Possible Snow Threats and Upcoming Cold Spell

[JonClaw]

How would that help anyone? BTW, next snow threat will likely be at the tail end in the series of arctic outbreaks.

 

Is that the storm around the 26th?

 

Verbatim, looks like a rain-to-heavy snow event. Truncation on the 12z GFS ruins it though.

[SnoSki14]

Is that the storm around the 26th?

 

Verbatim, looks like a rain-to-heavy snow event. Truncation on the 12z GFS ruins it though.

 

Strongly believe it will go further south than depicted. 

[bluewave]

Mon - Thrs next will average 10 -15 below average . You guys do realize thats a cold air mass when you consider theres no Snow on the ground .

If anyone doesnt think thats cold , go find the last time NYC was 10 -15 below for 4 days . Its not as common as you would think .

Bet its close to 1 in every 3 yrs , if you go back

 

My guess is that NYC will probably be able to record between 1-3 days with a -10 or lower departure next week.

Even in 2009 the cold ran out of gas after 3 days with a much colder airmass.

[ict1523]

How would that help anyone? BTW, next snow threat will likely be at the tail end in the series of arctic outbreaks.

Some of us like severe cold as much as snow.

[nzucker]

My guess is that NYC will probably be able to record between 1-3 days with a -10 or lower departure next week.

Even in 2009 the cold ran out of gas after 3 days with a much colder airmass.

I would think Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday are locks for -10 departures, maybe more, with 850s around -20c. Monday and Friday are questionable but close. The air mass is only 2-3c warmer than January 2009.

[PB GFI]

My guess is that NYC will probably be able to record between 1-3 days with a -10 or lower departure next week.

Even in 2009 the cold ran out of gas after 3 days with a much colder airmass.

Possible ... Models numbers like to bust with low level cold air . I cant tell you for sure if tis 3 days or 4 days . but i think MON - THRS we avg 10 below normal min . , now that b minus 15 at its height , but doesnt displace fast.

Would like to know how mnay times in last 30 yrs we hav 4 days of minus 10 ... just dont think its common .

[bluewave]

Possible ... Models numbers like to bust with low level cold air . I cant tell you for sure if tis 3 days or 4 days . but i think MON - THRS we avg 10 below normal min . , now that b minus 15 at its height , but doesnt displace fast.

Would like to know how mnay times in last 30 yrs we hav 4 days of minus 10 ... just dont think its common .

 

I think the last winter dates may have been in February 2007 with 5  -10 or lower degree departure days in a row unless I am

missing one since then. I believe the modern record was back in February 1979 with 11 -10 or lower days in a row.

[Allsnow]

Ggem forces the low south of us at he end of next week. Really nice storm

[Allsnow]

Gefs also bring .1 to NYC Monday night and forces next week storm under us like ggem

[nzucker]

Some of us like severe cold as much as snow.

The 12z GFS trended a bit colder with 850s of -21C to -22C during the height of the outbreak Wednesday. 

 

It also has another outbreak in early February with 850s again dipping to -20C behind a clipper. This was a very cold run with several snow threats, encouraging. 

[uncle W]

I think the last winter dates may have been in February 2007 with 5  -10 or lower degree departure days in a row unless I am

missing one since then. I believe the modern record was back in February 1979 with 11 -10 or lower days in a row.

Feb 1979 was -10 or greater from the 9th-19th (1951-70 normals)...-25 two days and other -20 days...Dec-Feb 1976-77 had 30 or so days -10 or more...That's one third of the winter...

[bluewave]

Feb 1979 was -10 or greater from the 9th-19th (1951-70 normals)...-25 two days and other -20 days...Dec-Feb 1976-77 had 30 or so days -10 or more...That's one third of the winter...

 

Yeah, we had the lowest reading of 0 on the 18th with the Arctic high that got close to 1050 mb right overhead.

 

[IsentropicLift]

Ggem forces the low south of us at he end of next week. Really nice storm

If you look at the surface maps from the GGEM it's actually the southern stream S/W that comes up, not the previous northern stream wave that was being depicted as a cutter. Either way, nice setup.

[famartin]

Mon - Thrs next will average 10 -15 below average . You guys do realize thats a cold air mass when you consider theres no Snow on the ground .

