Possible Snow Threats and Upcoming Cold Spell

[nzucker]

27/13 here...did make it up to 32F this afternoon although my phone showed it a bit colder. That was after a low of 22.6F. Winds are turning south now so we shouldn't get much colder. 

[FreeRain]

 

 

I was a Junior Met. Major at SUNY Oswego that year. Lake Ontario was 75% frozen by the time we returned from XMAS break.  Lake Effect was virtually shut off until late March.  We had 1 synoptic snowfall of 7" in Feb.  Of course I missed out on PDI, but it was fun tracking it on the Old LFM model.  The lowest temp I ever experiened was -23F with a stiff breeze.  My car battery died that night so we did our bar runs by foot.  I absolutely froze my ass off that night.

 

I was a Junior in Oswego that year too. I remember the morning it hit -23F although I thought that was the temperature reported in Syracuse.

 

BTW I had started out as a Met major but switched to Geology.

 

Small world.

[SnowGoose69]

I'm gonna go with my early, gutsy call ahead of the storm(s) lol.....(I've somehow had great accuracy thus far !).....for Tuesday's system I'm going to say up to an inch or so where a heavier snow shower sets up. But in general.....flurries. Anywhere from south to north....not a big storm at all. For the next event later next week I think a general 2-3" snowfall is becoming likely....some areas up to 5

 

The first system could generate something with the low thicknesses and cold temps in the mid-upper levels, it won't take a whole lot of moisture to squeeze something out...I doubt the surface low does much but the strong vort at 500mb is a factor and more importantly there is definitely a legit inverted trof threat with this setup, the 500/700/850 levels all show the necessary ingredients for it and surface reflection is noticeable on the models.  Of course even when the setup is good these things rarely produce or hit New England...some of us can hope for 1-2 inches as of now unless we see a drastic shift in something.

[WintersGrasp]

I'm gonna go with my early, gutsy call ahead of the storm(s) lol.....(I've somehow had great accuracy thus far !).....for Tuesday's system I'm going to say up to an inch or so where a heavier snow shower sets up. But in general.....flurries. Anywhere from south to north....not a big storm at all. For the next event later next week I think a general 2-3" snowfall is becoming likely....some areas up to 5

The first system could generate something with the low thicknesses and cold temps in the mid-upper levels, it won't take a whole lot of moisture to squeeze something out...I doubt the surface low does much but the strong vort at 500mb is a factor and more importantly there is definitely a legit inverted trof threat with this setup, the 500/700/850 levels all show the necessary ingredients for it and surface reflection is noticeable on the models. Of course even when the setup is good these things rarely produce or hit New England...some of us can hope for 1-2 inches as of now unless we see a drastic shift in something.

Agreed..Boston could get a few inches

[Guest Pamela]

 Okay both of you have your goggles on again. I simply stated that DC can get all snow when NYC gets all rain because the temperature gradiant is often alligned west to east rather than north to south.

 

Obviously places further south and west can be snow while the city and LI are rain.

 

Per the numbers, your theory did not come to pass with great frequency during the last 12 winters...

 

Total Snowfall

2000-01 through 2011-12 (last 12 full winters):

 

Brookhaven Lab, L.I. / Upton NWS Offices:

486.8 inches / average of 40.57 inches

 

http://www.bnl.gov/weather/4cast/MonthlySnowfall.htm

 

Washington D.C. / National (now called) Reagan Airport:

179.6 inches / average of 15.00 inches

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/climate/dca/dcasnow.txt

[MJO812]

Clipper on the 0z GFS

 

[WintersGrasp]

An inch in some heavier snow showers for some areas and up to 3 maybe 5 in new england

[MJO812]

GFS is coming in much better with next Friday's storm.

 

Here is 159. Run is still going.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=00ℑ=gfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_159_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

[MJO812]

0z GFS for next Friday

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=00ℑ=gfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_171_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=00ℑ=gfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_174_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=00ℑ=gfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_177_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

[JonClaw]

If only it were tomorrow...

 

[WintersGrasp]

Gfs for next Friday 6-12" here

[uofmiami]

Gfs for next Friday 6-12" here

Looks like next Saturday the 26th!

[MJO812]

It's amazing on all the models are showing a storm for the end of next week.

