Kaner587 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Euro looks very nice at hr 54-60. A good amount of precip and on the colder end of the modeling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Yup. Euro is colder then the gfs. 850 line stays near Sandy Hook the entire time. When precip is over at hour 66, the 850 line is on top of NYC. .25"-.50" of total precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Yup. Euro is colder then the gfs. 850 line stays near Sandy Hook the entire time. When precip is over at hour 66, the 850 line is on top of NYC. .25"-.50" of total precip. Not as cold as the ggem or nam but nowhere near as warm as the gfs or the ukie.A nice run for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Surface starts at 35. And quickly drops to 33 degrees. 850s frozen the whole run. Soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Yes it will be dismal.. Washington might just end up with more snow then us for the month of Jan if they get a storm at the end of the week.. What are you talking bout anyway, euro looks sweet. Probly a nice 1-4" type deal for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Surface starts at 35. And quickly drops to 33 degrees. 850s frozen the whole run. Soundings. .42" of total precip for NYC. The majority of it is snow. Maybe drizzle to start and drizzle to end with a nice snow bomb in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I don't think anyone will buy into a snow scenario for this event with it as marginal as it is now...especially after the recent bust and this is actually a somewhat similar setup as far as the temp profiles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I don't think anyone will buy into a snow scenario for this event with it as marginal as it is now...especially after the recent bust and this is actually a somewhat similar setup as far as the temp profiles. Anyone being defined as those unable to read a skew T diagram or a weather map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I don't think anyone will buy into a snow scenario for this event with it as marginal as it is now...especially after the recent bust and this is actually a somewhat similar setup as far as the temp profiles. euro nam ggem vs. GFS ukie rgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Can the gut feeling, guess, and fake pessimism posts go the banter thread? We shouldnt have to read that bs in every thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 6z rgem continues to show the 2nd wave being cold and snowier.Has a light snowfall for the region. 6z GEFS http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/06zgfsensemblep12060.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Euro Control run this morning bombs the storm out next Tuesday into a major Nor'easter, developing it near the Virginia Capes as a 996mb at 198 hrs, then taking to to just off Asbury Park as a 982mb low at 204 hrs, then to Cape Cod as a 974mb low. 850's are amazingly cold, right off the coast and south of Long Island so everyone is snow. It shows around a foot of snow for everyone with nice wrap-around. It is a thing of beauty. At the height of the storm it has the 850 temps at -10 to -20 just to the west of NYC and almost into NYC and surface temps in the single digits. So, verbatim, this would most likely be a high ratio snow too, so the amount I gave was probably too low. Of course, who knows if this will happen, but Tip in the New England forum has been talking about the possibility of a KU on this day for quite some time now, and verbatim, this model shows probably 1-2 feet for NYC and vicinity. And, yes I know it is just one model, but this model did nail the October 29, 2011 snowstorm very well in our area, even better than the operational run, so who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I feel this will end up just like a storm last month . Cold rain NYC south. Bxeng and zucker build snowmen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 Euro Control run this morning bombs the storm out next Tuesday into a major Nor'easter, developing it near the Virginia Capes as a 996mb at 198 hrs, then taking to to just off Asbury Park as a 982mb low at 204 hrs, then to Cape Cod as a 974mb low. 850's are amazingly cold, right off the coast and south of Long Island so everyone is snow. It shows around a foot of snow for everyone with nice wrap-around. It is a thing of beauty. At the height of the storm it has the 850 temps at -10 to -20 just to the west of NYC and almost into NYC and surface temps in the single digits. So, verbatim, this would most likely be a high ratio snow too, so the amount I gave was probably too low. Of course, who knows if this will happen, but Tip in the New England forum has been talking about the possibility of a KU on this day for quite some time now, and verbatim, this model shows probably 1-2 feet for NYC and vicinity. And, yes I know it is just one model, but this model did nail the October 29, 2011 snowstorm very well in our area, even better than the operational run, so who knows? The operational ECM also has this storm around this timeframe, it's just significantly weaker. That's a nice storm on the EPS run by the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 The operational ECM also has this storm around this timeframe, it's just significantly weaker. That's a nice storm on the EPS run by the way. Yes, the Euro operational run just misses. The control run brings home the goods in a big way. Massive potential there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Looks like the JMA and the UKMET really nailed this storm for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Amazing how they blew away the Euro and the GFS with this one apparently. And here is the JMA from this morning. It went even heavier with the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Looks like the JMA and the UKMET really nailed this storm for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Amazing how they blew away the Euro and the GFS with this one apparently. it hasn't even happened yet.