Snow_Miser Posted January 13, 2013 Author Share Posted January 13, 2013 18z GFS hits the southern Appalachians, Virginia and the DelMarva pretty good on Thursday night. It even sneaks some light precipitation into southern NJ on Thursday night Pretty large shift NW with the precipitation shield on the 18z GFS. Not sure what 00z would show considering 18z jumped that far NW with the precipitation shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 So far I'm not enthused for anything more than a coating of snow/sleet/slop at TTN. Though I suppose that would be epic for this month so far, back there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 So far I'm not enthused for anything more than a coating of snow/sleet/slop at TTN. Though I suppose that would be epic for this month so far, back there. I ll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 13, 2013 Author Share Posted January 13, 2013 Congrats Somerset and Hunterdon counties on the 18z GFS for Waves 1 and 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Three of the individual ensemble members are nice hits on Friday and one is a nice hit on Saturday. At least there is something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 I don't see more than light rain for the Tuesday or Wednesday threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 I don't see more than light rain for the Tuesday or Wednesday threat There's definitely potential for some frozen precip, though where is questionable. Like I said, right now I wouldn't get excited for any more than a coating. If you get more, feel lucky. If you get less, don't be upset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 I don't see more than light rain for the Tuesday or Wednesday threat I agree, I don't see much of a threat for frozen precip except the usual suspects, far N&W and the higher elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 NAM looks pretty decent for wave 2. Prints out a QPF of about 0.25" by areas just n of Trenton. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/nam/00/nam_namer_069_precip_p24.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 0z Nam at hour 60 has some snow for our area http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/nam/00/nam_namer_060_10m_wnd_precip.gif http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/nam/00/nam_namer_060_sim_radar.gif Continues into hour 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 NAM is all snow for a good chunk of NJ for wave 2. The precip p type maps on the bottom left are pretty accurate so FWIW http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETANE9_0z/etaloop.html#picture .25"+ of precip from areas just north of Trenton s and e. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Ukie looks really interesting. Colder and more precip than the GFS for the 2nd wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 Surprised there's not more discussion going on about this. UKMET is colder and is wetter than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Surprised there's not more discussion going on about this. UKMET is colder and is wetter than the GFS. temp wise the ukie looks exactly the same thermal wise. Gets the 850s up to zucker land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 temp wise the ukie looks exactly the same thermal wise. Gets the 850s up to zucker land. Yikes.. How do the lower levels look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Yikes.. How do the lower levels look? not sure, i only looked at 850s. Here is the 850 map at hrs 66 and 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 2 light rain events and a snowstorm to our south, doesn't that just suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 not sure, i only looked at 850s. Here is the 850 map at hrs 66 and 72 [img=http://weather.uwyo.edu/models/fcst/images/2013011400.f072.850.p06inonetmpchghtnone.uslcc.ukmet.gif] Ukie is also much wetter. Through hour 60, .25"-.50" for NYC with .50"+ south of Sandy Hook. Event is over by hour 63-66. So those hour 72 maps are well after event is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 An hour 54 ukie 850 map would be more useful. Do you have it Tombo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Ukie is also much wetter. Through hour 60, .25"-.50" for NYC with .50"+ south of Sandy Hook. Event is over by hour 63-66. So those hour 72 maps are well after event is over. ok, but i was saying it doesn't look colder than the gfs, looks the same. At least from the 12 hr increments they match up pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 And hour 54 ukie map would be more useful. Do you have it Tombo? no, after hr 48 it switches to 12 hr increments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Soundings for hour 54, look just cold enough for the city. The precip is much heavier then the gfs and it has nearly double the amount by hour 60. where do you get soundings for the ukmet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Ukie hours 54-60: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 where do you get soundings for the ukmet? I apologize. The sounding was for hour 60. Looks just cold enough at that hour and after .25"-.50" has just fallen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Surprised there's not more discussion going on about this. UKMET is colder and is wetter than the GFS. mainly because thats rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Ggem is pretty impressive for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Ggem is pretty impressive for the area. As cold as the NAM but more precip. .25"-.50" for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 have to agree with nor'easter and jetski this looks like a rain event except for maybe the n&w suburbs..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lisnow66 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Would be pretty dismal to have rain here and then when the cold arrives all the snow stays to the south. Maybe before the cold leaves we will get our shot at a snowstorm. Oh well. That's how it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Yes it will be dismal.. Washington might just end up with more snow then us for the month of Jan if they get a storm at the end of the week.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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