If anyone doesnt think thats cold , go find the last time NYC was 10 -15 below for 4 days . Its not as common as you would think .

 

November:

766CXUS51 KOKX 010701CF6NYCPRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6)                                          STATION:   CENTRAL PARK NY                                          MONTH:     NOVEMBER                                          YEAR:      2012                                          LATITUDE:   40 46 N                                          LONGITUDE:  73 58 W  TEMPERATURE IN F:       :PCPN:    SNOW:  WIND      :SUNSHINE: SKY     :PK WND================================================================================1   2   3   4   5  6A  6B    7    8   9   10  11  12  13   14  15   16   17  18                                     12Z  AVG MX 2MINDY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD  WTR  SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX    SPD DR================================================================================ 1  51  43  47  -5  18   0 0.00  0.0    0  5.9 14 260   M    M   5        19 250 2  53  42  48  -4  17   0 0.00  0.0    0  6.6 16 290   M    M   9        28 270 3  51  40  46  -6  19   0 0.00  0.0    0  8.4 18 300   M    M   4        29 310 4  51  39  45  -6  20   0 0.00  0.0    0  6.6 14 290   M    M   3        19 340 5  45  35  40 -11  25   0 0.00  0.0    0  4.8 13  60   M    M   5        20 300 6  42  31  37 -14  28   0 0.00  0.0    0  5.6 12  40   M    M   0        20  10 7  41  31  36 -14  29   0 1.12  4.3    0 10.5 22  20   M    M   7 12     33  40 8  48  32  40 -10  25   0 0.06  0.4    4  7.2 16 300   M    M   7 18     28 310 9  53  36  45  -5  20   0 0.00  0.0    0  8.1 16 300   M    M   0        26 29010  55  42  49  -1  16   0 0.00  0.0    0  1.5  9 290   M    M   5 8      22  3011  64  50  57   8   8   0 0.00  0.0    0  2.6  8 160   M    M   2 18     16 24012  66  48  57   8   8   0 0.00  0.0    0  3.9 15 180   M    M   3 128    24 18013  62  40  51   2  14   0 0.09  0.0    0  6.1 13  50   M    M   9 1      22 29014  47  37  42  -6  23   0 0.00  0.0    0  6.4 15  60   M    M   1        21  3015  45  35  40  -8  25   0 0.00  0.0    0  4.8 13  80   M    M   0        17  5016  46  38  42  -6  23   0 0.00  0.0    0  4.8 13  30   M    M   0        18  3017  51  39  45  -2  20   0 0.00  0.0    0  5.1 12  30   M    M   0        16  3018  49  38  44  -3  21   0 0.00  0.0    0  6.4 13  60   M    M   1        17  6019  47  37  42  -5  23   0 0.00  0.0    0  5.7 14  60   M    M   4        20  9020  51  40  46   0  19   0 0.00  0.0    0  4.1  9  40   M    M   0        12  3021  53  40  47   1  18   0 0.00  0.0    0  4.5 10  70   M    M   0        15  5022  54  41  48   2  17   0 0.00  0.0    0  2.6  9  70   M    M   0        12  6023  56  43  50   5  15   0 0.01  0.0    0  5.0 12 250   M    M   2        17 17024  50  35  43  -2  22   0 0.00  