WintersGrasp Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Looks like mainly rain I would think for NYC and south....even for much of NJ. Elevation should play a big part here....but I like where we're sitting. Just yesterday we were in the colder part of this with pretty much no precip. So a stronger system and slight shift south will mean a couple inches of snow for us. Right now I'll actually go with a call of a half inch sloppy mess for the area with a few inches NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Euro is snow north jersey and Hudson valley. Icy mix nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 i think almost all of us see rain. still time for this to jump more north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 i think almost all of us see rain. still time for this to jump more north Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Euro is snow north jersey and Hudson valley. Icy mix nyc How's QPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 How's QPF? .5+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 i think almost all of us see rain. still time for this to jump more north I agree for the immediate NYC Metro but N & W with some elevation may luck out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Yeah I think for the 5 boroughs, feel lucky if you get a coating. NW could certainly see a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Looks like the Euro took one step closer to this morning's control run for next Tuesday's potential. Not there yet, but really close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 The 12Z ECMWF is MUCH colder than the 00Z ECMWF. HR 168 850s 00Z= -12C to -14C 12Z= -18C to -20C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 12Z ECMWF HR 192 1007 mB Clipper running NE from the GL. Massive pool of Arctic Air pouring South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 The 12Z ECMWF is MUCH colder than the 00Z ECMWF. HR 168 00Z= -12C to -14C 12Z= -18C to -20C You sure? My sources say its about the same... Are you sure you aren't comparing the incorrect times? If I look at 180 its -18 to -20... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 12Z ECMWF HR 216 Clipper batters NNE. Arctic Blast hits the NE/MD-ATL. Widespread -18C to -20C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 You sure? My sources say its about the same... Are you sure you aren't comparing the incorrect times? If I look at 180 its -18 to -20... I'm using Allan Huffman's Site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Very suppressed looking cold pattern on the Euro. Maybe we can get lucky with a clipper or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Very suppressed looking cold pattern on the Euro. Maybe we can get lucky with a clipper or two. It's not that bad at all, actually. Gives us light snow from a Miller B at 190hrs or so which is close to developing into a huge storm if it does so any sooner, and then looks poised to give us another snowstorm post 200 hrs. The PV is rotating and shifting around in Southeast Canada so there are plenty of nuances involved and the pattern definitely wouldn't be boring or totally suppressed/dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I'm using Allan Huffman's Site. Unless I'm missing something, Alan's site is missing 180 hrs from the 0Z EC, which is what you would compare the 12Z 168 hr output to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 It's not that bad at all, actually. Gives us light snow from a Miller B at 190hrs or so which is close to developing into a huge storm if it does so any sooner, and then looks poised to give us another snowstorm post 200 hrs. The PV is rotating and shifting around in Southeast Canada so there are plenty of nuances involved and the pattern definitely wouldn't be boring or totally suppressed/dry. The mean 500 mb look might get a little more interesting January 24-31 as the PV lifts out and energy cuts underneath. Post 6-10 day looks like it may be the best shot at putting something together this season so far. The ridge building north of Alaska should keep the pattern interesting into early February, but hopefully it extends beyond the first week before the pattern reverses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Very suppressed looking cold pattern on the Euro. Maybe we can get lucky with a clipper or two. Has anyone actually looked at the EURO? That was by far the best run in a while. The only warmth so to speak is a brief moderation this weekend. Before and after that is either cold or very cold. And how about the huge ridge out west, active northern stream, beautiful trough, nice 50/50, and cold air on our side (pv). Not to mention the euro even has retrograding western based neg nao. Let's not forget it is very close to producing a snowstorm around Jan 22 (a bit late with the phase so we get light precip, further north gets hammered) and if you extrapolate the later portion of the run it would probably hit us with a real nice snowstorm around Jan 25-27. Several threats here and a much more wintry pattern, and we are discussing the possibility of hitting 45 maybe a day this weekend. Step it up people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Has anyone actually looked at the EURO? That was by far the best run in a while. The only warmth so to speak is a brief moderation this weekend. Before and after that is either cold or very cold. And how about the huge ridge out west, active northern stream, beautiful trough, nice 50/50, and cold air on our side (pv). Not to mention the euro even has retrograding western based neg nao. Let's not forget it is very close to producing a snowstorm around Jan 22 (a bit late with the phase so we get light precip, further north gets hammered) and if you extrapolate the later portion of the run it would probably hit us with a real nice snowstorm around Jan 25-27. Several threats here and a much more wintry pattern, and we are discussing the possibility of hitting 45 maybe a day this weekend. Step it up people. Dude..relax..we are discussing the 6-10 day which will be dominated by cold and mostly dry and maybe a clipper. If you bothered to read my reply to Earthlight, the interesting period may be Day 11-15 and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 The mean 500 mb look might get a little more interesting January 24-31 as the PV lifts out and energy cuts underneath. Post 6-10 day looks like it may be the best shot at putting something together this season so far. The ridge building north of Alaska should keep the pattern interesting into early February, but hopefully it extends beyond the first week before the pattern reverses. 00zECMWFENS500mbHeightAnomalyNA240.gif Yeah, agreed. I think we can sneak some light snow events in the meantime as the cold air begins to infiltrate into the area. Seeing the dominant PV on our side of the globe is really encouraging and I think the ridge north of Alaska adds some confidence to the increasing potential as we move forward into late January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 The 12z Euro has another artic blast coming into Upper Midwest on the 24th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Hey my favorite uncle cad should be knocking on the door very shortly sit back and relax the second show of a double feature is about to begin.peace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 The 12z Euro has another artic blast coming into Upper Midwest on the 24th. That would match the stratospheric warming "lag" quite well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Yeah, agreed. I think we can sneak some light snow events in the meantime as the cold air begins to infiltrate into the area. Seeing the dominant PV on our side of the globe is really encouraging and I think the ridge north of Alaska adds some confidence to the increasing potential as we move forward into late January. Yeah, the duration of the ridge north of Alaska will be the key. That is typically a cold and potentially snowy teleconnection for us this time of year. The models have really been hitting that feature hard the last few runs and must be why the euro weeklies and CFS moved colder. Obviously we are milder this go around, but that ridge was a strong feature in January 2004, 1994, and 1982. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 So we might actually be below normal for once? It's been so warm that I heard some people actually complaining about the "cold" when it was probably like 45F yesterday and temperatures in the 30s for most is considered frigid. I swear it must be like living in Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Its only a matter of time before something big puts itself together....The setup we have been waiting for looks to expose itself last week of Jan into Feb. The naysayers are just understandably frustrated and pessimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 So we might actually be below normal for once? It's been so warm that I heard some people actually complaining about the "cold" when it was probably like 45F yesterday and temperatures in the 30s for most is considered frigid. I swear it must be like living in Virginia. It has been one of the warmest winters of my lifetime..after last winter I would think that was impossible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 The 12z models are really looks fantastic. Tons of blocking, PNA, arctic air...the whole lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.