[WeatherX]

This is a winning 250 jet right here. Good start on the GFS tonight...

 

 

 

 

[JonClaw]

Now if the Euro shows something, it'll be time to get excited.

[MJO812]

Now if the Euro shows something, it'll be time to get excited.

 

 

It did, on the 12z run.

[MJO812]

GEFS for the clipper

 

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/00zgfsensemblep12084.gif

[WeatherX]

Looks like it's going to snow.....

[SnoSki14]

Some nice clipper snows possible due to last minute blowups and then a huge hit from the southern stream way that is now shown to go south of us. A completely different look from just yesterday a two shots of sub -20 850s. 

[IsentropicLift]

Granted only the first few hours of next weeks storm show up but here is the bufkit numbers for the 00z GFS just for fun. Cool to see such low temps inland.

 

KMMU

 

130126/0300Z 171  07009KT  20.2F  SNOW   10:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.126   10:1|  1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.13  100|  0|  0
130126/0600Z 174  04012KT  23.6F  SNOW   13:1| 2.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.159   12:1|  3.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.28  100|  0|  0
130126/0900Z 177  03015KT  23.4F  SNOW   10:1| 1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.185   11:1|  5.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.47  100|  0|  0
130126/1200Z 180  02019KT  17.1F  SNOW    8:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.079   11:1|  5.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.55  100|  0|  0

 

KHPN

 

130126/0300Z 171  08008KT  17.5F  SNOW   13:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.059   13:1|  0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06  100|  0|  0
130126/0600Z 174  05012KT  18.9F  SNOW   14:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.126   13:1|  2.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.19  100|  0|  0
130126/0900Z 177  04016KT  17.5F  SNOW    9:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.180   11:1|  4.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.36  100|  0|  0
130126/1200Z 180  03019KT  12.6F  SNOW   11:1| 2.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.197   11:1|  6.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.56  100|  0|  0

 

KSWF

 

130126/0300Z 171  08005KT  14.8F  SNOW   15:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.094   15:1|  1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09  100|  0|  0
130126/0600Z 174  05008KT  14.8F  SNOW   16:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.111   16:1|  3.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.20  100|  0|  0
130126/0900Z 177  04011KT  14.4F  SNOW   17:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.097   16:1|  4.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.30  100|  0|  0
130126/1200Z 180  04013KT  14.1F  SNOW   16:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.119   16:1|  6.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.42  100|  0|  0

 

130126/0300Z 171  08010KT  24.3F  SNOW    9:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.076    9:1|  0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.08  100|  0|  0
130126/0600Z 174  06012KT  29.9F  SNOW   13:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.141   12:1|  2.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.22  100|  0|  0
130126/0900Z 177  04017KT  30.8F  SNOW   10:1| 2.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.232   11:1|  4.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.45  100|  0|  0
130126/1200Z 180  03023KT  25.1F  SNOW   14:1| 2.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.195   12:1|  7.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.64  100|  0|  0

 

KJFK

 

130126/0300Z 171  08010KT  33.0F  RAIN    8:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.089    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09  100|  0|  0
130126/0600Z 174  06012KT  33.0F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.148    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.24   84|  1| 15
130126/0900Z 177  04017KT  33.0F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.287    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.52   30|  3| 67
130126/1200Z 180  03023KT  33.0F  RAIN   13:1| 3.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.240   0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.76  100|  0|  0

 

JK LOL

 

THE REAL KJFK

 

130126/0300Z 171  08010KT  24.3F  SNOW    8:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.089    8:1|  0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09  100|  0|  0
130126/0600Z 174  06012KT  29.7F  ZRSN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.148    8:1|  0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.24   84|  1| 15
130126/0900Z 177  04017KT  30.8F  ZRSN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.287    8:1|  0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.52   30|  3| 67
130126/1200Z 180  03023KT  24.9F  SNOW   13:1| 3.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.240   12:1|  3.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.76  100|  0|  0




 

[IsentropicLift]

The GFS has another big threat after next Friday as well

[IsentropicLift]

Just for the record, we're looking at around and inch of QPF in the western zones with temps in the teens and twenties and ratios better than 12:1.