0.0    0 10.2 21 290   M    M   3        34 29025  40  33  37  -8  28   0 0.00  0.0    0  6.8 15 240   M    M   4        28 24026  48  36  42  -2  23   0 0.00  0.0    0  5.3 15 280   M    M   1        22 29027  42  34  38  -6  27   0 0.53    T    0  5.8 13  20   M    M  10 1      20  5028  41  34  38  -6  27   0 0.00  0.0    0  5.5 14 280   M    M   4        21 29029  43  34  39  -4  26   0 0.00  0.0    0  6.6 15 240   M    M   0        26 24030  46  38  42  -1  23   0 0.00  0.0    0  5.7 18  70   M    M   5        25  50================================================================================SM 1491 1141       627   0  1.81     4.7 173.1          M       94================================================================================AV 49.7 38.0                               5.8 FASTST   M    M   3    MAX(MPH)                                 MISC ---->  # 22  20               # 34  290================================================================================NOTES:# LAST OF SEVERAL OCCURRENCESCOLUMN 17 PEAK WIND IN M.P.H.PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6) , PAGE 2                                          STATION:  CENTRAL PARK NY                                          MONTH:    NOVEMBER                                          YEAR:     2012                                          LATITUDE:   40 46 N                                          LONGITUDE:  73 58 W[TEMPERATURE DATA]      [PRECIPITATION DATA]       SYMBOLS USED IN COLUMN 16AVERAGE MONTHLY: 43.9   TOTAL FOR MONTH:   1.81    1 = FOG OR MISTDPTR FM NORMAL:  -3.8   DPTR FM NORMAL:   -2.21    2 = FOG REDUCING VISIBILITYHIGHEST:    66 ON 12    GRTST 24HR  1.18 ON  7- 8      TO 1/4 MILE OR LESSLOWEST:     31 ON  7, 6                            3 = THUNDER                        SNOW, ICE PELLETS, HAIL    4 = ICE PELLETS                        TOTAL MONTH:   4.7 INCHES  5 = HAIL                        GRTST 24HR   4.3 ON   M    6 = FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE                        GRTST DEPTH:   4 ON  8     7 = DUSTSTORM OR SANDSTORM:                                                       VSBY 1/2 MILE OR LESS                                                   8 = SMOKE OR HAZE[NO. OF DAYS WITH]      [WEATHER - DAYS WITH]      9 = BLOWING SNOW                                                   X = TORNADOMAX 32 OR BELOW:   0    0.01 INCH OR MORE:   5MAX 90 OR ABOVE:   0    0.10 INCH OR MORE:   2MIN 32 OR BELOW:   3    0.50 INCH OR MORE:   2MIN  0 OR BELOW:   0    1.00 INCH OR MORE:   1[HDD (BASE 65) ]TOTAL THIS MO.   627    CLEAR  (SCALE 0-3)  14DPTR FM NORMAL   107    PTCLDY (SCALE 4-7)  13TOTAL FM JUL 1   871    CLOUDY (SCALE 8-10)  3DPTR FM NORMAL    38[CDD (BASE 65) ]TOTAL THIS MO.     0DPTR FM NORMAL    -1    [PRESSURE DATA]TOTAL FM JAN 1  1277    HIGHEST SLP M ON MDPTR FM NORMAL   172    LOWEST  SLP 29.57 ON  1[REMARKS]#FINAL-11-12#

