WeatherX Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Looking at the models from overnite as nice as the 0z GFS looked last nite , I am not inclined to buy it. The 6z run along with the 0z Euro look a lot more reasonable too me. Yes they are Warner but not a loss I think ths is a system that the surface feature is moving more west to east. There are 2 pieces of energy that roll thru ths week. One tues one thrs. You really don't want want either of them too strong or it will aid in pulling the PV north and open the window for the center to come too far north. Let's wait until the system is in the plains and the models can digest all the low level cold air in front of it first . Too early to speak precip amounts or types. Would focus on the cold ths week and mayb putting a little snow down w one of these clippers. Lotta time to sort day 7 detes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Very PD II look for Jan 25-26 threat, we get some overrunning and then a coastal, tons of moisture from this one but the gfs brings it initially a bit too far north for my liking. Hopefully it trends further south which it should given the PV and tons of confluence available. Its actually more similar to January 2005 to me with the redevelopment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 The main focus should be the upcoming cold and possible clipper snows. Inverted troughs are not something we can count on, places further north and east into New England do much better than we do, but it's not out of the question we get something from it. Could be the last couple of mild days for a while so enjoy them. Could hit 50F today and mid 40s tomorrow before the arctic front drops in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Its actually more similar to January 2005 to me with the redevelopment. Yeah, agreed with this. That's immediately what I thought of when I saw that verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Its actually more similar to January 2005 to me with the redevelopment. Having seen it again, I agree. Right now it's depicted as a more northern stream system and a miller B transfer, I do feel it could be a very moisture packed system but they'll be plenty of time to discuss that further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 The main focus should be the upcoming cold and possible clipper snows. Inverted troughs are not something we can count on, places further north and east into New England do much better than we do, but it's not out of the question we get something from it. Could be the last couple of mild days for a while so enjoy them. Could hit 50F today and mid 40s tomorrow before the arctic front drops in. We can hope for a 12/20/95 or 12/27/04 type scenario now, both cases with surface lows a bit too far offshore but nasty 500 vorts that put down 1-4 inches of snow...the 12/20 event was the 2nd phase of the 12/19 storm and was not well forecast, it swung through late AM/mid aftn the next day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 We can hope for a 12/20/95 or 12/27/04 type scenario now, both cases with surface lows a bit too far offshore but nasty 500 vorts that put down 1-4 inches of snow...the 12/20 event was the 2nd phase of the 12/19 storm and was not well forecast, it swung through late AM/mid aftn the next day. The 12/20/95 storm was pre-internet for me...and it has always puzzled me how it evolved...I do recall that during the pre-dawn hours of the 20th (I think the 20th), I had a coating of sleet out here while LGA reported 7 inches on the ground. Assuming it was over, I accepted the results. Within an hour, snow developed and began to fall moderate to heavily throughout the day out here, and when over, we finished with 11 inches. (LGA ultimately had 15). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 The 12/20/95 storm was pre-internet for me...and it has always puzzled me how it evolved...I do recall that during the pre-dawn hours of the 20th (I think the 20th), I had a coating of sleet out here while LGA reported 7 inches on the ground. Assuming it was over, I accepted the results. Within an hour, snow developed and began to fall moderate to heavily throughout the day out here, and when over, we finished with 11 inches. (LGA ultimately had 15). The NAO was raging negative as you can see on the analysis below...I always use this as a great example of what the -NAO can do, the system would have gone way north if not for the 50/50 like feature and vortex in SE canada...you can clearly see the amplifying disturbance at 500 over Missouri would have headed for Buffalo...the 2nd wave on 12/20 was mainly from the 500 vort. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1995/us1219.php http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1995/us1220.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 ..news12 long island have rain..40 deg. for fri 1/25. where's joe cioffi when u need him ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 The NAO was raging negative as you can see on the analysis below...I always use this as a great example of what the -NAO can do, the system would have gone way north if not for the 50/50 like feature and vortex in SE canada...you can clearly see the amplifying disturbance at 500 over Missouri would have headed for Buffalo...the 2nd wave on 12/20 was mainly from the 500 vort. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1995/us1219.php http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1995/us1220.php Interesting, thank you. I do recall some *very* big numbers were forecast for this one as little as 24 hours in advance; although it never quite reached those heights...it was certainly one of the best storms since 1983 and set the tone for that great '95 - '96 season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 ..news12 long island have rain..40 deg. for fri 1/25. where's joe cioffi when u need him ? The best, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 The best, IMO. Yup, don't even know where he is now...don't know the details entirely but that move to WPIX he made for weekends really killed him, News 12 apparently told him they did not want him doing both gigs so he dropped them and never really got going again after that...I think he hoped to eventually be the AM guy on WPIX down the road or maybe was waiting Mr. G's retirement from evenings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 I guess the danger with this one is that the coast experiences mixing issues since there is still that ridge just east of us. That's what happened here on Valentine's day 2007 when the storm was forced to hug the coast too closely. Like others have said, you would really want to see a -NAO to suppress the SE Ridge enough so the storm doesn't trend closer in the last 48 hrs. The early November storm happened during the last solid -NAO phase. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2007/us0214.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Verbatim, storms looks like a snow to rain and then back to snow event. Not too bad, could pull off several inches. Whether there will be mixing issues, I think we'll still see decent accumulations to the coast. The BL isn't torched on the GFS, 850's get as warm as 0C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Yup, don't even know where he is now... I do know...though obviously won't say on a public board for privacy purposes. (Not to sound cryptic; he is perfectly fine) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Yup, don't even know where he is now...don't know the details entirely but that move to WPIX he made for weekends really killed him, News 12 apparently told him they did not want him doing both gigs so he dropped them and never really got going again after that...I think he hoped to eventually be the AM guy on WPIX down the road or maybe was waiting Mr. G's retirement from evenings. ..as far as i know he is still w/news12 LI..rarely used..to bad. remember seeing him back in the 80's..i think it was sachem HS.. he gave a talk..great forecaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 ..as far as i know he is still w/news12 LI..rarely used..to bad. remember seeing him back in the 80's..i think it was sachem HS.. he gave a talk..great forecaster. I do believe he was the first NYC area on air met to make use of the phrase "Long Island" in his forecasts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 I do believe he was the first NYC area on air met to make use of the phrase "Long Island" in his forecasts... ..remember.."joestradamous"..great long ranger too.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Euro ensembles have shifted south for the end of next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Looks like the sref has the .25 contour into NYC for the clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Looks like the sref has the .25 contour into NYC for the clipper. Can you post a link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Wow, SREF's are a rather significant hit, with .10-.25 for everyone! .25 line goes to the Jersey Shore, NYC, all of Long Island and coastal CT. The .50 line is just offshore of Long Island and you can clearly see it is from a coastal low as it is backing the precip into our area off the ocean, heading right toward the NY bight off the ocean. And keep in mind this is with very cold temperatures too, so there is the possibility of higher than 10:1 ratios also. They sent reconnaissance aircraft up yesterday. That data probably just got digested into the model. The following discussion is from Typhoon Tip in the New England forum yesterday. Folks, NCEP: "......THERE IS REASONABLE EVIDENCE OF A COASTAL WAVE DEVELOPING ATOP THIS SLOPED ARCTICFRONT...AND BENEATH A COMPLEX 250MB JET STRUCTURE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. ENOUGH SUPPORT/EVIDENCE DURING THE LAST 48 HOURS TO REQUEST A SERIES OF NOAA G4 WINTER RECON FLIGHTS TO SAMPLE THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC BETWEEN HAWAII AND ALASKA..." Not sure when that sound data would make it into the grid, but clearly there are top minds onto this issue/volatility in the domain for the time frame in question, so it's definitely interesting. I tell you what, the Euro has zippo wiggle room - if that deep layer gets even a little bit more amped when that wavy turns the corner in the OV, that would be a NJ Model bomb *( and I mean actual deepening rates ). Very very close there. One can see why G4 flights are being requested... It has been a long long time since this type of thickness packing has been modeled, and situated so close to the Gulf Stream.. You can't fiddle around with that - that's a like a loaded gun. If run a 110kt 500mb wind stream over the top of that intense of a frontal slope than the models would quite likely be underdone with sfc result. Oh, certainly it's more likely a non-event, but the volatility and profile of potential is just off the charts. NCEP seems to concur enough to send up the G4's This is the plan of the day ... no idea for sure when it gets ingested into the model assimilation. I imagine by 12z tomorrow there's no doubt it's all in there. Definitely complex situation, so hopefully these drops are useful. Will be interesting to see any notable shifts/trends tomorrow! the trick there is to have the S/W be more intense to compensate - hence the G4 missions. Quote 000 NOUS42 KNHC 171731 REPRPD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1230 PM EST THU 17 JANUARY 2013 SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD) VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z JANUARY 2013 WSPOD NUMBER.....12-048 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. FLIGHT ONE --NOAA 49-- . A. P56/ DROP 11(44.3N 151.0W)/ 19/0000Z B. NOAA9 02WSC TRACK56 C. 18/1930Z D. 16 DROPS ON TRACK AS PUBLISHED E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 19/0600Z 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE. $ JWP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Can you post a link? I'm at work . Maybe ABCDEFG will post a link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 I'm at work . Maybe ABCDEFG will post a link.I am getting this off of Stormvista (a pay site) so I can't post the link, but I will try to dig one up somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 will probably change 100 times but Chan 2 and 4 are both saying rain and snow for Fri with temps in the mid to upper 30's. Hopefully it changes to pure snow as we get closer!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Here it is. SREF through hr. 84 total precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 They are showing enhanced snow potential focused right along the inverted troff axis. We can also see decent ratios with the trough so close to the 510 arctic thickness contour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 They are showing enhanced snow potential focused right along the inverted troff axis. Thanks guys. Does have potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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