Kaner587 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 18z nam looks colder than 12z with light to mod precip by hr 42. I have no expectations for this event as I'm in manhattan so I hope to be pleasantly surprised. Highly doubt it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 By 45 looks like 0.25 has fallen throughout most of the area 850 line in central NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 18z NAM continues to be colder than the GFS. Has 850s pretty far S and E: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Nam is a all snow event for NYC fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 Looks like the 850 mb 0C line is running through KTTN at hour 48 roughly estimating off of the NCEP maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 NAM has about 0.50" qpf for nyc area all snow..However there is a dry slot on the sim radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 The NAM has precipitation ending at hour 54 per the Simulated radar images. From Princeton NJ N and W, this appears to be all snow on the NAM. The NAM is also pretty juicy as well. 0.5"+ of precip for TTN, and close to 0.5" for NYC for the second wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 No snow goggles. I have been watching this threat for some time and the euro ensembles have been highlighting the JAN 22 period for a while. I remember looking at the ensembles at 272 hrs and seeing the signal for Jan 22. The ensembles are what excited me about the Jan 22 period long before the OP showed anything (for the reasons aforementioned). Secondly, I don't ever recall calling you out about saying snowfall accumulations would be lower. I do remember questioning you after you concluded how much liquid everyone would get before the storm concluded. And I think I stated it was unfair to draw that conclusion before the storm ended, knowing that areas would vary based on who got under the heavier bands. I received 4-5 inches in NNJ, the whole area did not bust, just those areas that are always questionable to begin with in marginal situations. Not to mention holding onto the primary longer allowed for sufficient waa. Look, I call them as I see them. I am not trying to be a downer or rain on anyones parade. I know everyone loves big snowstorms around here here so sometimes the posts can be taken the wrong way. At least we haven't had anything as bad as the January 2008 debacle this season so far when the thread starter actually deleted the whole thread during the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Typical NAM cold BIAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 NAM has about 0.50" qpf for nyc area all snow..However there is a dry slot on the sim radar The details on the Sim Radar tend to vary from run to run from what I've seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Look, I call them as I see them. I am not trying to be a downer or rain on anyones parade. I know everyone loves big snowstorms around here here so sometimes the posts can be taken the wrong way. At least we haven't had anything as bad as the January 2008 debacle this season so far when the thread starter actually deleted the whole thread during the storm. First and last time I ever want to see a heavy snow warning. Still have nightmares about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I tend to think that the NAM is too cold as usual and the likely scenario will be closer to the Euro. Maybe an inch of slop (if that) in immediate NYC metro with 2-4 in the immediate burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I tend to think that the NAM is too cold as usual and the likely scenario will be closer to the Euro. Maybe an inch of slop (if that) in immediate NYC metro with 2-4 in the immediate burbs. I agree with this. Typical nam fun inside 48 hrs. After seeing euro I'm a little more confident for area north of city. Although gfs is very warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 The other interesting aspect of this event is that precip begins lightly around 06z wednesday morning (1am) and continues for basically the better part of 18 hours until late wednesday night maybe shutting off again as some light precip around 00z. I could envision a scenario involving changing over from snow to rain to snow for coastal areas, again not accumulating much but snow flying nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 I tend to think that the NAM is too cold as usual and the likely scenario will be closer to the Euro. Maybe an inch of slop (if that) in immediate NYC metro with 2-4 in the immediate burbs. The NAM isn't always cold. It was by far the warmest model during the 12/26/12 event, and was one of the warmest models for the 1/21/12 event as well. The Euro seems to be a good middle ground solution, with the 850 0 C line running literally about 5 miles south of me at hour 60. I should be pretty close to the battleground IMO in Somerset County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 