[PB GFI]

November:

766CXUS51 KOKX 010701CF6NYCPRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6)                                          STATION:   CENTRAL PARK NY                                          MONTH:     NOVEMBER                                          YEAR:      2012                                          LATITUDE:   40 46 N                                          LONGITUDE:  73 58 W  TEMPERATURE IN F:       :PCPN:    SNOW:  WIND      :SUNSHINE: SKY     :PK WND================================================================================1   2   3   4   5  6A  6B    7    8   9   10  11  12  13   14  15   16   17  18                                     12Z  AVG MX 2MINDY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD  WTR  SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX    SPD DR================================================================================ 1  51  43  47  -5  18   0 0.00  0.0    0  5.9 14 260   M    M   5        19 250 2  53  42  48  -4  17   0 0.00  0.0    0  6.6 16 290   M    M   9        28 270 3  51  40  46  -6  19   0 0.00  0.0    0  8.4 18 300   M    M   4        29 310 4  51  39  45  -6  20   0 0.00  0.0    0  6.6 14 290   M    M   3        19 340 5  45  35  40 -11  25   0 0.00  0.0    0  4.8 13  60   M    M   5        20 300 6  42  31  37 -14  28   0 0.00  0.0    0  5.6 12  40   M    M   0        20  10 7  41  31  36 -14  29   0 1.12  4.3    0 10.5 22  20   M    M   7 12     33  40 8  48  32  40 -10  25   0 0.06  0.4    4  7.2 16 300   M    M   7 18     28 310 9  53  36  45  -5  20   0 0.00  0.0    0  8.1 16 300   M    M   0        26 29010  55  42  49  -1  16   0 0.00  0.0    0  1.5  9 290   M    M   5 8      22  3011  64  50  57   8   8   0 0.00  0.0    0  2.6  8 160   M    M   2 18     16 24012  66  48  57   8   8   0 0.00  0.0    0  3.9 15 180   M    M   3 128    24 18013  62  40  51   2  14   0 0.09  0.0    0  6.1 13  50   M    M   9 1      22 29014  47  37  42  -6  23   0 0.00  0.0    0  6.4 15  60   M    M   1        21  3015  45  35  40  -8  25   0 0.00  0.0    0  4.8 13  80   M    M   0        17  5016  46  38  42  -6  23   0 0.00  0.0    0  4.8 13  30   M    M   0        18  3017  51  39  45  -2  20   0 0.00  0.0    0  5.1 12  30   M    M   0        16  3018  49  38  44  -3  21   0 0.00  0.0    0  6.4 13  60   M    M   1        17  6019  47  37  42  -5  23   0 0.00  0.0    0  5.7 14  60   M    M   4        20  9020  51  40  46   0  19   0 0.00  0.0    0  4.1  9  40   M    M   0        12  3021  53  40  47   1  18   0 0.00  0.0    0  4.5 10  70   M    M   0        15  5022  54  41  48   2  17   0 0.00  0.0    0  2.6  9  70   M    M   0        12  6023  56  43  50   5  15   0 0.01  0.0    0  5.0 12 250   M    M   2        17 17024  50  35  43  -2  22   0 0.00  0.0    0 10.2 21 290   M    M   3        34 29025  40  33  37  -8  28   0 0.00  0.0    0  6.8 15 240   M    M   4        28 24026  48  36  42  -2  23   0 0.00  0.0    0  5.3 15 280   M    M   1        22 29027  42  34  38  -6  27   0 0.53    T    0  5.8 13  20   M    M  10 1      20  5028  41  34  38  -6  27   0 0.00  0.0    0  5.5 14 280   M    M   4        21 29029  43  34  39  -4  26   0 0.00  0.0    0  6.6 15 240   M    M   0        26 24030  46  38  42  -1  23   0 0.00  0.0    0  5.7 18  70   M    M   5        25  50================================================================================SM 1491 1141       627   0  1.81     4.7 173.1          M       94================================================================================AV 49.7 38.0                               5.8 FASTST   M    M   3    MAX(MPH)                                 MISC ---->  # 22  20               # 34  290================================================================================NOTES:# LAST OF SEVERAL OCCURRENCESCOLUMN 17 PEAK WIND IN M.P.H.PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6) , PAGE 2                                          STATION:  CENTRAL PARK NY                                          MONTH:    NOVEMBER                                          YEAR:     2012                                          LATITUDE:   40 46 N                                          LONGITUDE:  73 58 W[TEMPERATURE DATA]      [PRECIPITATION DATA]       SYMBOLS USED IN COLUMN 16AVERAGE MONTHLY: 43.9   TOTAL FOR MONTH:   1.81    1 = FOG OR MISTDPTR FM NORMAL:  -3.8   DPTR FM NORMAL:   -2.21    2 = FOG REDUCING VISIBILITYHIGHEST:    66 ON 12    GRTST 24HR  1.18 ON  7- 8      TO 1/4 MILE OR LESSLOWEST:     31 ON  7, 6                            3 = THUNDER                        SNOW, ICE PELLETS, HAIL    4 = ICE PELLETS                        TOTAL MONTH:   4.7 INCHES  5 = HAIL                        GRTST 24HR   4.3 ON   M    6 = FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE                        GRTST DEPTH:   4 ON  8     7 = DUSTSTORM OR SANDSTORM:                                                       VSBY 1/2 MILE OR LESS                                                   8 = SMOKE OR HAZE[NO. OF DAYS WITH]      [WEATHER - DAYS WITH]      9 = BLOWING SNOW                                                   X = TORNADOMAX 32 OR BELOW:   0    0.01 INCH OR MORE:   5MAX 90 OR ABOVE:   0    0.10 INCH OR MORE:   2MIN 32 OR BELOW:   3    0.50 INCH OR MORE:   2MIN  0 OR BELOW:   0    1.00 INCH OR MORE:   1[HDD (BASE 65) ]TOTAL THIS MO.   627    CLEAR  (SCALE 0-3)  14DPTR FM NORMAL   107    PTCLDY (SCALE 4-7)  13TOTAL FM JUL 1   871    CLOUDY (SCALE 8-10)  3DPTR FM NORMAL    38[CDD (BASE 65) ]TOTAL THIS MO.     0DPTR FM NORMAL    -1    [PRESSURE DATA]TOTAL FM JAN 1  1277    HIGHEST SLP M ON MDPTR FM NORMAL   172    LOWEST  SLP 29.57 ON  1[REMARKS]#FINAL-11-12#