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 it hasn't even happened yet.... That is why I said apparently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 That is why I said apparently. my bad. didn't pick up the sarcasm on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Looks to me like another North and West storm. Airmass is cruddy to say the least, and a fairly weak overrunning wave won't be enough to supply dynamic cooling at all. Yawn. Next... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Looks to me like another North and West storm. Airmass is cruddy to say the least, and a fairly weak overrunning wave won't be enough to supply dynamic cooling at all. Yawn. Next... yup just rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Looks to me like another North and West storm. Airmass is cruddy to say the least, and a fairly weak overrunning wave won't be enough to supply dynamic cooling at all. Yawn. Next... I don't think this would be a snow event N and W right now either but more likely sleet or freezing rain, this could be a severe ice storm for someone and this includes coastal areas, the low level temps I think will be cold enough, its the mid levels that are more likely to be a problem. This is one sort of setup where the coast can get a decent ice storm. We had an event like this in 1/96 where the coast saw a good 5-6 hours of FZRA before eventually going to snow and picking up a couple of inches, it was similar with an arctic airmass bleeding in from the NW slowly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Looks to me like another North and West storm. Airmass is cruddy to say the least, and a fairly weak overrunning wave won't be enough to supply dynamic cooling at all. Yawn. Next... yup just rain here. your area does poorly in marginal events. in fact i'd say it's the worst location in the ny/nj/ct region for snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I don't think this would be a snow event N and W right now either but more likely sleet or freezing rain, this could be a severe ice storm for someone and this includes coastal areas, the low level temps I think will be cold enough, its the mid levels that are more likely to be a problem. This is one sort of setup where the coast can get a decent ice storm. We had an event like this in 1/96 where the coast saw a good 5-6 hours of FZRA before eventually going to snow and picking up a couple of inches, it was similar with an arctic airmass bleeding in from the NW slowly. not seeing that at all, we dont have an arctic high to the north, we have a stalled weak cold front. 35 and snow in the air looks much more likely than any ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 your area does poorly in marginal events. in fact i'd say it's the worst location in the ny/nj/ct region for snow I did well in the Novemeber storm, over 6 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Nam is 2-4 for northeast New Jersey. Still don't like these border line events. Feel it ends up like dec 29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 your area does poorly in marginal events. in fact i'd say it's the worst location in the ny/nj/ct region for snow No way, south fork is way worse, then again you could argue they are at least more prone to getting nasty wraparound out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 It's just not going to happen right now. It's going to get colder with a lot of cold shots,which is only thing that gives me some hope right now. I'm also not discounting the 3rd wave as we've seen those trend north and west over time and stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I don't think anyone will buy into a snow scenario for this event with it as marginal as it is now...especially after the recent bust and this is actually a somewhat similar setup as far as the temp profiles. Last time there was a primary low that maintained it energy as it went well west of us allowing for waa, which is why many areas rained. Models did pick up on this warm layer aloft and showed mainly rain for NYC s and e but many ignored it. Soundings off the 12z nam and 0z euro support mainly snow for NYC, but I would worry about surface temps preventing much accumulation, but timing of the event might help. I still think NYC needs some help, but this looks like a classic SWFE where N and W of the city get a few inches of accumulation before everything shuts off. Good thing is we have a weak wave passing to the south of us, last time the primary to our west killed us with strong waa. Also we have a nice polar vortex to the north and very cold air that can bleed in if you will. It smells like one of those setups where NYC is the battle ground. I really do believe N and W can salvage a few inches from this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Rgem snow for NYC north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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