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

00Z GFS Total liquid Amounts for 1/25/13-1/27/13:

 

[famartin]

00Z GFS Total liquid Amounts for 1/25/13-1/27/13:

 

00zgfsp72192.gif

 

 

Just for the record, we're looking at around and inch of QPF in the western zones with temps in the teens and twenties and ratios better than 12:1.

 

Map doesn't agree with you.

[IsentropicLift]

Map doesn't agree with you.

i didn't have access to a single frame so I had a guess a little. NCEP site only works for me on loop.

[PB GFI]

Granted only the first few hours of next weeks storm show up but here is the bufkit numbers for the 00z GFS just for fun. Cool to see such low temps inland.

KMMU

130126/0300Z 171 07009KT 20.2F SNOW 10:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.126 10:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.13 100| 0| 0

130126/0600Z 174 04012KT 23.6F SNOW 13:1| 2.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.159 12:1| 3.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.28 100| 0| 0

130126/0900Z 177 03015KT 23.4F SNOW 10:1| 1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.185 11:1| 5.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.47 100| 0| 0

130126/1200Z 180 02019KT 17.1F SNOW 8:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.079 11:1| 5.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.55 100| 0| 0

KHPN

130126/0300Z 171 08008KT 17.5F SNOW 13:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.059 13:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06 100| 0| 0

130126/0600Z 174 05012KT 18.9F SNOW 14:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.126 13:1| 2.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.19 100| 0| 0

130126/0900Z 177 04016KT 17.5F SNOW 9:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.180 11:1| 4.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.36 100| 0| 0

130126/1200Z 180 03019KT 12.6F SNOW 11:1| 2.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.197 11:1| 6.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.56 100| 0| 0

KSWF

130126/0300Z 171 08005KT 14.8F SNOW 15:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.094 15:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09 100| 0| 0

130126/0600Z 174 05008KT 14.8F SNOW 16:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.111 16:1| 3.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.20 100| 0| 0

130126/0900Z 177 04011KT 14.4F SNOW 17:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.097 16:1| 4.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.30 100| 0| 0

130126/1200Z 180 04013KT 14.1F SNOW 16:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.119 16:1| 6.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.42 100| 0| 0

130126/0300Z 171 08010KT 24.3F SNOW 9:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.076 9:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.08 100| 0| 0

130126/0600Z 174 06012KT 29.9F SNOW 13:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.141 12:1| 2.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.22 100| 0| 0

130126/0900Z 177 04017KT 30.8F SNOW 10:1| 2.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.232 11:1| 4.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.45 100| 0| 0

130126/1200Z 180 03023KT 25.1F SNOW 14:1| 2.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.195 12:1| 7.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.64 100| 0| 0

KJFK

130126/0300Z 171 08010KT 33.0F RAIN 8:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.089 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09 100| 0| 0

130126/0600Z 174 06012KT 33.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.148 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.24 84| 1| 15

130126/0900Z 177 04017KT 33.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.287 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.52 30| 3| 67

130126/1200Z 180 03023KT 33.0F RAIN 13:1| 3.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.240 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.76 100| 0| 0

JK LOL

THE REAL KJFK

130126/0300Z 171 08010KT 24.3F SNOW 8:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.089 8:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09 100| 0| 0

130126/0600Z 174 06012KT 29.7F ZRSN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.148 8:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.24 84| 1| 15

130126/0900Z 177 04017KT 30.8F ZRSN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.287 8:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.52 30| 3| 67

130126/1200Z 180 03023KT 24.9F SNOW 13:1| 3.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.240 12:1| 3.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.76 100| 0| 0

[/quote Just saw. Very funny Wish that wasn't a joke. He , I mean JFK would deserve it. .... Lol.

[SnowGoose69]

06z NAM picking up on that inverted trof feature/strong vort now as well as the NMM....

 

[SnoSki14]

Very PD II look for Jan 25-26 threat, we get some overrunning and then a coastal, tons of moisture from this one but the gfs brings it initially a bit too far north for my liking. Hopefully it trends further south which it should given the PV and tons of confluence available. 

[MJO812]

The 6z GEFS also shows an inverted trough  into SNE for the clipper. The placement of the trough is going to change many times until near the event.

[WeatherX]

The 6z GEFS also shows an inverted trough  into SNE for the clipper. The placement of the trough is going to change many times until near the event.

Are you getting intrigued yet?