im sure u can find that in a june too....

WINTER DEC - MARCH , how many times in last 30 yrs do u find 4 days in a row -10 .

Dont thnk its a yearly event

[famartin]

Mon - Thrs next will average 10 -15 below average . You guys do realize thats a cold air mass when you consider theres no Snow on the ground .

If anyone doesnt think thats cold , go find the last time NYC was 10 -15 below for 4 days . Its not as common as you would think .

Bet its close to 1 in every 3 yrs , if you go back

November 2012, May 2010, October 2009, November 2008 are the instances I found in the last 5 years (as far back as F6's are available).  So almost once a year.

[SnowGoose69]

I cannot tell from the 24 hour frames but it appears just looking at the surface the Euro may be close to something from 72-96

[famartin]

im sure u can find that in a june too....

WINTER DEC - MARCH , how many times in last 30 yrs do u find 4 days in a row -10 .

Dont thnk its a yearly event

You didn't say that

 

But didn't find any instance in the last 5 years.

[PB GFI]

You didn't say that

 

But didn't find any instance in the last 5 years.

I did in a later post . The point was if people thought - 10 for 4 days in a rown in NYC was no big deal . I wanted to point out that its not as common as one would think .

[Dsnowx53]

I cannot tell from the 24 hour frames but it appears just looking at the surface the Euro may be close to something from 72-96

 

Some inverted trough show showers show up on the run, with most of the activity just to our north, though. 

[SnowGoose69]

Gefs also bring .1 to NYC Monday night and forces next week storm under us like ggem

It seems 6-7 of the 12 members are way more amped than the Op run but they are generally a bit too late for us...not Boston though.

[Dsnowx53]

Euro looks pretty good for the day 7 event, as the low as of now is trying to slide to the south of us. 

[PB GFI]

I did in a later post . The point was if people thought - 10 for 4 days in a rown in NYC was no big deal . I wanted to point out that its not as common as one would think .

I may not have said last 30 yrs ... but i MEANT IT lol .

[SnowGoose69]

Euro looks pretty good for the day 7 event, as the low as of now is trying to slide to the south of us. 

It looked terrible to me at 144, but I guess it didn't blow up at 168 like it appeared it was going to.

[PB GFI]

Euro looks pretty good for the day 7 event, as the low as of now is trying to slide to the south of us. 

Nice bowling ball .

[Dsnowx53]

The track isn't 100% ideal, but the antecedent airmass being quite cold really helps us out. 

[SnowGoose69]

That right there shows you how good the Euro is...notice how it actually keeps the 850s cold ahead of that storm and actually picks up on the strength of that high at 168 hours....most models would just boot the high out quickly.

[PB GFI]

The trend over the last 24 hours has been south , the Euro is south of yesterday , as is the GFS . Its not perfect yet , and may not be " perfect " in the end . But theres goin to be plenty of low level cold air for the models to try and figure how to displace .

As it iat 168 its snowing under minus 10 air ..... I mean when hav we seen that this yr

[SnowGoose69]

The trend over the last 24 hours has been south , the Euro is south of yesterday , as is the GFS . Its not perfect yet , and may not be " perfect " in the end . But theres goin to be plenty of low level cold air for the models to try and figure how to displace . As it iat 168 its snowing under minus 10 air ..... I mean when hav we seen that this yr

 

The GFS would be way south but it finds a funky weakness in that high which splits with one piece headed into Quebec and another piece to Bermuda...I'm not sure I buy a high pressure center like that splitting.

[patrick05]

Is it the same storm from 216hr last nght or has the Euro lost that one??