The NAM isn't always cold. It was by far the warmest model during the 12/26/12 event. The Euro seems to be a good middle ground solution, with the 850 0 C line running literally about 5 miles south of me at hour 60. I should be pretty close to the battleground IMO in Somerset County. Nam did well with changeover on dec 29th, euro is def the middle rd here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 Nam did well with changeover on dec 29th, euro is def the middle rd here Agreed. Hopefully the GFS comes in cooler, though I'm skeptical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 First guess... KJFK - 0.5"-1.0" KLGA - 1.0"2.0" KNYC (at the park) - 1.5"-2.5" KISP - 2.0"-3.5" KMMU - 3.0"-5.0" Sussex, NJ - 4.0"-6.0" Middletown, NY - 4.0"-6.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 First guess... KJFK - 0.5"-1.0" KLGA - 1.0"2.0" KNYC (at the park) - 1.5"-2.5" KISP - 2.0"-3.5" KMMU - 3.0"-5.0" Sussex, NJ - 4.0"-6.0" Middletown, NY - 4.0"-6.0" Those numbers seem a bit too high IMO. Cut them down by about an inch or so, and those are decent snow guesses IMO. Just out of curiosity, what's your thinking for the KTTN region and the KSMQ region? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Euro ens 850 temps are identical to 12z op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 The NAM isn't always cold. It was by far the warmest model during the 12/26/12 event, and was one of the warmest models for the 1/21/12 event as well. The Euro seems to be a good middle ground solution, with the 850 0 C line running literally about 5 miles south of me at hour 60. I should be pretty close to the battleground IMO in Somerset County. The NAM is very bad on cold biases in SW flow type events though and this sort of qualifies as that though its not a true example. The Euro though usually by this point will be notably warmer than the NAM, the fact it is not may be a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 The NAM is very bad on cold biases in SW flow type events though and this sort of qualifies as that though its not a true example. The Euro though usually by this point will be notably warmer than the NAM, the fact it is not may be a good sign. thats true...Euro is slightly warmer but more similar to NAM than GFS. This may mean gfs is out to lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 The NAM's crazy depiction of the event at Day 3-4 shows why this model should just not even be run past 60 hours, its just a waste of NCEP's money if you ask me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 http://imageshack.us'>ImageShack.us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 First guess... KJFK - 0.5"-1.0" KLGA - 1.0"2.0" KNYC (at the park) - 1.5"-2.5" KISP - 2.0"-3.5" KMMU - 3.0"-5.0" Sussex, NJ - 4.0"-6.0" Middletown, NY - 4.0"-6.0" My call right now would be : KJFK - 0.25" KLGA - 0.50" KNYC (at the park) - 0.5" KISP - 0.75" KMMU - 2" Sussex, NJ - 3.5" Middletown, NY - 3" I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 My call right now would be : KJFK - 0.25" KLGA - 0.50" KNYC (at the park) - 0.5" KISP - 0.75" KMMU - 2" Sussex, NJ - 3.5" Middletown, NY - 3" I Those numbers definitely sound reasonable IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Those numbers seem a bit too high IMO. Cut them down by about an inch or so, and those are decent snow guesses IMO. Just out of curiosity, what's your thinking for the KTTN region and the KSMQ region? Ratios NW of I-80/I-287 are 14:1 or better. A lot of precip also falls during the coldest part of the day (early morning hours). It's a first guess, still time for the models to swing one way or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 My call right now would be : KJFK - 0.25" KLGA - 0.50" KNYC (at the park) - 0.5" KISP - 0.75" KMMU - 2" Sussex, NJ - 3.5" Middletown, NY - 3" I That's a fair guess, if you favor the GFS/Euro more than the NAM/GGEM. Something to note, the SREF's now extend the 0.5+ line NW of the entire region. 850 freezing line never makes it north of a line from about TTN to NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 First and last time I ever want to see a heavy snow warning. Still have nightmares about it You knew something was wrong when the models kept warming their forecasts for the last day or two of runs heading into the storm. I think everyone was still annoyed after the Valentine's Day storm turned into a sleet and freezing rain special after the 70 degree readings in early January 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 You knew something was wrong when the models kept warming their forecasts for the last day or two of runs heading into the storm. I think everyone was still annoyed after the Valentine's Day storm turned into a sleet and freezing rain special after the 70 degree readings in early January 2007. I had a flood watch out for January 07. So the sleet was a welcome sight. As we never turn to rain down here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.