PB GFI Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 The GFS would be way south but it finds a funky weakness in that high which splits with one piece headed into Quebec and another piece to Bermuda...I'm not sure I buy a high pressure center like that splitting.I think the GFS is making a mistake rushing out the cold air too fast , and not seeing the depth of the cold . The gfs is way south of yesterdays 12z , where it took the LP from madison towards Quebec , today it looks like from Chicago straight off just south of Boston . ( STILL TOO FAR NORTH ) .So much cold in front , above and behind . Same proggs back in DEC from 5 days out and there was nothing like this on the playing field and that corrected south , so I think it comes south to where the Euro is .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Look at the trough after next weekends system .... OHHHH THE HUMANITY . That has to be overdone lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 As I posted in the other thread, I think NYC's major snowstorm waits until the beginning of February. We might see a coating to an inch Tuesday, and then a potential moderate snowstorm with a SWFE/late-blooming coastal, but I'm not seeing a KU monster until February. With the MJO going into Phase 8 as the Kelvin Wave crosses the tropical Pacific, signals are strong for a very powerful PNA spike and falling NAO in early February: gfs0zpna.gif There could be a short moderation after the January 21-25 arctic outbreak, but a snowy/cold pattern will emerge in February. I hope there is a storm in Feb, but it has to allow me to get to florida on Feb 5th and back on the 12th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 The euro ensembles have been on the idea of the CAD holding on and the storm moving further south. the same thing happened with the december storm that the ensembles were pegging south. We just have to watch for an icy transition zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Look at the trough after next weekends system .... OHHHH THE HUMANITY . That has to be overdone lol Cold air in the wake of a potentially significant snowfall? Someone pinch me, I must be dreaming, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Feb 1979 was -10 or greater from the 9th-19th (1951-70 normals)...-25 two days and other -20 days...Dec-Feb 1976-77 had 30 or so days -10 or more...That's one third of the winter... Low temps at Syosset February 1979: 2/9 +4 2/10 -1 2/11 -3 2/12 0 2/13 +3 2/14 -1 2/15 +10 2/16 +10 2/17 +3 2/18 -4 Also on this date in 1982 at Syosset (January 18, 1982), the low temp was -6. We had fewer biting insects buzzing around in the spring back in those years. I really miss the 0 days. We've hit zero only once here since 1995 (0 on 1/17/2009). Other days that came close were: +1: 2/5/96, 1/15/04, 1/16/04 +2: 1/6/96, 1/19/97 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 The euro ensembles have been on the idea of the CAD holding on and the storm moving further south. the same thing happened with the december storm that the ensembles were pegging south. We just have to watch for an icy transition zone. 12zeuro850mbTSLPUS168.gif That could be a pretty nice system actually, if it doesn't become super-amplified and stays south. Verbatim that looks like mostly snow with maybe some mixing at the end. A clipper-esque system is likely our best shot at seeing any accumulating snow in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Cold air in the wake of a potentially significant snowfall? Someone pinch me, I must be dreaming, lol. I say overdone , because you would be looking at 10 below for 8 to 9 days straight and i think thats a little bullish fo me to buy . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 I say overdone , because you would be looking at 10 below for 8 to 9 days straight and i think thats a little bullish fo me to buy . Overdone perhaps but even if it is around like 30-33 for highs and maybe 18-23 for lows, while that is below normal still it is not 10 below the average necessarily and is not unreasonable. It would be nice for a change to yield warning criteria snows and not have it start melting immediately after it is done accumulating. Been awhile since I could say that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Low temps at Syosset February 1979: 2/9 +4 2/10 -1 2/11 -3 2/12 0 2/13 +3 2/14 -1 2/15 +10 2/16 +10 2/17 +3 2/18 -4 Also on this date in 1982 at Syosset (January 18, 1982), the low temp was -6. We had fewer biting insects buzzing around in the spring back in those years. I really miss the 0 days. We've hit zero only once here since 1995 (0 on 1/17/2009). Other days that came close were: +1: 2/5/96, 1/15/04, 1/16/04 +2: 1/6/96, 1/19/97 Man that is cold...850s were -30C with a high overhead.... http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1982/us0118.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 18, 2013 Author Share Posted January 18, 2013 The really nice and cold anticedent airmass will definitely help us out in this type of a set-up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Man that is cold...850s were -30C with a high overhead.... http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1982/us0118.php The day before (1/17/82) kind of gets overlooked as a cold day because the high temperature occured at midnight. The day time high temperature at Islip on 1/17/1982 was only +5. The temperature dropped from 26 at midnight to +1 at 9am and then barely rebounded during the day. ISP fell to -2 before midnight on the 17th, but then could only manage -1 on the 18th. Here are LI low temps for 1/18/1982: Patchogue -10 Bridgehampton -10 Riverhead -8 Westbury -7 Syosset -6 Setauket -4 Centerport -4 Wantagh -2 Islip -1 Mineola +4 There was also adequate snowcover, ranging from around 6" in southwest Nassau up to nearly a foot in Suffolk JFK went below 0 (-1) on the 17th and then had a low of 0 on the 18th, as did NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 The 1980's were obviously much colder than today, especially in the east. From the late 70's until the late 80's we can always count on at least one cold month and winters were probably 2 or more degrees colden than now in the big cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 I really hope the City gets down to near 0 next week. I haven't seen an airmass like that in several years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 The 1980's were obviously much colder than today, especially in the east. From the late 70's until the late 80's we can always count on at least one cold month and winters were probably 2 or more degrees colden than now in the big cities. Yes but in the 1980's you could rarely count on snow. It's a give and take sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 I really hope the City gets down to near 0 next week. I haven't seen an airmass like that in several years. Highly unlikely. Getting below 15 will be a victory at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Highly unlikely. Getting below 15 will be a victory at this point Agree. I forgot what year it was but my low was near 0. Could have been back in either 2004 or 2005. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Agree. I forgot what year it was but my low was near 0. Could have been back in either 2004 or 2005. 2004 had a really cold and relatively snowy january. Did get down to near zero in nyc during the heart of the cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 2004 had a really cold and relatively snowy january. Did get down to near zero in nyc during the heart of the cold First time in a long time the south shore back bays froze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 18, 2013 Author Share Posted January 18, 2013 Verbatim, the 12z ECMWF is a 6-10" snowfall for NYC next friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormwarn Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Agree. I forgot what year it was but my low was near 0. Could have been back in either 2004 or 2005. January 10, 2004, I had a low of zero. Completely forgot about that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 January 10, 2004, I had a low of zero. Completely forgot about that! I remember waking up to a temp of 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 First time in a long time the south shore back bays froze. Great positioning of the highs north of the lakes to drive a north to northwest flow here that month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Verbatim, the 12z ECMWF is a 6-10" snowfall for NYC next friday. Yeh , and with the next air mass coming over the top of it , may be as cold as the upcoming lows wed and ths am . even if 850s are bit warmer with the 2 nd shot . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 JMA for Tuesday http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_96HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Ant post that JMA 192 , LOL ... Dirty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 JMA for Tuesday http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_96HR.gif I'll believe it when I see it. It did such a bang up job with last nights event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 I'll believe it when I see it. It did such a bang up job with last nights event Haha, yeah, I was about to say that too, that it did bad with last nights event. Where my couple of inches of snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Ant post that JMA 192 , LOL ... Dirty I don't have the JMA out to 192. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Here is the Nogaps for the Clipper And for the storm next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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