IsentropicLift Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Haha, yeah, I was about to say that too, that it did bad with last nights event. Where my couple of inches of snow? I will say this, the JMA was the first model to bring back Boxing Day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 I will say this, the JMA was the first model to bring back Boxing Day JMA was the 1st model to see the Feb 11-12,2006 storm from a week away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 The suddenly unstoppable JMA is a hit with the storm Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 I don't have the JMA out to 192. Its on accu - i cant post it . Dont look at it ,you will not sleep tonite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 The suddenly unstoppable JMA is a hit with the storm Tuesday. Always a bit overdone , was generous last nite , so I usually cut em in half . But position wise , its not awful . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Its on accu - i cant post it . Dont look at it ,you will not sleep tonite Lol, why, because it is warm, rainy monsoon and he won't be able to stop crying and won't sleep or because it is January 1996 redux and he'll be too excited to sleep or it is a complete hit for DC-Boston excluding NJ, NYC and Long Island or a whiff for all? Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Its on accu - i cant post it . Dont look at it ,you will not sleep tonite Please share Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Lol, why, because it is warm, rainy monsoon and he won't be able to stop crying and won't sleep or because it is January 1996 redux and he'll be too excited to sleep or it is a complete hit for DC-Boston excluding NJ, NYC and Long Island or a whiff for all? Lol. I can't seem to find a way to find it on accuweather, but the JMA at hr 144 shows a fairly robust negative S/W dropping down through the upper plains at hr 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 The Euro ensemble mean is a little further north than the OP now. So we'll probably need some time for the models to settle down on the exact track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 CPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 the jma @ 192 a rainstorm from albany east.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 The JMA's awful. I would rank it right about with the NAM at 72-84hr and the NOGAPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 the jma @ 192 a rainstorm from albany east.... Dont know if u know Ant , NO bigger snow lover on the board . Hence you wil not sleep . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Man that is cold...850s were -30C with a high overhead.... http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1982/us0118.php in new brunswick, nj low temps: february 1979..... 2/10 minus 4 2/11 minus 5 2/14 minus 3 2/17 minus 2 2/18 minus 5 2/19 minus 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 the jma @ 192 a rainstorm from albany east.... This would be a sad, sad place if that verifies. Coldest air in years only to be clobbered by a rain storm less than 24 hours after the coldest departures are on top of us. Luckily the chance that it verifies as depicted right now is less than nil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Lol, why, because it is warm, rainy monsoon and he won't be able to stop crying and won't sleep or because it is January 1996 redux and he'll be too excited to sleep or it is a complete hit for DC-Boston excluding NJ, NYC and Long Island or a whiff for all? Lol. Lol, why, because it is warm, rainy monsoon and he won't be able to stop crying and won't sleep or because it is January 1996 redux and he'll be too excited to sleep or it is a complete hit for DC-Boston excluding NJ, NYC and Long Island or a whiff for all? Lol. The former ... Its wrong , storms not goin to the lakes ,Dont think we go to 50 with 2 inches of rain . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Dont know if u know Ant , NO bigger snow lover on the board . Hence you wil not sleep . Are you saying it's a big wrapped up coastal? Snow for the interior and rain for the coast or is it rain for everyone except PA and western New England? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 The former ... Its wrong , storms not goin to the lakes ,Dont think we go to 50 with 2 inches of rain . I agree, it has a less than 0 chance of happening exactly as it is depicted right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Are you saying it's a big wrapped up coastal? Snow for the interior and rain for the coast or is it rain for everyone except PA and western New England? No somewhere between the Euro operational and its Ensembles . I dont see some big system running into quebec or wrapping up off the coast . Think theres enough confluence to keep it moving East , where it exits ? its a little too far to see just yet . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 18, 2013 Author Share Posted January 18, 2013 Are you saying it's a big wrapped up coastal? Snow for the interior and rain for the coast or is it rain for everyone except PA and western New England? It has a 996 mb low centered in Central Virginia heading east. For whatever reason though, it has the 0 C 850s all the way to Vermont by the time the system comes. Those thermal profiles are not happening IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 in new brunswick, nj low temps: february 1979..... 2/10 minus 4 2/11 minus 5 2/14 minus 3 2/17 minus 2 2/18 minus 5 2/19 minus 7 1979 was the coldest winter in the US since 1895. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 18Z NAM is basically dry for next Tuesday, maybe a few snow snowers at best. Cold with temps below freezing for the entire area. I personally feel as if there is still room for the system for late next week to be pushed all the way south and turn into a miller A. Boxing day was first depicted to be a bowling ball type of event before it eventually got the big phase all the way down to the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 18, 2013 Author Share Posted January 18, 2013 18z GFS went from a snowstorm to the north of us, to a suppressed solution for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 18z GFS went from a snowstorm to the north of us, to a suppressed solution for next week. We usually have to wait until the euro and ensembles settle on a common solution. But the ensemble mean looks like it would be drier than that OP solution was showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 18z GFS went from a snowstorm to the north of us, to a suppressed solution for next week. Yeah, it's suppressed and then before we get chance, it's already too far east. Big change from the 12z. 18z GFS also A LOT colder. 850's down to -22C, thickness down to 497 (KISP), and brings bulk of the cold air Friday morning; a change resulting from the new suppressed solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lindywx Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 1979 was the coldest winter in the US since 1895. I was a Junior Met. Major at SUNY Oswego that year. Lake Ontario was 75% frozen by the time we returned from XMAS break. Lake Effect was virtually shut off until late March. We had 1 synoptic snowfall of 7" in Feb. Of course I missed out on PDI, but it was fun tracking it on the Old LFM model. The lowest temp I ever experiened was -23F with a stiff breeze. My car battery died that night so we did our bar runs by foot. I absolutely froze my ass off that night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 I was a Junior Met. Major at SUNY Oswego that year. Lake Ontario was 75% frozen by the time we returned from XMAS break. Lake Effect was virtually shut off until late March. We had 1 synoptic snowfall of 7" in Feb. Of course I missed out on PDI, but it was fun tracking it on the Old LFM model. The lowest temp I ever experiened was -23F with a stiff breeze. My car battery died that night so we did our bar runs by foot. I absolutely froze my ass off that night. I had 2 decent winters when I went there and 2 horrible ones. 00-01 and 02-03 were the good ones and even 00-01 was not that great, there was alot of synoptic events there that winter which is somewhat rare, 02-03 we got destroyed with several major lake effect events, as a matter of fact we were closed twice and they had not closed since 1993 up til that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 19, 2013 Author Share Posted January 19, 2013 The 12z ECMWF ENS at days 11-15 have a West Based -NAO, a +PNA, and a deep trough into the eastern two thirds of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 I'm gonna go with my early, gutsy call ahead of the storm(s) lol.....(I've somehow had great accuracy thus far !).....for Tuesday's system I'm going to say up to an inch or so where a heavier snow shower sets up. But in general.....flurries. Anywhere from south to north....not a big storm at all. For the next event later next week I think a general 2-3" snowfall is becoming likely....some areas up to 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 I'm gonna go with my early, gutsy call ahead of the storm(s) lol.....(I've somehow had great accuracy thus far !).....for Tuesday's system I'm going to say up to an inch or so where a heavier snow shower sets up. But in general.....flurries. Anywhere from south to north....not a big storm at all. For the next event later next week I think a general 2-3" snowfall is becoming likely....some areas up to 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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