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Possible Snow Threats and Upcoming Cold Spell

Snow_Miser

By Snow_Miser,
in New York City Metro

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IsentropicLift

IsentropicLift

Posted
Posted

For the second wave the PV is killing us. It's squashing the heights off the coast and the system has no choice but to stay way to our south. FWIW 12z NAM has 0.5" total accumulation at KMMU.

 

130116/0800Z  44  VRB02KT  34.6F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.026    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03   59|  0| 41
130116/0900Z  45  VRB02KT  33.3F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.050    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.08   73|  0| 27
130116/1000Z  46  VRB01KT  33.2F  SNOW    7:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.037    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.11   80|  0| 20
130116/1100Z  47  02003KT  33.0F  SNOW    5:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.063    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.18   85|  0| 15
130116/1200Z  48  01004KT  33.0F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.070    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.25   75|  0| 25
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
130116/1300Z  49  07003KT  32.8F  SNOW    5:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.052    2:1|  0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.30   86|  0| 14
130116/1400Z  50  04004KT  32.8F  SNOW    7:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.037    3:1|  0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.34   86|  0| 14
130116/1500Z  51  04004KT  32.8F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.041    3:1|  0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.38   86|  0| 14
130116/1600Z  52  04004KT  32.8F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.036    3:1|  0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.41   86|  0| 14
130116/1700Z  53  02003KT  32.8F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.034    3:1|  0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.45   86|  0| 14
130116/1800Z  54  02003KT  33.0F  SNOW    5:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.016    3:1|  0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.46   85|  0| 15
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
130116/1900Z  55  VRB01KT  34.1F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009    3:1|  0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.47   72|  0| 28
 

and nothing at KLGA

 

130116/0800Z  44  30003KT  36.9F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02   16|  0| 84
130116/0900Z  45  05003KT  34.4F SNRAPL   0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.060    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.08   47| 17| 36
130116/1000Z  46  36003KT  34.2F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.026    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.10   64|  0| 36
130116/1100Z  47  02004KT  33.3F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.070    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.17   78|  0| 22
130116/1200Z  48  01006KT  33.9F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.047    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.22   69|  0| 31
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
130116/1300Z  49  03004KT  33.9F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.064    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.28   67|  0| 33
130116/1400Z  50  03006KT  33.9F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.047    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.33   67|  0| 33
130116/1500Z  51  03005KT  34.1F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.038    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.37   59|  0| 41
130116/1600Z  52  03006KT  34.1F SNRAPL   0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.40   50| 21| 29
130116/1700Z  53  02006KT  34.2F SNRAPL   0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.026    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.42   48| 22| 30
130116/1800Z  54  02005KT  34.4F SNRAPL   0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.43   36| 36| 28
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
130116/1900Z  55  36004KT  35.1F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.44   35|  4| 61
130116/2000Z  56  VRB02KT  35.3F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.44   35|  2| 63
 

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

I don't think this would be a snow event N and W right now either but more likely sleet or freezing rain, this could be a severe ice storm for someone and this includes coastal areas, the low level temps I think will be cold enough, its the mid levels that are more likely to be a problem.  This is one sort of setup where the coast can get a decent ice storm.  We had an event like this in 1/96 where the coast saw a good 5-6 hours of FZRA before eventually going to snow and picking up a couple of inches, it was similar with an arctic airmass bleeding in from the NW slowly.

Soundings show mainly mid-30s type temps for the city and coastal regions. If there was more of a high to the north I could see it, but to me this looks like a miserable, 34F-type rain event for most.

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