warm run. Very large thermal differences between models right now. That's not the storm I was referring too. I was talking about the storm over the central and southern US. It looked for a little while like the PV might be displaced enough to allow heights to build over the ocean. That's not the case. The pig PV comes down in the end and squashes everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 NWS forecast for my area is 100% chance of snow, 2-4" acc. Tues nite, with light additional acc. Wed. morn.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 The 18z RGEM is slightly east with the placement of the Low and slightly weaker with the Low as well. Waiting for precipitation maps to update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 That's not the storm I was referring too. I was talking about the storm over the central and southern US. It looked for a little while like the PV might be displaced enough to allow heights to build over the ocean. That's not the case. The pig PV comes down in the end and squashes everything. I think it's nearly a lock that the friday storm should pass to the south of us because of all of the confluence to the north and the PV suppressing any coastal system trying to form and move up along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 The 12z Euro Ensemble Mean has the Jan 22th storm not that far SE of 40/70. It's a start: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 It's going to be 40F and rain, you can bank on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 It's going to be 40F and rain, you can bank on that. Not for the interior suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 HPC Outlook - losing confidence in the extent of the arctic air EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1020 AM EST MON JAN 14 2013VALID 12Z THU JAN 17 2013 - 12Z MON JAN 21 2013USED THE 00Z/14 ECMWF FOR THE FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3THROUGH 5, THEN SWITCHED TO THE 00Z/14 ECENS MEAN DAYS 6 AND 7 TOMITIGATE THE SYNOPTIC DETAIL UNCERTAINTY INHERENT TO THAT TIMERANGE. THE 00Z/14 GFS--UPON WHICH THE LATEST MOS IS BASED--WAS ADEVELOPED OUTLIER WITH THE WAVE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES DURINGTHE PERIOD. THE GEM GLOBAL AND UKMET HAVE HAD A STRING OF VOLATILESOLUTIONS. THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF, WHILE NOT STABLE EITHER, HASBEEN USABLE WHEN IT HAS JIBED WITH ITS ATTENDANT MEAN--AS IS THECURRENT CASE. THE PATTERN IS A DRY ONE AS A WHOLE FOR THE NATION,WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND CONTINENTAL POLAR AND ARCTIC AIRPOURING INTO THE CENTRAL AND EAST. WHILE THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE ISSTILL IN PLACE, A COUPLE MORE WAVES MAY BE FORCED FAR ENOUGHNORTHWARD TO PRODUCED STRIPES OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM THETENNESSEE VALLEY EASTWARD TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINA COASTS.IN TERMS OF THE ARCTIC AIR, THE MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING ANEVENTUAL TRANSPORT OF THE SUPERFRIGID AIR OVER CANADA IN THENORTHERN TIER OF STATES FOR SOME TIME NOW--USUALLY AT THE END OFTHE MEDIUM RANGE OR BEYOND. THE BACKING OFF OF THIS PREDICTEDTRANSPORT HAS NOT BEEN VERY PREPOSSESSING IN TERMS OF CONFIDENCEIN THE EVENT. STILL, FEEL THERE IS CURRENTLY ENOUGH CRITICAL MASSIN THE GUIDANCE TO INTRODUCE SIGNIFICANT NEGATIVE TEMPERATUREANOMALIES OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES DAYS 6 AND 7 IN THISFORECAST PACKAGE.CISCO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 18z RGEM has 0.4" of precip in the form of Snow for NYC, and around 0.1" of ice pellets for NYC. Trace amounts of freezing rain and rain. It's actually a tick cooler for NYC in the sense that it has slightly less rain than the 12z had for Wave 2. Looks nothing like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 everyone vs the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 everyone vs the GFS? For the most part. The UKIE is a bit north as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 For the most part. The UKIE is a bit north as well. On Meteocentre, the UKMET maps haven't updated for whatever reason for the 12z UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 For the most part. The UKIE is a bit north as well. you can add the srefs to that, they are pretty warm to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 you can add the srefs to that, they are pretty warm to. The Srefs have been pretty bad so I take those with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 From Mount Holly: Looks like they're expecting wintry weather Somerset County N and W. SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-WESTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-422 PM EST MON JAN 14 2013THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEWJERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRALPENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA..DAY ONE...TONIGHT.WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.ADVISORY SNOW AND ICE IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAYMORNING AS A 6 TO 12 HOUR BURST OF MIXED PRECIPITATION OCCURS. FORNOW WE THINK THE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL REMAIN NORTHOF I80 WHERE 2 TO 5 INCHES COULD ACCUMULATE WITH NASTY WEDNESDAYMORNING COMMUTE.FURTHER SOUTH NEAR INTERSTATE 78 FROM NORTH CENTRAL NEW JERSEY ANDTHE LEHIGH VALLEY OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...DOWN INTO PHILADELPHIA`SDISTANT WESTERN SUBURBS...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE A MIX OF SLEET...RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN...POSSIBLY CHANGING BRIEFLY TO SNOW DURINGTHE HEAVIEST PORTION OF THE EVENT EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ROADTREATMENTS ARE ANTICIPATED THERE AS WELL.THE TRANSITION ZONE OF SNOW ICE AND RAIN IS SUBJECT TO ADJUSTMENTIN FUTURE FORECASTS.CONFIDENCE ON A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OCCURRENCE BY DAWN WEDNESDAY ISABOVEAVERAGE IN MUCH OF THIS AREA BUT THE AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND ICE IN ANYLOCATION IS UNCERTAIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 DGEX for this weekend http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/DGEXEAST_18z/dgexloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 DGEX for this weekend http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/DGEXEAST_18z/dgexloop.html If this yrs consistent north trend is any indication then sign me up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 The 18z GFS ensembles have a couple of interesting looking possibilities. One looks very similar in strength and placement to the Euro Control run of this morning, although just a touch further east, with a 976 mb low off the DelMarva that it deepens to 956 mb by around Maine or Nova Scotia, really can't even see it. Definite possibilities here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 DGEX for this weekend http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/DGEXEAST_18z/dgexloop.html would not be a surprise if this continues to trend north to the point where mixing is an issue here - and areas south of the metro are a mix to rain - southeast ridge is not going to give up easily will keep pumping systems more north as we get closer to them in fact next weeks arctic outbreak will not be as deep into the southeast as presently indicated ............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 would not be a surprise if this continues to trend north to the point where mixing is an issue here - and areas south of the metro are a mix to rain - southeast ridge is not going to give up easily will keep pumping systems more north as we get closer to them in fact next weeks arctic outbreak will not be as deep into the southeast as presently indicated ............ It actually trended very much south from this morning. On this morning's run it was so far north of us that it was rain. Now it misses us to the south. This was a major south trend, which will definitely continue. No other model has the storm this far north and the extended NAM is not going to be the one that ends up being correct with this storm. Yes, if it does happen I will eat crow, but I see about zero chance that this is the odd model that will win on the Friday storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 It actually trended very much south from this morning. On this morning's run it was so far north of us that it was rain. Now it misses us to the south. This was a major south trend, which will definitely continue. No other model has the storm this far north and the extended NAM is not going to be the one that ends up being correct with this storm. Yes, if it does happen I will eat crow, but I see about zero chance that this is the odd model that will win on the Friday storm. you know something the models have not been handling anything well - this arctic outbreak keeps getting delayed and positioning of it changed even the latest HPC statement mentions this............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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